Kissinger says Ukraine should cede territory for peace with Russia

[AlexanderPK]

It's a no-brainer. The least Ukraine will have to cede is the Donbass and a land corridor to the Crimea. The positive side is that they won't be landlocked having retained Odessa and they will have solidified a pro-Western state giving them the opportunity to join the EU and NATO.

It may well be a new "Iron Curtain".

What EU and NATO? The only thing Ukrainian that might be left is Lviv and adjacent western-ukrainian shitholes like Ivano-Frankivsk. Forget about Odessa. It'll become Russian again, like it always were.

 

[ESay]

Russia's "resurgence" caught both Ukraine and the US unawares. We can only guess at the US's reasons, but it may be that on at least some level Biden's admin (and imo he's actually directly setting policy here) decided it was not in anyone's interest to have Ukraine really defeat Russia. We may have thought the howitzers were enough "to keep them in the game," but apparently that was not the case.

The strategy of the West is quite confusing. From the one side, they spend a great amount of money and send weapons; but from another one, the decisions take a long time to be approved and some crucial weapons haven't been delivered. Maybe you are right, it may well be it is not in anyone's interest to actually defeat Russia.

But then the logical question arises. What is the reason for Ukraine to keep fighting and lose its people? To stay forever in a gray zone?

 

[para bellum]

It seems that yes. Not sure what 'peace' will mean in this case. Russia seems to step on a new stage of the Cold War with the West.

There is a lot of materiel in the pipeline. It just takes time. The first of the M777's arrived May 8. IIRC as of the 22nd of May, 12 operational 155mm howitzers had fired 1876 rounds. 4 of those 12 are capable of firing GPS guided munitions. I think they wanted to get them to the front as quickly as possible, and it was faster to go "old school" at first.

The ones moving forward now appear be M777A2 which have the digital fuse setting capability to fire the GPS guided munitions. There are also several thousand M982 Excalibur rounds going to Ukraine which are deadly accurate.

The training of crews continues and there are a lot of heavy weapons still to move east.

Also it sounds like the decision is made to provide the M270 and HIMARS launchers and GMRLS missiles, expecting to hear details next week. ATACMS not likely. GMRLS will give a 70km reach to UA artillery and hit within 3m.

Denmark's announcement to provide Harpoon can be an ice-breaker. Take away the fear of being the first country to provide AShM's to Ukraine. Norway and the UK have both talked about sending NSM- would be much faster to get in service and is a more modern system with the same role.

It's WW1 trench warfare right now. Putin is using the L/DNR conscripts to the clear trenches because no one in Russia will care if Ukrainians are killing Ukrainians.

Also looks like the push from Popasna has petered out.

Reports that a Ukrainian MiG-29 downed a SU-35S over Kherson. Might be that some of those "spare parts" have been reassembled...

 

[bendog]

The strategy of the West is quite confusing. From the one side, they spend a great amount of money and send weapons; but from another one, the decisions take a long time to be approved and some crucial weapons haven't been delivered. Maybe you are right, it may well be it is not in anyone's interest to actually defeat Russia.

But then the logical question arises. What is the reason for Ukraine to keep fighting and lose its people? To stay forever in a gray zone?

I think its certain that the West's "strategy" is confusing and actually inconsistent, which really sucks for Ukranians. We gave them very little besides shoulder fired missiles, then old soviet tanks and artillery and air defense, then drones and even "a little" US artillery. Germany promised Poland modern tanks, and the US is still talking about speeding up modern US tanks to Poland. I suspect that when it leaked out that we gave Ukraine satellite information on the Moskova, it scared the shit outta the US navy.

Biden's playing this without any map. It's not been done before. He personally read the intelligence a year ago and predicted Putin's move, and he pulled Nato into this. So, I'm not criticizing. I don't think we've seen this in a long time. Our history of screwups from W onwards is pretty ... awful.

The one thing Biden does not want to give Ukraine is any ability to actually invade Russia. That could end human life on the planet.

And it's impossible to deny that Russia has a historical interest in Crimea separate and apart from anything having to do with Ukraine. My guess is that there aren't many Ukrainian citizens in donbas that want anything to do with Russia, after seeing what it's troops have done. The war crimes are really unprecedented since WWII. It's like the Serbs in Kosovo and Bosnia on Russian Olympics Steroids. And Bosnia is .... geographically and ethnically its simply not a country.

But, imo, Russians have a weird psyche. (so do Americans to say the least, lol) But they really do see themselves as unique and sort of protectorate of sorts. This despite really not being a first world econ. Finland and Sweden would smoke their asses in a conventional war. But I don't think Russian's are much different now than what Dostoevsky described. And I admit I've never stopped thinking of them as "the enemy." But they have more nukes than anybody.

 

[BackAgain]

By his latest words about the Putzin horrors, he is kind of an accomplice after the fact. **** Henry Kissinger.

 

[ESay]

There is a lot of materiel in the pipeline. It just takes time. The first of the M777's arrived May 8. IIRC as of the 22nd of May, 12 operational 155mm howitzers had fired 1876 rounds. 4 of those 12 are capable of firing GPS guided munitions. I think they wanted to get them to the front as quickly as possible, and it was faster to go "old school" at first.

The ones moving forward now appear be M777A2 which have the digital fuse setting capability to fire the GPS guided munitions. There are also several thousand M982 Excalibur rounds going to Ukraine which are deadly accurate.

The training of crews continues and there are a lot of heavy weapons still to move east.

Also it sounds like the decision is made to provide the M270 and HIMARS launchers and GMRLS missiles, expecting to hear details next week. ATACMS not likely. GMRLS will give a 70km reach to UA artillery and hit within 3m.

Denmark's announcement to provide Harpoon can be an ice-breaker. Take away the fear of being the first country to provide AShM's to Ukraine. Norway and the UK have both talked about sending NSM- would be much faster to get in service and is a more modern system with the same role.

It's WW1 trench warfare right now. Putin is using the L/DNR conscripts to the clear trenches because no one in Russia will care if Ukrainians are killing Ukrainians.

Also looks like the push from Popasna has petered out.

Reports that a Ukrainian MiG-29 downed a SU-35S over Kherson. Might be that some of those "spare parts" have been reassembled...

We will see. That is not a trench war, basically. Because a trench war implies the front line to remain still. But the Russians are making gains in the Donbas. Not big, but step by step, steadily. I have seen a report today that Ukrainian command may decide to remove the troops from Severodonetsk to evade encirclement. And I expect that the announcement will come soon.

Except of that, as I said above, there is the other side of a coin. Except of a military solution, there should also be a political one. The talks about security guarantees are stalled; NATO as a political body is divided about future relations with Ukraine; European countries are backtracking from their claims about Ukraine's 'Euro-integration' perspectives.

And quite naturally, a question arises. What is Ukraine fighting for? For the right to stay in a grey zone?

 

[ESay]

I think its certain that the West's "strategy" is confusing and actually inconsistent, which really sucks for Ukranians. We gave them very little besides shoulder fired missiles, then old soviet tanks and artillery and air defense, then drones and even "a little" US artillery. Germany promised Poland modern tanks, and the US is still talking about speeding up modern US tanks to Poland. I suspect that when it leaked out that we gave Ukraine satellite information on the Moskova, it scared the shit outta the US navy.

Biden's playing this without any map. It's not been done before. He personally read the intelligence a year ago and predicted Putin's move, and he pulled Nato into this. So, I'm not criticizing. I don't think we've seen this in a long time. Our history of screwups from W onwards is pretty ... awful.

The one thing Biden does not want to give Ukraine is any ability to actually invade Russia. That could end human life on the planet.

And it's impossible to deny that Russia has a historical interest in Crimea separate and apart from anything having to do with Ukraine. My guess is that there aren't many Ukrainian citizens in donbas that want anything to do with Russia, after seeing what it's troops have done. The war crimes are really unprecedented since WWII. It's like the Serbs in Kosovo and Bosnia on Russian Olympics Steroids. And Bosnia is .... geographically and ethnically its simply not a country.

But, imo, Russians have a weird psyche. (so do Americans to say the least, lol) But they really do see themselves as unique and sort of protectorate of sorts. This despite really not being a first world econ. Finland and Sweden would smoke their asses in a conventional war. But I don't think Russian's are much different now than what Dostoevsky described. And I admit I've never stopped thinking of them as "the enemy." But they have more nukes than anybody.

Ukraine was never going to invade Russia. And if the US was afraid to 'end human life on the planet', then it should have had better backtrack. I am not for a nuclear war. But bowing to Putin's threats is enabling him to do what he wants. The Russians understand only force. That won't change anytime soon.

 

[bendog]

We will see. That is not a trench war, basically. Because a trench war implies the front line to remain still. But the Russians are making gains in the Donbas. Not big, but step by step, steadily. I have seen a report today that Ukrainian command may decide to remove the troops from Severodonetsk to evade encirclement. And I expect that the announcement will come soon.

Except of that, as I said above, there is the other side of a coin. Except of a military solution, there should also be a political one. The talks about security guarantees are stalled; NATO as a political body is divided about future relations with Ukraine; European countries are backtracking from their claims about Ukraine's 'Euro-integration' perspectives.

And quite naturally, a question arises. What is Ukraine fighting for? For the right to stay in a grey zone?

Well I hope Ukraine is fighting for a status similar to Austria's during the cold war. But I agree that Nato is an unreliable partner for Ukraine. The US and UK navies would have no objection to keeping sea lanes open in intl waters. I suppose a lot hinges upon how much technology the US will transfer to allow them to inflict casualties on an invading force.

As I posted earlier, I just don't see on a map that simply cutting off all of Luhansk and Donetsk and and the coastline of Zaporizhia leaves a viable Ukraine.

Ukraine's future economy is the key, and the EU is right that they are decades away. Their culture is not Russian, but it's not western either.

 

[bendog]

Ukraine was never going to invade Russia. And if the US was afraid to 'end human life on the planet', then it should have had better backtrack. I am not for a nuclear war. But bowing to Putin's threats is enabling him to do what he wants. The Russians understand only force. That won't change anytime soon.

oh I agree that reasoning with Russians is a fool's errand. And with or without Putin, Russia will back up if faced with sufficient force, but they'll just bide their time for a new opportunity.

Ukraine will have to defend its own borders, and hopefully they will be borders that will allow Ukraine to be a nation. Ukraine is not alone. Poland the Baltics see the same threat.

 

[para bellum]

We will see. That is not a trench war, basically. Because a trench war implies the front line to remain still. But the Russians are making gains in the Donbas. Not big, but step by step, steadily. I have seen a report today that Ukrainian command may decide to remove the troops from Severodonetsk to evade encirclement. And I expect that the announcement will come soon.

They are literally lobbing grenades at each other from 20 feet away. I don't want to post the videos. The Ukrainians are dug in all along the line of contact. In some places for 8 years now.

Artillery barrages and creep forward, reposition and do it again. WW1 in the 21st century. Only they have drones.

There is nothing strategic about Severodonetsk, taking it doesn't mean the Donbas is lost. If Ukraine makes Russia fight for it, it will be Mariupol all over again. I can't predict what they will do, or how soon the Russian offensive will collapse.

Except of that, as I said above, there is the other side of a coin. Except of a military solution, there should also be a political one. The talks about security guarantees are stalled; NATO as a political body is divided about future relations with Ukraine; European countries are backtracking from their claims about Ukraine's 'Euro-integration' perspectives.

I don't see anything to make me think anyone is interested in a political solution to the war atm.

I agree with you that the pace has been slow to get Ukraine the weapons they need, I'm only saying that transitioning Ukrainian forces to NATO standard weapons can only be done so fast. The MANPADS and ATGM's could get in the fight quickly, interoperability isn't an issue with a disposable weapon.

The M777's were available because we converted two brigades over to HIMARS. HIMARS are not available in large supply, but there were quite a few tracked M270's built so at least some of the weapons Ukraine is asking for can be made available.

Getting the EU or NATO to agree on anything is a tall order.

And quite naturally, a question arises. What is Ukraine fighting for? For the right to stay in a grey zone?

The right to determine their own future? Whether they choose to look to the EU or Russia, it should be their choice.

Putin wants to chop Ukraine in half and take the east, and leave the western part dependent on Russia for everything. That shouldn't even be a subject of debate.

 

[ESay]

oh I agree that reasoning with Russians is a fool's errand. And with or without Putin, Russia will back up if faced with sufficient force, but they'll just bide their time for a new opportunity.

Ukraine will have to defend its own borders, and hopefully they will be borders that will allow Ukraine to be a nation. Ukraine is not alone. Poland the Baltics see the same threat.

Yeah, Ukraine without the sea, without the heavy industry in the East will rely heavily on Western donations. Ukraine hasn't been an example of economic prosperity, to put it mildly, and now the perspectives aren't too bright.

Yes, Poland and the Baltics fear Russia, and also they fear that the article 5 won't mean more than the British guarantees to Poland before WWII.

 

[ESay]

They are literally lobbing grenades at each other from 20 feet away. I don't want to post the videos. The Ukrainians are dug in all along the line of contact. In some places for 8 years now.

Artillery barrages and creep forward, reposition and do it again. WW1 in the 21st century. Only they have drones.

There is nothing strategic about Severodonetsk, taking it doesn't mean the Donbas is lost. If Ukraine makes Russia fight for it, it will be Mariupol all over again. I can't predict what they will do, or how soon the Russian offensive will collapse.

I don't see anything to make me think anyone is interested in a political solution to the war atm.

I agree with you that the pace has been slow to get Ukraine the weapons they need, I'm only saying that transitioning Ukrainian forces to NATO standard weapons can only be done so fast. The MANPADS and ATGM's could get in the fight quickly, interoperability isn't an issue with a disposable weapon.

The M777's were available because we converted two brigades over to HIMARS. HIMARS are not available in large supply, but there were quite a few tracked M270's built so at least some of the weapons Ukraine is asking for can be made available.

Getting the EU or NATO to agree on anything is a tall order.

The right to determine their own future? Whether they choose to look to the EU or Russia, it should be their choice.

Putin wants to chop Ukraine in half and take the east, and leave the western part dependent on Russia for everything. That shouldn't even be a subject of debate.

Well, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk are the biggest cities which were under the Ukr government control after the Minsk agreements. When these cities are taken by Russia then all Luhansk oblast will be under their control.

We will see. Who knows, maybe MLRS will be really a game-changer as some hope. The time will show.

 

[bendog]

I just don't see it in the US interest to allow Russia to dictat e a peace to Ukraine that leaves them in the situation with a Ukraine a vassal state. We in the US have sold out every ally who took us at our word since Korea. So it's not a question of honor. But allowing Putin anything more of victory than a cheap face saving that he can sell Russians as "we denazified donbas" would mean we not only empowered Ukraine to be destroyed but also cost our own economy, and Nato's, and ended any hope for Biden's presidency.

But I also don't see Biden's idea of how this turns out.

Most say the import sanctions stay on Russia. So my guess is Ukraine has more staying power than Russia if this turns into a years long shelling of the crimea land bridge.

 

[ESay]

Also it sounds like the decision is made to provide the M270 and HIMARS launchers and GMRLS missiles, expecting to hear details next week. ATACMS not likely. GMRLS will give a 70km reach to UA artillery and hit within 3m

Well, it seems that Biden sucks.

 

[para bellum]

Well, it seems that Biden sucks.

I've always known that. Whatever you do, don't ever bet on Biden leading anyone to anything.

I'm not taking his statement to say there will be no MRLS. I never expected him to offer ATACMS, but it better be at least M30/M31 class, or he's doing nothing.

 

[ESay]

I've always known that. Whatever you do, don't ever bet on Biden leading anyone to anything.

I'm not taking his statement to say there will be no MRLS. I never expected him to offer ATACMS, but it better be at least M30/M31 class, or he's doing nothing.

Yes, I also read an opinion that it was about long range systems. There will be deliveries of 'short' systems.

Anyway, it is somewhat sucks when Russia shells Kharkiv from its territory and demands not to deliver systems that can reach these firing points, and someone bows down to these demands.

Either you go along the road and stop bowing to Russian nuclear threats or just leave this road.

 

[Toro]

Kissinger is the epitome of all those who think America should stand down and be a loser

No wonder Putin and his whores are whoring for him

LOL