For sure Romney had better do very, very well. Hard numbers to overcome;
President Obama 265 Governor Romney 191
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map
Colorado................ President Obama 2.9 ............9 ev
Florida....................President Obama 3.2................29 ev
Iowa.......................President Obama 3.7...............6 ev
Nevada...................President Obama 3.8/.................6 ev
New Hampshire......President Obama 3.0.................4 ev
North Carolina........President Obama 1.1...................15 ev
Virginia..................President Obama 3.7....................13 ev
President Obama, at present, leads in all of the tossup states. With the exception of New Hampshire, he needs only win in one of them to win with the present numbers.
Governor Romney is going to have to win the debates resoundingly to make up this kind of ground. Not likely to happen.