Is USA to loose its global dominance to China?

[Relay]

In a program i heard that China will passing USAs GDP ín only 5 years time. And already now it looks like China dictates the world market more and more. USA seem to decline under its heavy burden of Afghanistan and Iraq. Maybe USA have made a huge blunder and left the field wide open for the Chineese to take over completely.
WHat do americans in general think about this shift in world dominance?

 

[trobinett]

In a program i heard that China will passing USAs GDP ín only 5 years time. And already now it looks like China dictates the world market more and more. USA seem to decline under its heavy burden of Afghanistan and Iraq. Maybe USA have made a huge blunder and left the field wide open for the Chineese to take over completely.
WHat do americans in general think about this shift in world dominance?

Interesting question Relay, but no worries mate.

The world market is a fickle thing, one day your down, the next up. A lot of factors play into that.

Whats interesting though, who actually OWNS the companies that are world leaders in manufacturing?

Who actually is PROFITTING from the switch in GNP from the USA to China?

And really, most important, where would YOU prefer to live?

I'm not suggesting that you wouldn't prefer some other country, or that profit isn't being made by other countries, but these all play an important part, and yesterdays methods of figuring world dominance, isn't practical for todays international market place.

 

[90K]

I would much rather live in the US but if we didn't out source our labor to China and India our prices would be sky high. Our air and water would be completely un-healthy and we couldn't be a factor in world markets because who could afford our goods?

 

[theHawk]

In a program i heard that China will passing USAs GDP ín only 5 years time. And already now it looks like China dictates the world market more and more. USA seem to decline under its heavy burden of Afghanistan and Iraq. Maybe USA have made a huge blunder and left the field wide open for the Chineese to take over completely.
WHat do americans in general think about this shift in world dominance?

I don't see how Iraq or Afghanistan have anything to do with China's growth and our GDP numbers. China is getting more economically powerful because they have over 1 billion people and the vast majority of them work at a fraction of the cost versus the U.S. (or any other Western countries). Their economy is built on the exportation of cheap goods, and because of that, they are heavily dependant on the countries that buy those goods. I don't see how being so dependant on others makes them more powerful, and I don't know what you mean by saying the Chinese could "take over completely".

 

[90K]

I don't know what you mean by saying the Chinese could "take over completely".

Well other than global markets weakening and the amount of US currency the Chinese government holds or owns that could be a serious factor. That would be intersting because they could tilt the market by dumping all the currency they have. It wouldn't be in their best interest but it could happen.

 

[trobinett]

Here's the deal, as I see it.

Unless the United States does something REALLY stupid, like abandon Iraq, hide under our beds, turn the clock back a hundred years, we'll be fine.

World economy's are all interrelated, and right now, and in the foreseeable future, WE control the world economy, the dollar is king.

Believe me when I tell you, its in EVERYBODIES best interest to keep the "status qua".

China is looking good, no doubt, so is India, and many other far East nations, and I'm glad for them.

It's NO different than when Japan , and Germany started to flex their muscles, it only HELPED our economy.

Let's worry about serious shit, like securing our boarders, defeating terror, and selling New Orleans to Mexico.

 

[90K]

Yes good point in your last sentence about home issues. Actually they are all equally important it just depends who is doing the job of leading our nation.

 

[dilloduck]

Here's the deal, as I see it.

Unless the United States does something REALLY stupid, like abandon Iraq, hide under our beds, turn the clock back a hundred years, we'll be fine.

World economy's are all interrelated, and right now, and in the foreseeable future, WE control the world economy, the dollar is king.

Believe me when I tell you, its in EVERYBODIES best interest to keep the "status qua".

China is looking good, no doubt, so is India, and many other far East nations, and I'm glad for them.

It's NO different than when Japan , and Germany started to flex their muscles, it only HELPED our economy.

Let's worry about serious shit, like securing our boarders, defeating terror, and selling New Orleans to Mexico.

WE control the world economy, the dollar is king.

I love the "we" thing.

 

[trobinett]

I love the "we" thing.

Really?

I thought about that, but went ahead and used it.

Kinda "empowered" me................

 

[dilloduck]

Really?

I thought about that, but went ahead and used it.

Kinda "empowered" me................

Reckon I can withdraw a few hundred K from the treasury ?

 

[trobinett]

Reckon I can withdraw a few hundred K from the treasury ?

I'll take all the credit, and NONE of the blame.

Withdraw to your hearts desire.

 

[jillian]

I don't see how Iraq or Afghanistan have anything to do with China's growth and our GDP numbers.

You don't think China holding our debt has empowered it and increased its GDP? The reason we're running up so much debt is Iraq. So there ya go.

China is getting more economically powerful because they have over 1 billion people and the vast majority of them work at a fraction of the cost versus the U.S. (or any other Western countries). Their economy is built on the exportation of cheap goods, and because of that, they are heavily dependant on the countries that buy those goods. I don't see how being so dependant on others makes them more powerful, and I don't know what you mean by saying the Chinese could "take over completely".

Ummmmm... every country wants to export more than it imports. Foreign trade deficit is one of the things that drags down GDP. It's not dependence on others for the seller nation. It's reliance on cheap goods by the purchaser nations (you know, us....).

 

[trobinett]

You don't think China holding our debt has empowered it and increased its GDP? The reason we're running up so much debt is Iraq. So there ya go.

To your first question, yes.

As to running up "so much debt", I'm not sure I can agree with you on that.

Ummmmm... every country wants to export more than it imports. Foreign trade deficit is one of the things that drags down GDP. It's not dependence on others for the seller nation. It's reliance on cheap goods by the purchaser nations (you know, us....).

Jillian, I think you've got this one wrong.

Foreign trade deficit DOESN'T drag down the 'GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT", the GNP IS NOT dependant on imports.

But, YES, countries would, as a general rule, like to export MORE than they import, but that isn't a hard, and fast rule. The currency exchange has something to do with it, as well as "ownership" of trading partners.

Moving money, or "worth" from one pocket to the other, does NOT make a deficit, it makes a TRANSFER.

People a lot smarter than me will need to take it from there, but rest assured, China, India, and the other emerging third world nations have a ways to go, before they even approach the United States in GNP, or before the "deficit" in trade becomes a concern.

 

[glockmail]

In a program i heard that China will passing USAs GDP ín only 5 years time. And already now it looks like China dictates the world market more and more. USA seem to decline under its heavy burden of Afghanistan and Iraq. Maybe USA have made a huge blunder and left the field wide open for the Chineese to take over completely.
WHat do americans in general think about this shift in world dominance?

There seems to be a premise here that what is good for China is somehow bad for the US, where it is quite obvious that a healthy economy in China is good for everybody.

There also appears to be a premise that the GDP of China somehow decreases the GDP of the US. Is there some sort of limit on total worldwide GDP that you are not telling us about?

 

[eots]

I think china has a arsenal of nuclear weapons pointed right at you
purchased with your money

 

[theHawk]

Ummmmm... every country wants to export more than it imports. Foreign trade deficit is one of the things that drags down GDP. It's not dependence on others for the seller nation. It's reliance on cheap goods by the purchaser nations (you know, us....).

Well, let me clarify. Yes they make alot of money and get more powerful in a sense, but they are also vulnerable as well. If we wised up and put tarriffs and trade restrictions on the cheap goods China exports to the U.S. it would hurt them alot more than it would hurt us. While that would hurt alot of U.S. companies that use cheap China goods, it would reward companies what use goods made in the USA or other countries that actually practice things like minimum wage and health benefits---something you Dims claim to care about.

 

[glockmail]

Well, let me clarify. Yes they make alot of money and get more powerful in a sense, but they are also vulnerable as well. If we wised up and put tarriffs and trade restrictions on the cheap goods China exports to the U.S. it would hurt them alot more than it would hurt us. While that would hurt alot of U.S. companies that use cheap China goods, it would reward companies what use goods made in the USA or other countries that actually practice things like minimum wage and health benefits---something you Dims claim to care about.

Correct. Its a buyer's market, and we have them by the short hairs much more than they do ours.

 

[MGB]

I would like to recommend to the assembled multifude a book by Zbigniew Brzezinski entitled: The Choice - Global Domination or Global Leadership. In it, the author carefully and thoughtfully examines the likely changes on the world stage in the next 10 - 20 years. He looks at EVERY region of the world, but gives especial emphasis to China. Fascinating reading. More than worth your time.

 

[Annie]

Ran across this interesting article:

http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8515811

The problem with Made in China
Jan 11th 2007 | SINGAPORE
From The Economist print edition

China is choking on its success at attracting the world's factories. That has handed its Asian neighbours a big opportunity

AS A vote of confidence in Vietnam, the decision by Intel early in 2006 to spend $350m building a new factory in the emerging South-East Asian economy was hard to beat. And yet, before the year was out, the American chipmaker went further and raised its investment to $1 billion. In eight months Intel had committed as much money to Vietnam as it had to China in the previous ten years.

In the Johor region of Malaysia, another global firm, Flextronics, has fired up the production lines of a new M$400m ($110m) factory to make computer printers for another American firm, Hewlett-Packard. One of the largest contract electronics manufacturers, Flextronics already has vast facilities in China. But it chose Malaysia as the site for its latest investment.

Further east, in Indonesia, Yue Yuen, a Hong Kong-based shoemaker, has been ramping up its output of trainers and casual footwear for brands like Nike and Adidas. Production is increasing at the firm's factories in China and Vietnam too, but output in Indonesia is growing the fastest.

Although all three companies had different reasons for their decisions, the outcome was the same: they chose to avoid China's thundering economy in order to put their factories elsewhere in Asia. These companies are not alone. In the calculus of costs, risks, customers and logistics that goes into building global operations, an increasing number of firms are coming to the conclusion that China is not necessarily the best place to make things.

With its seemingly limitless supply of cheap labour and the rapid acquisition of technological prowess, China appears to be unstoppable. Indeed, the perception is that every factory closing in America or Europe is destined to reopen in China. Many have, helping China's share of the world's exported goods to triple to 7.3% between 1993 and 2005. In comparison, every member of the G8 group of rich nations, with the exception of Russia, saw its share fall. It is a similar story with manufacturing output. Whereas China doubled its share of global production to almost 7% in the decade to 2003, most of the G8 saw their shares fall. Interestingly, only the United States and Canada saw their shares rise—with just over a quarter between them. Most things nowadays might seem to be made in China, but North America remains the true workshop of the world.

Yet it is not only China that is booming as a base for low-cost production. Manufacturing and exports are growing rapidly in other parts of Asia (see chart 1). Taken together, South Korea, Taiwan, India and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) increased their share of global manufacturing from less than 7% to more than 9% in the decade to 2003. Exports also rose across the board. China is the emerging giant, but the investments that are being diverted away from the Middle Kingdom present the rest of Asia with a huge opportunity to become manufacturing hubs in their own right. The question is whether they can seize it...

 

[8236]

In a program i heard that China will passing USAs GDP ín only 5 years time.

No chance! China's GDP is approaching that of Germany's. In order to pass USA's it would have to at least quadruple from that. Even for China that would be physically impossible in the space of 5 years.