SwimExpert
Gold Member
- Nov 26, 2013
- 16,247
- 1,679
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- Banned
- #1
The 6th year election during a Presidency will pretty much always go in favor of the non-Presidential party. This is a well worn and understood fact of politics. So we know that the GOP were bound to come out favorably compared to the Democrats. That it happened doesn't really say anything favorable about the GOP's relationship with the American people, nor anything damning about the Dem's in that sense.
We also know that midterm elections typically have higher turnout for the GOP base voters. This year was no different. Again, that it happened says nothing in favor of the GOP, nor damning for the Dems. Though understanding this should underscore the above even more.
What is perhaps more interesting is that even with a higher GOP voter turnout, and GOP gains in the House, Senate, and Governorships, all the results prime results seem to be nothing more than political science fodder. They're either textbook examples of the same old cycles, or they're discombobulated expressions of disconnected uncertainty.
Let's look at Illinois as an example. The Governorship flipped red, with Rauner carrying nearly every district across the state. But the Senate race went to the Democrat. Eight out of 18 Congressional districts were won by the GOP. More interestingly, ten districts elected Democrats for Congress, yet most still supported the GOP gubernatorial candidate. Illinois other statewide elections are equally hodge-podge. Illinois' AG and Secy. of State went Dem, while the Comptroller's race when GOP, and the Treasurer's race is leaning GOP (though it's still too close to call). All in all, there's alot of multi-directional voting going on, and at the end of the day neither party can claim any substantive victory. While the GOP gains in the state's congressional caucus might seem like substantial signals against the backdrop of Illinois' heavily gerrymandered districting, it becomes instantly impossible to maintain such a view in light of ballot measures that supported a raise in minimum wage and constitutional amendments to mandate birth control coverage in all health care plans, and increasing taxes on millionaires.
Another example is the state of Maryland, where the Governorship also flipped red, yet the rest of the state's results demonstrate similar patterns. Republican Larry Hogan won the Governorship in a state that almost never elects Republican governors. Ever. Hogan carried almost every district in the state, including Democratic stronghold Baltimore County. Yet once again, several of these same districts picked Democratic Representatives to Congress, while other state offices were split.
The message is clear: The only special message to be had is that voters are less engaged than ever, and their voting behavior has more to do with predictable patterns than it does enthusiasm for the Republican brand. As Republicans, we need to be careful to avoid seeing this as a mandate, and instead see it as an opportunity to build upon first steps. There is a great deal of work to be done.
We also know that midterm elections typically have higher turnout for the GOP base voters. This year was no different. Again, that it happened says nothing in favor of the GOP, nor damning for the Dems. Though understanding this should underscore the above even more.
What is perhaps more interesting is that even with a higher GOP voter turnout, and GOP gains in the House, Senate, and Governorships, all the results prime results seem to be nothing more than political science fodder. They're either textbook examples of the same old cycles, or they're discombobulated expressions of disconnected uncertainty.
Let's look at Illinois as an example. The Governorship flipped red, with Rauner carrying nearly every district across the state. But the Senate race went to the Democrat. Eight out of 18 Congressional districts were won by the GOP. More interestingly, ten districts elected Democrats for Congress, yet most still supported the GOP gubernatorial candidate. Illinois other statewide elections are equally hodge-podge. Illinois' AG and Secy. of State went Dem, while the Comptroller's race when GOP, and the Treasurer's race is leaning GOP (though it's still too close to call). All in all, there's alot of multi-directional voting going on, and at the end of the day neither party can claim any substantive victory. While the GOP gains in the state's congressional caucus might seem like substantial signals against the backdrop of Illinois' heavily gerrymandered districting, it becomes instantly impossible to maintain such a view in light of ballot measures that supported a raise in minimum wage and constitutional amendments to mandate birth control coverage in all health care plans, and increasing taxes on millionaires.
Another example is the state of Maryland, where the Governorship also flipped red, yet the rest of the state's results demonstrate similar patterns. Republican Larry Hogan won the Governorship in a state that almost never elects Republican governors. Ever. Hogan carried almost every district in the state, including Democratic stronghold Baltimore County. Yet once again, several of these same districts picked Democratic Representatives to Congress, while other state offices were split.
The message is clear: The only special message to be had is that voters are less engaged than ever, and their voting behavior has more to do with predictable patterns than it does enthusiasm for the Republican brand. As Republicans, we need to be careful to avoid seeing this as a mandate, and instead see it as an opportunity to build upon first steps. There is a great deal of work to be done.