Your understanding of the stock market far exceeds my own.
I've had my doubts about its "free market" aspects since the Flash Crash, at least.
Can you speculate on how a market free of rentier influence like the one Smith envisioned would function without stock market bubbles?
What investment alternatives currently exist for retirement funds?
Well, you might not want to read too much into it.
I wouldn't put too much stock in advice from an internet forum. I'm pretty sure that there isn't anyone here sitting on their yacht, off the coast of Cancun, reading and posting on internet forums. It's one thing to make a personal decision to buy or sell, based on some short term change. It's another thing to be giving advice. Last I heard, Jim Cramer's track record is less then 50:50.
If you have the cash, you can open up an account with one of the online trading companies then pull most of it back out again. Last I saw, once you have the account, there is no minimum. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
I have been fortunate to have been able to learn some tools that I can validate some things with. And it's way easier to prove that something isn't true then it is to predict the future. There is one person here that knows enough to ask me what the p-value and t-stat is. And he is right, without a p-value and the t-stat, it doesn't mean that much.
I just found that volatility before and after the debt ceiling crisis rather interesting. I have no idea if it can be used for anything beyond "interesting".
The standard advise is that, over the long run, the market performs well enough if your in a risk adverse mutual fund. 25% of the change in the market is somehow connected to the GDP. (That's an interesting question; is that 25% the result of the long run trend?)
And there is a reason that people buy government bonds, even though they make less then anything else.
The second best advise that I have heard is to go with fundamental analysis, get to know the company and the market. That seems to be what Warren Buffet does. And it makes sense.
Better to talk to the person who handles your companies 401K plan. They pretty much say the same thing, over the long term, risk adverse mutual funds are the safest. At least that way, when it tanks, your not worse of then every one else. You really haven't "lost" what you never had in the first place.
"Buy low and sell high." That's the rule, and it seems so obviously simple as to be stupid. But if you think about it, anyone that loses money didn't follow it. Nobody loses money that follows it. The corollary would be, never sell low. I figure, if I'm not in it for the long run, maybe I shouldn't be in it.
Seems like the smartest people bought in the beginning of 2008, when everyone else was selling low.