Italy's high death rate is explained away by their high median age, yet Germany has a higher median age and an unusually low death rate.

[RandomPoster]

Italy's fatality rate is about 5.86 times that of Germany's. What other than median age can be used to explain it?

	Cases	Deaths	Median Age
Germany	119,624	2,607	47.1
Italy	147,577	18,849	45.5

 

[Cassandro]

OK, so what's your theory?

 

[Olde Europe]

Table 1: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020.

Germany .. 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%]
Italy .......... 9.8% [3.2%-26%]​

Italy has 14 times Germany's infection rate, tests only the worst cases, many of whom die.

Germany tests widely, finds many mild cases (to curtail community transmission), few of whom die.

 

[Cecilie1200]

Italy's fatality rate is about 5.86 times that of Germany's. What other than median age can be used to explain it?

	Cases	Deaths	Median Age
Germany	119,624	2,607	47.1
Italy	147,577	18,849	45.5

I think you're not looking at population data correctly for this. 23% of Italy's population is over the age of 65; only Japan has a larger percentage of people over 65, at 28%. Germany's population is 21% over the age of 65.

But you are correct that there are other factors involved. Apparently, one big reason that Germany has such a low death rate is that it is testing something like 120,000 people a week, which means they're identifying a lot more mild cases with few or no symptoms. That changes the equation a lot. It's kinda like saying a higher percentage of people in hospitals die. It's true, but that's also because people are in the hospital BECAUSE they're seriously ill to start with. If you only factor in people who are in danger of dying, then the percentage of them that actually die is going to be higher than if you average in people who aren't even feeling sick.

 

[RandomPoster]

Table 1: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020.​

​

Germany .. 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%]​

Italy .......... 9.8% [3.2%-26%]​

Italy has 14 times Germany's infection rate, tests only the worst cases, many of whom die.

Germany tests widely, finds many mild cases (to curtail community transmission), few of whom die.

Italy and Germany have done almost the same number of tests per capita to date. Italy has about twice the positives per capita and almost 10 times the deaths per capita. Germany's recoveries per capita is already about equal to Italy's and trending upwards faster.

	Tests Per Million People	Positives Per Million	Deaths Per Million	Recoveries Per Million
Germany	15,850	1,214	32	504
Italy	15,035	2,447	313	505

 

[RandomPoster]

Italy's fatality rate is about 5.86 times that of Germany's. What other than median age can be used to explain it?

	Cases	Deaths	Median Age
Germany	119,624	2,607	47.1
Italy	147,577	18,849	45.5

I think you're not looking at population data correctly for this. 23% of Italy's population is over the age of 65; only Japan has a larger percentage of people over 65, at 28%. Germany's population is 21% over the age of 65.

But you are correct that there are other factors involved. Apparently, one big reason that Germany has such a low death rate is that it is testing something like 120,000 people a week, which means they're identifying a lot more mild cases with few or no symptoms. That changes the equation a lot. It's kinda like saying a higher percentage of people in hospitals die. It's true, but that's also because people are in the hospital BECAUSE they're seriously ill to start with. If you only factor in people who are in danger of dying, then the percentage of them that actually die is going to be higher than if you average in people who aren't even feeling sick.

Germany's percentage over 65 is 21.5%, as opposed to 23% for Italy.

	Median Age	% over 65
Germany	46.1 (3rd in world)	21.5 (3rd in world)
Italy	45.5 (5th in world)	23 (2nd in world)

Germany has a slightly higher media age than Italy has a slightly higher percentage of population over 65. Overall, their age profile is pretty comparable in my opinion.

 

[Likkmee]

More on Germany. Spectator is a decent site not many know about.I'll say center/right ABOUT says "more cocktail party than political party"
COVID antibody test in German town shows 15 percent infection rate | Spectator USA

 

[BluesLegend]

Almost 24% of Italy's citizens are over the age of 65 with many living into their 90's even 100's. I'm not sure looking at the median age is how to compare this. Italians are also highly communal living in multi-generation homes and socializing in large groups.

 

[Olde Europe]

Table 1: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020.​

​

Germany .. 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%]​

Italy .......... 9.8% [3.2%-26%]​

Italy has 14 times Germany's infection rate, tests only the worst cases, many of whom die.

Germany tests widely, finds many mild cases (to curtail community transmission), few of whom die.

Italy and Germany have done almost the same number of tests per capita to date. Italy has about twice the positives per capita and almost 10 times the deaths per capita. Germany's recoveries per capita is already about equal to Italy's and trending upwards faster.

	Tests Per Million People	Positives Per Million	Deaths Per Million	Recoveries Per Million
Germany	15,850	1,214	32	504
Italy	15,035	2,447	313	505

Is it really so hard to figure out why that is irrelevant? Let's make it simple:

Country A has 100 infected, tests the worst 50.

Country B has 1.400 infected, also tests the worst 50.

The "confirmed cases" are about the same. 50. Which country will have the higher death rate?

 

[Wyatt earp]

Table 1: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020.​

​

Germany .. 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%]​

Italy .......... 9.8% [3.2%-26%]​

Italy has 14 times Germany's infection rate, tests only the worst cases, many of whom die.

Germany tests widely, finds many mild cases (to curtail community transmission), few of whom die.

Italy and Germany have done almost the same number of tests per capita to date. Italy has about twice the positives per capita and almost 10 times the deaths per capita. Germany's recoveries per capita is already about equal to Italy's and trending upwards faster.

	Tests Per Million People	Positives Per Million	Deaths Per Million	Recoveries Per Million
Germany	15,850	1,214	32	504
Italy	15,035	2,447	313	505

Is it really so hard to figure out why that is irrelevant? Let's make it simple:

Country A has 100 infected, tests the worst 50.

Country B has 1.400 infected, also tests the worst 50.

The "confirmed cases" are about the same. 50. Which country will have the higher death rate?

Gene pool? High immunity?

The blacks in Africa migrated north to colder weather?

 

[Andylusion]

Italy's fatality rate is about 5.86 times that of Germany's. What other than median age can be used to explain it?

	Cases	Deaths	Median Age
Germany	119,624	2,607	47.1
Italy	147,577	18,849	45.5

Yeah, none of that made any sense. All the explanations that do not include "heavily socialized health care system", are hard to buy.

They said that Italy has bad air quality.... then why are other nations with worse air quality, having lower death rates?
They said it was higher median age.... then why is Japan with a much higher median age, having lower death rates?

Every attempt to explain this, falls extremely short.

 

[RandomPoster]

Table 1: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020.​

​

Germany .. 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%]​

Italy .......... 9.8% [3.2%-26%]​

Italy has 14 times Germany's infection rate, tests only the worst cases, many of whom die.

Germany tests widely, finds many mild cases (to curtail community transmission), few of whom die.

Italy and Germany have done almost the same number of tests per capita to date. Italy has about twice the positives per capita and almost 10 times the deaths per capita. Germany's recoveries per capita is already about equal to Italy's and trending upwards faster.

	Tests Per Million People	Positives Per Million	Deaths Per Million	Recoveries Per Million
Germany	15,850	1,214	32	504
Italy	15,035	2,447	313	505

Is it really so hard to figure out why that is irrelevant? Let's make it simple:

Country A has 100 infected, tests the worst 50.

Country B has 1.400 infected, also tests the worst 50.

The "confirmed cases" are about the same. 50. Which country will have the higher death rate?

Table 1: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020.​

​

Germany .. 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%]​

Italy .......... 9.8% [3.2%-26%]​

Italy has 14 times Germany's infection rate, tests only the worst cases, many of whom die.

Germany tests widely, finds many mild cases (to curtail community transmission), few of whom die.

Italy and Germany have done almost the same number of tests per capita to date. Italy has about twice the positives per capita and almost 10 times the deaths per capita. Germany's recoveries per capita is already about equal to Italy's and trending upwards faster.

	Tests Per Million People	Positives Per Million	Deaths Per Million	Recoveries Per Million
Germany	15,850	1,214	32	504
Italy	15,035	2,447	313	505

Is it really so hard to figure out why that is irrelevant? Let's make it simple:

Country A has 100 infected, tests the worst 50.

Country B has 1.400 infected, also tests the worst 50.

The "confirmed cases" are about the same. 50. Which country will have the higher death rate?

Germany has conducted more tests, except they have more people. Germany and Italy have actually tested about the same number of people per capita. In other words, Italy's testing is as thorough as Germany's.

If Italy and Germany have conducted about the same number of tests per capita and Italy only has twice the positive results per capita, how do they have 14 times the infection rate? They do not, they have twice the infection rate.

None of which has anything to do with the fact that Germany has considerably more recovered patients and fewer deaths.

 

[Olde Europe]

Germany has conducted more tests, except they have more people. Germany and Italy have actually tested about the same number of people per capita. In other words, Italy's testing is as thorough as Germany's.

If Italy and Germany have conducted about the same number of tests per capita and Italy only has twice the positive results per capita, how do they have 14 times the infection rate? They do not, they have twice the infection rate.

None of which has anything to do with the fact that Germany has considerably more recovered patients and fewer deaths.

So, you fail to understand the argument, but you know better than the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London. All the while, the higher infection rate explains the higher death count, but you still can't make any sense of what you are seeing. But still, you just know better.

Pitiful.

 

[Siete]

Italy's fatality rate is about 5.86 times that of Germany's. What other than median age can be used to explain it?

	Cases	Deaths	Median Age
Germany	119,624	2,607	47.1
Italy	147,577	18,849	45.5

Germans must have set pandemic protocols and enforced them - unlike Italy

AND THE USA

see ya in church sunday

 

[Cecilie1200]

Almost 24% of Italy's citizens are over the age of 65 with many living into their 90's even 100's. I'm not sure looking at the median age is how to compare this. Italians are also highly communal living in multi-generation homes and socializing in large groups.

I understand their population has a really high percentage of smokers as well.