320 Years of History
Gold Member
Money has no utility to me beyond a certain point. Its utility is entirely in building an organization and getting the resources out to the poorest in the world.
-- Bill Gates
-- Bill Gates
Introduction:
Let me be clear from the get go. I do not have a problem with Trump's having availed himself of the tax laws that allow him the likely net operating loss (NOL) carryforward (see also: The Net Operating Loss Carryback and Carryforward - AccountingTools). It was allowed and that's that.
That said, I don't care who one is, single handedly being the person responsible for the business decisions that resulted in a company's (a company the size of Trump's at the time) losing nearly a billion dollars in one year is enough to get pretty much any CEO fired, and most especially a CEO who is as closely involved in his business as Trump is in his. Now it didn't get Trump fired because his businesses are privately held and he's now as then the primary holder of them and the other owners can't sell their shares of ownership in it on the open market.
About the NOL itself:
For whatever tax deductions it gave him, losing $916M dollars in one year is not a smart thing to do. Nobody, nobody starts a business year or plans for the following year by thinking, "Okay. I'm going to lose nearly a billion dollars because it'll give me NOLs that will reduce my income tax liability for years to come." Operating losses are something that happens as a result of bad decision making. Why the decision(s) were bad is beside the point. They were very bad, terrible in fact, business decisions and deducting their cost on one's tax return is nothing more than making the most of a very, very bad business decision.
Now I haven't looked at the full return that's been making the news recently, but I do know that the -$916M figure being cited may not actually be the "starting" sum of the NOL Trump had. That figure could well be the sum carried forward, and then only using part of it to offset his 1995 income tax liability, rather than representing the actual sum of an operating loss he experienced in 1995.
Just to put Trump's NOL into perspective consider this. If you were to earn $100M in 2016 and pay federal income taxes at 30% (meaning you don't do much at all to minimize your tax liability), you'd have a preliminary $30M federal income tax liability. Now if you had a $900M NOL carryforward from 2015, you'd have an actual tax bill of $0. In 2017, unless you have a preliminary federal income tax liability of $870M,. you will also pay zero in federal income taxes.
Let's look at a $900M NOL a slightly different way. Assuming one pays taxes at 15% (that was Mitt Romney's effective tax rate), how much must one earn before all of a $900M NOL is "used up?" $6,000,000,000. One would need to earn $6B over the course of the following 20 years, or 18 years if one exercised the two year carryback election. Bear in mind the preceding figures assume one actually has a preliminary tax bill to begin with.
Frankly, I think 15% as an effective tax rate for Trump's companies is an overestimation of what his rate would be. The reason I think that is what I understand to be the average effective tax rate, according to a NYU Stern School report, in the industries in which he does business:
- Hotels: 11.34%
- REIT: 2.17%
- Real Estate Development: 1.06%
- Real Estate Operations and Services: 11.19%
- Real Estate General/Diversified: 9.4%
- Entertainment: 3.25%
What about Trump's so-called "comeback" after having a $916M NOL?
Well, we all know that Trump thinks his business acumen is "the best thing since sliced bread." Analysts seem to differ. Based on John Griffin's analysis, Trump has underperformed his peers by some 48% to 57%. That says more about just how easy it is to make money in Trump's industry. There aren't many places where one can underperform and still be a billionaire, or as near to being one as makes no difference. That combined with the seriously stupid-sh*t things he's said and done publicly over the past year and a half do not make Trump seem smart at all. What the man is is lucky. Period.
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