Jolly Wins! ObamaCare Loses!

[PoliticalChic]

On the presidential level, yes. But a completely different clientele tends to come out for mid-terms versus prez elections, and yet an even different clientele tends to come out for specials before primary season, which was the case last night. mid-terms and specials are generally called "base" elections. Well, in CD-13, the GOP base is considerably larger than the DEM base, and indies tend to vote a lot less in mid-terms and specials.

We have seen this phenomenon over and over again, and it explains why a president's party can get pummeled in the mid-terms (see: Eisenhower 1954, Reagan 1982, Clinton 1994 and Obama 2010) and yet, go on to be re-elected in the next prez election.

In 2011, the DEMS won the majority of the Wisconsin state senate recall elections (but not enought to retake the state Senate) and at that time, I warned my Democratic friends that Walker was likely to remain in office in the case of a statewide recall election against him. Why? Because a different clientele shows up for those little specials as opposed to a big statewide election.

For this reason, it makes no sense to compare presidential election results per CD (results which, btw, are gathered up by crowdsourcing) to congressional results. You can even see the difference within the same election. Almost never does the same amount of voters cast votes for a Representative in any given CD as they do for president, even in the same cycle.

The comparsion can be fun or entertaining, but it is of no statistical predictive value at all.

Which is why I stood by my mid-JANUARY prediction that the GOP was likely to retain this seat.

Hope that information helps.

Do your numbers include the Obamacare effect?....there is a reason Obama keeps postponing mandates

Do you think Obama is postponing the mandates for the American people or for his own popularity, or somewhere in between?

Let me address the question, the idea that Obama functions out of a love for the American people.

Well....sort of.

Obama is a 'true believer' of Left-wing ideology.
He really believes that government is god...or he is....and no matter what happens to the people in the short run.....in the long run he is creating Utopia.


His love of his people is akin to the love leaders of the Soviet Union had for their people....including the tens of millions that they slaughtered.



"Horrors developed within that society [the USSR] , one of the greatest of which was the mass killing in the 30s of millions of its leading farmers.

Even during those horrors, the excitement of the theory continued to appeal to the pride, and in some ways the arrogance, of many in Western intellectual leadership who rationalized by saying that you cannot make an omelet without breaking eggs.

They forgot the eternal truth that man's nature is unchangeable and that good cannot come from evil."
https://www.hillsdale.edu/news/imprimis/archive/issue.asp?year=1978&month=09



And there were lots of folks who lapped that up.

Like you.

 

[kaz]

Thanks for all the cherry picked propaganda, Pub dupe, but the CBO's predictions don't respect ANY savings or effects that haven't happened yet...and ALL your Pub info is bs propaganda...

The dems moved any mandates around elections because of the power of your greedy idiot lying billionaire heroes. They and you are a disgrace...

So you believe your greedy idiot lying billionaires over theirs? Why exactly?

 

[Statistikhengst]

Attention Democrats! Pay no attention to this vote. I think one of you pointed out this is a solid GOP district anyway. Therefore I believe you should publicly embrace Obamacare and make it integral to your campaign message. Also, consider inviting obama to campaign for you in your District.

Good advice, for polling shows that a MINORITY of the US public is against Obamacare because they think it goes to far. A good chunk of the electorate is against it because they think it does not go far enough, so sure, I think it's a good idea.

Thanks for the suggestion.

 

[mamooth]

Democrats outspent Jolly 4 to 1 and lost in that race.

Who spoonfed you such nonsense? Spending was the same on both sides at around $6.4 million.

Outside groups help boost David Jolly to victory | Center for Public Integrity

We encourage the delusional to think this was about ObamaCare, and commit electoral suicide by pursuing that delusion. Back in the real world, it was about poor Democratic turnout during an off-year special election. Republicans strongholds turned out, Democratic strongholds did not. Any intelligent person will conclude the moral is "It's the turnout, stupid".

 

[blackhawk]

Oh yeah the Obamacare sign up numbers for February were below expectations as well.

I'm sure the White House will describe that as that sign ups have been consistent...

Wouldn't be surprised at first they claimed 7million signed up would qualify as success then it was 5 million who knows what the number for success will be by the end of the month.

 

[kaz]

Oh yeah the Obamacare sign up numbers for February were below expectations as well.

I'm sure the White House will describe that as that sign ups have been consistent...

Wouldn't be surprised at first they claimed 7million signed up would qualify as success then it was 5 million who knows what the number for success will be by the end of the month.

And virtually none of them are the ones who are supposedly going to overpay for insurance to make the numbers work. No one does on their own what liberals want them to, including liberals.

 

[AvgGuyIA]

Shit, the People might even vote out some of these democrat congressmen-for-life in Congressional Black Caucus districts. Thanks to ObozoCare.

 

[AvgGuyIA]

Obama hung on and won the district both times, but as far as the congressional ballot goes, it's a heavily Republican district.

It's Katherine Harris' old district, which she won twice by 10 points.

The Republicans took it by 37 points in 2010.

In 2012, the Republicans took it by 15 points.

This evening they held on and took it by 2 points.

With Obama winning it twice and congressional Democrats edging closer and closer there, it's showing a nation-wide pattern that Republicans are getting old and dying while Democrats are expanding their base, despite the loss this evening.

. Causing the democrats to spend 4 times what the GOP does and we'll bankrupt the party like Reagan did to the Soviets.

 

[peach174]

Dem's always go into the red during elections.
They don't care about the money or debt, they just want to win no mater what.

 

[kaz]

Dem's always go into the red during elections.
They don't care about the money or debt, they just want to win no mater what.

True. I just wish it wasn't working so well...

 

[thereisnospoon]

The turnout wasn't that great either. How long before the democrats say the election was illegal?

Tomorrow. An army of lawyers will arrive at a courthouse near you with armfuls of motions and lawsuits.

 

[AvgGuyIA]

1. The governor's race in Virginia was a referendum on Obamacare, remember? Democrats won.

2. This race was a referendum on Obamacare, the Republican won. That would make it a 1 to 1 tie on Obamacare referendums, if you believe a South Florida house race is as important as a gubernatorial race in a major state like Virginia.

3. Jolly ran against Obamacare, but he ran against it mainly on the old Obamacare canard that the law was going to take Medicare away from seniors...

...Republicans scaring seniors by demagoguing about Medicare cuts. Sound familiar? It's what conservatives used to delight in accusing Democrats of.

4. Obamacare will never be repealed, even if the GOP gets a Senate majority and the Presidency in 2016.

. Jolly didn't run against Obamacare. He said so himself.

 

[francoHFW]

Thanks for all the cherry picked propaganda, Pub dupe, but the CBO's predictions don't respect ANY savings or effects that haven't happened yet...and ALL your Pub info is bs propaganda...

The dems moved any mandates around elections because of the power of your greedy idiot lying billionaire heroes. They and you are a disgrace...

So you believe your greedy idiot lying billionaires over theirs? Why exactly?

Ours want to pay MORE taxes, since they're not greedy lying stupid polluting cheating a-holes and know voodoo Reaganism is wrecking the nonrich and the country. See sig para. 1.

 

[NYcarbineer]

1. The governor's race in Virginia was a referendum on Obamacare, remember? Democrats won.

2. This race was a referendum on Obamacare, the Republican won. That would make it a 1 to 1 tie on Obamacare referendums, if you believe a South Florida house race is as important as a gubernatorial race in a major state like Virginia.

3. Jolly ran against Obamacare, but he ran against it mainly on the old Obamacare canard that the law was going to take Medicare away from seniors...

...Republicans scaring seniors by demagoguing about Medicare cuts. Sound familiar? It's what conservatives used to delight in accusing Democrats of.

4. Obamacare will never be repealed, even if the GOP gets a Senate majority and the Presidency in 2016.

. Jolly didn't run against Obamacare. He said so himself.

So the author of this thread is what? Full of beans? Clueless? A liar?

 

[francoHFW]

The truth about O-care is slowly getting out, no thanks to the LSM. Not in time for this...

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Moral of the story: jolly republicans win, miserable democrats lose

Sent from my Chinese Supercomputer made from XBox parts Bush sent to China

 

[NYcarbineer]

1. The governor's race in Virginia was a referendum on Obamacare, remember? Democrats won.

2. This race was a referendum on Obamacare, the Republican won. That would make it a 1 to 1 tie on Obamacare referendums, if you believe a South Florida house race is as important as a gubernatorial race in a major state like Virginia.

3. Jolly ran against Obamacare, but he ran against it mainly on the old Obamacare canard that the law was going to take Medicare away from seniors...

...Republicans scaring seniors by demagoguing about Medicare cuts. Sound familiar? It's what conservatives used to delight in accusing Democrats of.

4. Obamacare will never be repealed, even if the GOP gets a Senate majority and the Presidency in 2016.

. Jolly didn't run against Obamacare. He said so himself.

So he had this on his campaign website, why?

Obamacare has hurt Pinellas families and businesses, driving up premium prices for many, leading to cancelled policies for many, and burdening small businesses with additional costs that ultimately deter future hiring and reduce jobs in our community. It should be repealed now...

 

[PoliticalChic]

Thanks for all the cherry picked propaganda, Pub dupe, but the CBO's predictions don't respect ANY savings or effects that haven't happened yet...and ALL your Pub info is bs propaganda...

The dems moved any mandates around elections because of the power of your greedy idiot lying billionaire heroes. They and you are a disgrace...

So you believe your greedy idiot lying billionaires over theirs? Why exactly?

Ours want to pay MORE taxes, since they're not greedy lying stupid polluting cheating a-holes and know voodoo Reaganism is wrecking the nonrich and the country. See sig para. 1.

"....voodoo Reaganism is wrecking the nonrich and the country."

You're so stupid I bet you think academia is a type of nut.




Lesson for today: Reagan increased the wealth of the nation.

1. Under Reagan, the debt went up $1.7 trillion, from $900 billion to $2.6 trillion.
2. But….the national wealth went up $ 17 trillion
3. Reagan's near-trillion-dollar bulge in defense spending transformed the global balance of power in favor of capitalism. Spurring a stock-market, energy, venture-capital, real-estate and employment boom, the Reagan tax-rate cuts and other pro-enterprise policies added some $17 trillion to America's private-sector assets, dwarfing the trillion-dollar rise in public-sector deficits and creating 45 million net new jobs at rising wages and salaries.

George Gilder: The Real Reagan Lesson for Romney-Ryan - WSJ.com

Reaganomics - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



4. Obama: the very opposite-
"... the real (inflation-adjusted) median annual household income in America has fallen by 4.4 percent during the "recovery," after having fallen by 1.8 during the recession."
Incomes Have Dropped Twice as Much During the 'Recovery' as During the Recession | The Weekly Standard



How ya' like them apples, boyyyyeeeeee???

 

[kaz]

Thanks for all the cherry picked propaganda, Pub dupe, but the CBO's predictions don't respect ANY savings or effects that haven't happened yet...and ALL your Pub info is bs propaganda...

The dems moved any mandates around elections because of the power of your greedy idiot lying billionaire heroes. They and you are a disgrace...

So you believe your greedy idiot lying billionaires over theirs? Why exactly?

Ours want to pay MORE taxes, since they're not greedy lying stupid polluting cheating a-holes and know voodoo Reaganism is wrecking the nonrich and the country. See sig para. 1.

So why don't they pay them then?

 

[NYcarbineer]

Your answer is here....see if you're clever enough to recognize same:

According to the CBO, in 2015 there will be 36 million uninsured nonelderly Americans. http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43472-07-24-2012-CoverageEstimates.pdf (table 3)

Thirty-six million you say? That sure is a lot.

Off the Charts Blog | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities | Shannon Spillane

So....where did you get that colorful graph....Bazooka Comics?


I must be some sort of bug-light for high school drop-outs!

OK, OK.....tutorial to follow:


1. The CBO tables that I've provided indicate 36 million uninsured nonelderly Americans who will remain uninsured after ObamaCare kicks in (this was before the supposed king postponed various parts of same).

Now....view that again....more carefully this time.

Note that it does not mention how many will be covered.

Is that too nuanced a difference for you to absorb?


2. Your silly little graph screams "...Will Cut Number of Uninsured Drastically."

Clearly it is the kind of pap designed to warm the cockles of the heart of Obamunist simpletons.

Nor does it speak to the point I've documented via the CBO stats.



3. Now, speaking of the source of your silly little graph....the CBPP is a Ford Foundation group, i.e., left wing....with an agenda.

a. For example:
"A chart created by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) has been circulating among liberal bloggers such as Ezra Klein, James Fallows, and Andrew Sullivan."
Liberal Think Tank Fails Statistics | The Foundry: Conservative Policy News from The Heritage Foundation



You may return to the All-Cartoon Network now.

And stop putting your thumb in your mouth.

You accuse him of posting from a biased source and then you quote the Heritage Foundation?

lol, in all fairness to you there might be at most 3 conservatives on this board not stupid enough to do that.