Liberal SUNY professor who predicted last 5 POTUS elections say Trump has 87% chance of winning

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

"Predicted last 5"? Only two of which were close?

My what a genius. Get back to me when he's predicted 50.

I don't blame you for being scared....

Scared of what? The Democrats are already ahead in early voting which is a pretty clear indicator Hillary is going to win.

 

[NYcarbineer]

It appears to me this model doesn't account for anything after the primary. So, for example it seems to think Trump could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Ave. and still get elected.

Is there more to this model? Seems overly simplified.

"Winning the early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November."

This is how this works:

Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says

A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.

The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 213 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry.


Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | CU Boulder Today | University of Colorado Boulder

We Re discussing something different however...but you can't understand that....because math escapes you....

lol, dumbest answer of the day.

We're not discussing predictive models? Models that are supposedly almost foolproof?

Not that model....start your own ******* thread.....

Now that your dumb thread has been proven to be horseshit, grab a shovel.

Strange...with all your liberal propaganda you can't derail math.....funny, no?

Resist the liberals propaganda.....Obama has even stopped campaigning for hitlery.....


SUNY Prof With Reliable Election Model Predicts 87% Chance of Trump Win

If you're confident in this 87% chance then give me 8 to 1 odds on Hillary for $100.

That's my 100 vs your 800.

 

[HappyJoy]

Owebo says 'math' a lot but I don't see him applying it himself.

 

[longknife]

Electoral model: Trump has at least an 87% chance of winning

In other words, totally ignore the polls. Actions speak louder than words. ('ll bet certain posters will go totally nuts over this. They'll trot out their electoral college charts and predictions and tout the “scientific reliability” of polls.)

Here’s what Norpoth wrote a few days ago at the Hill:

To start with something basic, opinion polls are really about “opinions,” not actions. At their best, they can tell us how people feel about political issues and personalities. Do voters, for instance, like or dislike candidates such as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump?

Yet having an opinion and acting on it are two different things. Barely 6 in 10 voting-age American citizens turn out for presidential elections. Ascertaining the opinions of 100 citizens is just a start. Now you have to determine which 60 of them actually take the time to mark a ballot. They are the “likely voters.” They are the only ones that count. But to find them is no easy chore.

It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty. So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I’ll vote, and then many will not follow through. Miscalculations of which respondents will turn out to vote can easily screw up a poll prediction, so would it be sure thing if we just dealt with actual voters?

Saw His Mightiness Jeraldo on Fox&Friends this morning saying something like: If Trump wins, it'll be the biggest upset in political history.” Oh how I'can't wait to see his face the morning of November 9.

More w/links @ You can't trust polls: Clinton leads, but our polling methods are bunk

 

[Preacher]

"Predicted last 5"? Only two of which were close?

My what a genius. Get back to me when he's predicted 50.

I don't blame you for being scared....

Scared of what? The Democrats are already ahead in early voting which is a pretty clear indicator Hillary is going to win.

Assuming they are voting for Clinton. You do realize over 100k democrats switched to republican in Pa. In some states you don't have to switch. They just ask what ballot you want and again that's not in every state....some are voting for Stein I bet and Trump and Johnson.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Of course they do. Based on your posting, history, they're not expecting it from you.

Progressives can't even do simple math… LOL

Over half the annual deficit is now interest on the debt.

Can't you see the country is dying, the numbers don't lie. There is no way any of this can be recovered from. Fact

Sure we can. Reinstate PAYGO.

We tried many decades of career politicians, it's failed. LOL

PAYGO worked for ten years.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Figure out the odds of any past candidate winning the presidency from being 6 points down in the poll average 2 weeks out.

THAT is a reliable indicator.

 

[owebo]

Figure out the odds of any past candidate winning the presidency from being 6 points down in the poll average 2 weeks out.

THAT is a reliable indicator.

This isn't about polls however side the polls methodologies are unreliable.,,,

 

[NYcarbineer]

Figure out the odds of any past candidate winning the presidency from being 6 points down in the poll average 2 weeks out.

THAT is a reliable indicator.

This isn't about polls however side the polls methodologies are unreliable.,,,

It's about the polls because the guy in your OP said the polls were bunk. HE made it about the polls. Don't you even read your own links?

 

[LadyGunSlinger]

Resist the liberals propaganda.....Obama has even stopped campaigning for hitlery.....


SUNY Prof With Reliable Election Model Predicts 87% Chance of Trump Win

The Criminal Syndicate of Establishment swine are using PSYOPS and being aided by their Media Propaganda whores.. No one can ever believe a word these assholes say after the Wikileaks.. they are CORRUPT LYING CRIMINALS, pure dog shit and don't deserve any consideration what so ever. The Founders shot enemies of freedom.. We need to recognize these gutter rats are our enemy.

 

[owebo]

Resist the liberals propaganda.....Obama has even stopped campaigning for hitlery.....


SUNY Prof With Reliable Election Model Predicts 87% Chance of Trump Win

The Criminal Syndicate of Establishment swine are using PSYOPS and being aided by their Media Propaganda whores.. No one can ever believe a word these assholes say after the Wikileaks.. they are CORRUPT LYING CRIMINALS, pure dog shit and don't deserve any consideration what so ever. The Founders shot enemies of freedom.. We need to recognize these gutter rats are our enemy.

People are rejecting the MSM and democrats are panicking....

 

[Old Rocks]

Damn, 9Nov16 is going to be so much fun. In fact, given the polls, by 4pm, West Coast, it will probably be all over. Going to be a lot of quoting from the braggadocio of the 'Conservatives' on this board. LOL As much fun as 2012.

 

[owebo]

Damn, 9Nov16 is going to be so much fun. In fact, given the polls, by 4pm, West Coast, it will probably be all over. Going to be a lot of quoting from the braggadocio of the 'Conservatives' on this board. LOL As much fun as 2012.

Democrats will blame Bush.....