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# Is Coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested? Two Stanford medical professors suggest that current mortality estimates are way too high.

#### Seawytch

This is what I've been saying all along, and the TDS morons have been trying to ignore. Their claims that the Wuhan flu is more deadly than the Swine flu is based on psuedo-science. It's based on figures that are clearly biased.

Is coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?

Coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there and he’ll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.

Media reports have told us that coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that’s small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Spanish Influenza), it’s a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to America from turn into a viral slaughterhouse.

But that might not be what's happening.

At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that coronavirus’s mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.

According to the doctors, “The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.” When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died), we’re using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.

The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus.

The real statistic that no one has calculated yet is the ratio of ACTUAL Chinese Kung Flu cases to the number of confirmed ones. My guess is that its probably a large number as this CV bug doesn't really create much symptoms in most of the infected people.
That's the point the article is making. We don't know how many people have actually caught the bug. All we know is how many cases the CDC is porting, which is based on tests of people who already show the symptoms. That's a small fraction of the people who actually get the bug.
An entire city in Italy and the country of Iceland are testing 100% of their citizens. 50% of those with the virus are asymptomatic. STAY. THE. FUCK. HOME!!!!!
Iceland reports 802 confirmed cases and 2 deaths. That works out to a death rate of 0.24%.

You shot down your own post, moron.
Why are you so dedicated to minimizing this very serious disease? What's in it for you? You have no loved ones over 60?

OP

#### bripat9643

##### Diamond Member
Breaking News! BriPat doesn't think enough people are dying! Go away Russian troll!
Not breaking new
This is what I've been saying all along, and the TDS morons have been trying to ignore. Their claims that the Wuhan flu is more deadly than the Swine flu is based on psuedo-science. It's based on figures that are clearly biased.

Is coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?

Coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there and he’ll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.

Media reports have told us that coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that’s small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Spanish Influenza), it’s a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to America from turn into a viral slaughterhouse.

But that might not be what's happening.

At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that coronavirus’s mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.

According to the doctors, “The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.” When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died), we’re using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.

The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus.
Have you volunteered at you local Emergency Center yet? Someone as unconcerned about the virus as you are should be on the front lines fighting it.
So you aren't concerned about the virus?
I'm very concerned. You aren't. You should volunteer to help fight the virus on the "front lines". I am following recommended guidelines and staying home or only going to my workplace or grocery store.
Since you're the one who is concerned, you should be the one who volunteers. That's your "logic," not mine.
Your logic, like your politics, are flawed. I am afraid of catching this virus so I am staying home as directed by my governor. You are not at all concerned so you should expose yourself as much as possible...without a mask to boot.
It's your logic, dumbass. You said I should volunteer because I was so concerned. Then you said you are the one who is concerned. According to your logic, you should be volunteering, not me. I think this hysteria is pure horseshit. I'm only concerned about the hysteria.

You can't help stepping on your own dick, can you?

OP

#### bripat9643

##### Diamond Member
This is what I've been saying all along, and the TDS morons have been trying to ignore. Their claims that the Wuhan flu is more deadly than the Swine flu is based on psuedo-science. It's based on figures that are clearly biased.

Is coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?

Coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there and he’ll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.

Media reports have told us that coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that’s small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Spanish Influenza), it’s a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to America from turn into a viral slaughterhouse.

But that might not be what's happening.

At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that coronavirus’s mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.

According to the doctors, “The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.” When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died), we’re using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.

The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus.

The real statistic that no one has calculated yet is the ratio of ACTUAL Chinese Kung Flu cases to the number of confirmed ones. My guess is that its probably a large number as this CV bug doesn't really create much symptoms in most of the infected people.
That's the point the article is making. We don't know how many people have actually caught the bug. All we know is how many cases the CDC is porting, which is based on tests of people who already show the symptoms. That's a small fraction of the people who actually get the bug.
An entire city in Italy and the country of Iceland are testing 100% of their citizens. 50% of those with the virus are asymptomatic. STAY. THE. FUCK. HOME!!!!!
Iceland reports 802 confirmed cases and 2 deaths. That works out to a death rate of 0.24%.

You shot down your own post, moron.
Why are you so dedicated to minimizing this very serious disease? What's in it for you? You have no loved ones over 60?
1. I'm interested in facts, not hysterical bullshit.
2. This hysterical bullshit is crashing the economy. People are panicking over nothing, and idiots like you are driving it.
Everything you and your TDS moron friends post is bullshit intended to drive up the hysteria.

#### Seawytch

This is what I've been saying all along, and the TDS morons have been trying to ignore. Their claims that the Wuhan flu is more deadly than the Swine flu is based on psuedo-science. It's based on figures that are clearly biased.

Is coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?

Coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there and he’ll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.

Media reports have told us that coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that’s small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Spanish Influenza), it’s a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to America from turn into a viral slaughterhouse.

But that might not be what's happening.

At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that coronavirus’s mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.

According to the doctors, “The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.” When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died), we’re using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.

The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus.

The real statistic that no one has calculated yet is the ratio of ACTUAL Chinese Kung Flu cases to the number of confirmed ones. My guess is that its probably a large number as this CV bug doesn't really create much symptoms in most of the infected people.
That's the point the article is making. We don't know how many people have actually caught the bug. All we know is how many cases the CDC is porting, which is based on tests of people who already show the symptoms. That's a small fraction of the people who actually get the bug.
An entire city in Italy and the country of Iceland are testing 100% of their citizens. 50% of those with the virus are asymptomatic. STAY. THE. FUCK. HOME!!!!!
Iceland reports 802 confirmed cases and 2 deaths. That works out to a death rate of 0.24%.

You shot down your own post, moron.
Why are you so dedicated to minimizing this very serious disease? What's in it for you? You have no loved ones over 60?
1. I'm interested in facts, not hysterical bullshit.
2. This hysterical bullshit is crashing the economy. People are panicking over nothing, and idiots like you are driving it.
Everything you and your TDS moron friends post is bullshit intended to drive up the hysteria.
With its mortality rate and rate of infection, people are not "panicking over nothing". They are panicking over a real thing that is overwhelming our nation's hospitals. Now get out there, trooper. Go expose yourself to this "nothing".

##### Platinum Member
Gold Supporting Member
This is what I've been saying all along, and the TDS morons have been trying to ignore. Their claims that the Wuhan flu is more deadly than the Swine flu is based on psuedo-science. It's based on figures that are clearly biased.

Is coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?

Coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there and he’ll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.

Media reports have told us that coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that’s small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Spanish Influenza), it’s a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to America from turn into a viral slaughterhouse.

But that might not be what's happening.

At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that coronavirus’s mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.

According to the doctors, “The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.” When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died), we’re using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.

The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus.
Yes, your Trump Defense Syndrome is strong. Seriously, "icky"?? Just the sort of alt-right intelligence I've come to expect from these f'ing Internet cancers...err....websites. But you spin, spin, spin away. Hope you don't get motion sick.
Your boy finally fucked something up that he won't be able to campaign his way out of.

Now, if you want to read some fact based (in so far as the data gathered) here you go. Otherwise, I return you to your regularly schedule right wing apology tour for Donald Trump.
How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?
What did the article say that isn't a fact?

Here's a fact - Those suffering from TDS are all Trump hating morons.

Trump's popularity grows with every day of this crisis. The fake news media has certainly not showered itself in glory.
Page out of the same right wing playbook. An alt-right or right leaning site cherry picks a statement and presents it as proof they are right all in the hopes of propping up Trump's chance for re-election. Enjoy that popularity bounce. Revel in it. It's not going to last.
The article uses actual numbers posted in main stream media. It extrapolates from those numbers to get the actual number of cases, which is far higher than what the media is reporting. The left is relying on the inflated mortality figures to scare the public.

You just made it clear that you're hoping more Americans will die
It's a bullshit article from an alt-right site that has less than 0% of journalistic credibility.
I'm surprised you didn't throw the "you hate America" argument in there. Another page out of the right wing playbook.

#### mikegriffith1

##### Mike Griffith
Consider this: As of this morning, there have been 478,444 corona virus cases worldwide. If we assume that corona virus cases have been under-reported by a staggering 600%, that would give us just under 2.88 million cases in four months (we are at least four months into the COVID-19 outbreak). By comparison, the swine flu averaged 90 million cases per month, or 360 million cases every four months.

So how drastically would COVID-19 cases have to be under-reported to equal the swine flu's 360 million cases in four months? Try 7,528%. And how drastically would COVID-19 cases have to increase over the next 8 months to match the swine flu case number of 1.1 billion? 230,000%.

How about the number of deaths from the corona virus vs. the swine flu? If we take the median of the estimates for H1N1 deaths, we get around 350,000 deaths, or 29,000 deaths per month. As of this morning, there have been 21,524 COVID-19 deaths, which equals an average of 5,381 deaths per month, compared to the swine flu's 29,000 deaths per month. And remember we are taking the median (or middle) of the estimates for swine flu deaths, which ranged from 151,700 to 575,400.

What if COVID-19 deaths continue to increase at the rate we have seen over the last week? This is unlikely, since the COVID-19 death rate has already begun to decline in some nations and localities, even in places where some/all schools and universities have stayed open.

But, let's assume the recent death-rate increase continues. As of 19 March, one week ago, there had been 9,840 COVID-19 deaths. As mentioned, as of this morning there have been 21,524 COVID-19 deaths, an increase of 11,684 deaths in one week, or an increase of 1,669 deaths per day, which equals 50,070 deaths per month. If we make the improbable assumption that the number of corona virus deaths will continue to increase at this rate for the next 8 months--50,070 deaths per month for the next 8 months--that would amount to 400,560 additional deaths in 8 months, for a 12-month total of 422,084 deaths worldwide, whereas the 2009-2019 swine flu pandemic is estimated to have caused as many as 575,400 deaths in 12 months (April 2009 to April 2010).

If we assume that 8 months from now COVID-19 will have caused 422,084 deaths, what percentage would that be of the world's population? 0.00543%, or a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of 1% of the world's population.

#### Cecilie1200

##### Diamond Member
This is what I've been saying all along, and the TDS morons have been trying to ignore. Their claims that the Wuhan flu is more deadly than the Swine flu is based on psuedo-science. It's based on figures that are clearly biased.

Is coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?

Coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there and he’ll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.

Media reports have told us that coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that’s small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Spanish Influenza), it’s a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to America from turn into a viral slaughterhouse.

But that might not be what's happening.

At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that coronavirus’s mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.

According to the doctors, “The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.” When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died), we’re using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.

The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus.
That should be obvious to anyone who has taken high school algebra. Unfortunately, you apparently can't count very many leftists in that group. And they seem really hostile about having their catastrophe taken away from them.

#### Polishprince

##### Gold Member
This is what I've been saying all along, and the TDS morons have been trying to ignore. Their claims that the Wuhan flu is more deadly than the Swine flu is based on psuedo-science. It's based on figures that are clearly biased.

Is coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?

Coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there and he’ll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.

Media reports have told us that coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that’s small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Spanish Influenza), it’s a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to America from turn into a viral slaughterhouse.

But that might not be what's happening.

At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that coronavirus’s mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.

According to the doctors, “The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.” When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died), we’re using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.

The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus.

The real statistic that no one has calculated yet is the ratio of ACTUAL Chinese Kung Flu cases to the number of confirmed ones. My guess is that its probably a large number as this CV bug doesn't really create much symptoms in most of the infected people.
That's the point the article is making. We don't know how many people have actually caught the bug. All we know is how many cases the CDC is porting, which is based on tests of people who already show the symptoms. That's a small fraction of the people who actually get the bug.
An entire city in Italy and the country of Iceland are testing 100% of their citizens. 50% of those with the virus are asymptomatic. STAY. THE. FUCK. HOME!!!!!
Iceland reports 802 confirmed cases and 2 deaths. That works out to a death rate of 0.24%.

You shot down your own post, moron.
Why are you so dedicated to minimizing this very serious disease? What's in it for you? You have no loved ones over 60?
1. I'm interested in facts, not hysterical bullshit.
2. This hysterical bullshit is crashing the economy. People are panicking over nothing, and idiots like you are driving it.
Everything you and your TDS moron friends post is bullshit intended to drive up the hysteria.
With its mortality rate and rate of infection, people are not "panicking over nothing". They are panicking over a real thing that is overwhelming our nation's hospitals. Now get out there, trooper. Go expose yourself to this "nothing".

However, no one knows what the mortality rate is. Or even what the rate of infection is.

##### Diamond Member
This is what I've been saying all along, and the TDS morons have been trying to ignore. Their claims that the Wuhan flu is more deadly than the Swine flu is based on psuedo-science. It's based on figures that are clearly biased.

Is coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?

Coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there and he’ll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.

Media reports have told us that coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that’s small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Spanish Influenza), it’s a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to America from turn into a viral slaughterhouse.

But that might not be what's happening.

At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that coronavirus’s mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.

According to the doctors, “The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.” When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died), we’re using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.

The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus.
Yes, your Trump Defense Syndrome is strong. Seriously, "icky"?? Just the sort of alt-right intelligence I've come to expect from these f'ing Internet cancers...err....websites. But you spin, spin, spin away. Hope you don't get motion sick.
Your boy finally fucked something up that he won't be able to campaign his way out of.

Now, if you want to read some fact based (in so far as the data gathered) here you go. Otherwise, I return you to your regularly schedule right wing apology tour for Donald Trump.
How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?
Jack, I'm far from a Trump apologist, but those professors at Stanford are right. It doesn't mean go out and hug the grocery clerk; the reason for the social isolation is to prevent the medical sector from being overwhelmed and I believe it's all we've got to slow this down and hopefully save lives. Maybe some of us who would have caught it if things stayed "normal" will even be spared catching it at all.

But as far as the mortality rate? They're right. We haven't got the numbers we need to make that determination. Yet.

#### Cecilie1200

##### Diamond Member
This is what I've been saying all along, and the TDS morons have been trying to ignore. Their claims that the Wuhan flu is more deadly than the Swine flu is based on psuedo-science. It's based on figures that are clearly biased.

Is coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?

Coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there and he’ll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.

Media reports have told us that coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that’s small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Spanish Influenza), it’s a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to America from turn into a viral slaughterhouse.

But that might not be what's happening.

At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that coronavirus’s mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.

According to the doctors, “The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.” When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died), we’re using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.

The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus.
Yes, your Trump Defense Syndrome is strong. Seriously, "icky"?? Just the sort of alt-right intelligence I've come to expect from these f'ing Internet cancers...err....websites. But you spin, spin, spin away. Hope you don't get motion sick.
Your boy finally fucked something up that he won't be able to campaign his way out of.

Now, if you want to read some fact based (in so far as the data gathered) here you go. Otherwise, I return you to your regularly schedule right wing apology tour for Donald Trump.
How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?
"Alt right, alt right, alt right . . . and TRRRRRUUUUMMMPPP!!!"

Learn the difference between "spin" and math . . . although you might have to get someone who attended school to help you with that.

As for your "facts" which you assume are contradictory to what he said, did you not read your own article, or did you just not understand the big words?

"Despite the morbidity and mortality with influenza, there's a certainty … of seasonal flu," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a White House press conference on Jan. 31. "I can tell you all, guaranteed, that as we get into March and April, the flu cases are going to go down. You could predict pretty accurately what the range of the mortality is and the hospitalizations [will be]," Fauci said. "The issue now with [COVID-19] is that there's a lot of unknowns."

Scientists are racing to find out more about COVID-19, and our understanding of the virus that causes it and the threat it poses may change as new information becomes available.

And then, under the section for "death rate", all they give us are numbers for China, with no indication of how widespread the testing was, or even if we can believe what the hell the Chinese tell us. Do we see anything about any other places that might actually be more comparable to the US? (I don't know if you've noticed, but the US isn't very much like China in a number of ways.)

So no, you haven't proven anything here except that you really, REALLY want things to be horrible, so that you can dance around singing about how it's somehow all Trump's fault.

#### Cecilie1200

##### Diamond Member
This is what I've been saying all along, and the TDS morons have been trying to ignore. Their claims that the Wuhan flu is more deadly than the Swine flu is based on psuedo-science. It's based on figures that are clearly biased.

Is coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?

Coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there and he’ll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.

Media reports have told us that coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that’s small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Spanish Influenza), it’s a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to America from turn into a viral slaughterhouse.

But that might not be what's happening.

At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that coronavirus’s mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.

According to the doctors, “The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.” When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died), we’re using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.

The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus.

The real statistic that no one has calculated yet is the ratio of ACTUAL Chinese Kung Flu cases to the number of confirmed ones. My guess is that its probably a large number as this CV bug doesn't really create much symptoms in most of the infected people.
And how do we entirely trust the numbers coming out of China? Do we really believe that the same people who let this get out and infect the rest of the world while they tried to cover it up are now going to be totally honest with us?

#### Cecilie1200

##### Diamond Member
This is what I've been saying all along, and the TDS morons have been trying to ignore. Their claims that the Wuhan flu is more deadly than the Swine flu is based on psuedo-science. It's based on figures that are clearly biased.

Is coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?

Coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there and he’ll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.

Media reports have told us that coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that’s small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Spanish Influenza), it’s a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to America from turn into a viral slaughterhouse.

But that might not be what's happening.

At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that coronavirus’s mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.

According to the doctors, “The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.” When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died), we’re using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.

The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus.
Yes, your Trump Defense Syndrome is strong. Seriously, "icky"?? Just the sort of alt-right intelligence I've come to expect from these f'ing Internet cancers...err....websites. But you spin, spin, spin away. Hope you don't get motion sick.
Your boy finally fucked something up that he won't be able to campaign his way out of.

Now, if you want to read some fact based (in so far as the data gathered) here you go. Otherwise, I return you to your regularly schedule right wing apology tour for Donald Trump.
How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?
What did the article say that isn't a fact?

Here's a fact - Those suffering from TDS are all Trump hating morons.

Trump's popularity grows with every day of this crisis. The fake news media has certainly not showered itself in glory.
Page out of the same right wing playbook. An alt-right or right leaning site cherry picks a statement and presents it as proof they are right all in the hopes of propping up Trump's chance for re-election. Enjoy that popularity bounce. Revel in it. It's not going to last.
"Well, well, well . . . alt-right! Saying it means I win!"

Page out of the leftist playbook: choose a buzzword and scream it over and over in place of a real argument.

Enjoy hoping for millions of deaths because you were losing politically, scumbag.

#### Cecilie1200

##### Diamond Member
Breaking News! BriPat doesn't think enough people are dying! Go away Russian troll!
Breaking news! BriPat didn't say not enough people were dying; he said fewer people might, and you and your leftist butt-buddies threw a tantrum because it wasn't enough for you.

Go away, you political ghoul.

#### Cecilie1200

##### Diamond Member
This is what I've been saying all along, and the TDS morons have been trying to ignore. Their claims that the Wuhan flu is more deadly than the Swine flu is based on psuedo-science. It's based on figures that are clearly biased.

Is coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?

Coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there and he’ll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.

Media reports have told us that coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that’s small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Spanish Influenza), it’s a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to America from turn into a viral slaughterhouse.

But that might not be what's happening.

At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that coronavirus’s mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.

According to the doctors, “The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.” When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died), we’re using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.

The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus.
Have you volunteered at you local Emergency Center yet? Someone as unconcerned about the virus as you are should be on the front lines fighting it.
Typical leftist. "You can't disagree with me until you fulfill XYZ criteria I have set for you to be allowed to talk."

Fuck you.

#### Cecilie1200

##### Diamond Member
Breaking News! BriPat doesn't think enough people are dying! Go away Russian troll!
Not breaking new
This is what I've been saying all along, and the TDS morons have been trying to ignore. Their claims that the Wuhan flu is more deadly than the Swine flu is based on psuedo-science. It's based on figures that are clearly biased.

Is coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?

Coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there and he’ll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.

Media reports have told us that coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that’s small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Spanish Influenza), it’s a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to America from turn into a viral slaughterhouse.

But that might not be what's happening.

At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that coronavirus’s mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.

According to the doctors, “The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.” When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died), we’re using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.

The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus.
Have you volunteered at you local Emergency Center yet? Someone as unconcerned about the virus as you are should be on the front lines fighting it.
So you aren't concerned about the virus?
I'm very concerned. You aren't. You should volunteer to help fight the virus on the "front lines". I am following recommended guidelines and staying home or only going to my workplace or grocery store.
Tell us how concerned you are when your leaders aren't wasting time trying to use the virus to advance their political agenda, and you aren't making excuses for them doing it.

When I see your hypocritical ass demanding to know what funding for the arts and airplane emissions standards have to do with the coronavirus, we'll talk.

#### Death Angel

##### Platinum Member
This is what I've been saying all along, and the TDS morons have been trying to ignore. Their claims that the Wuhan flu is more deadly than the Swine flu is based on psuedo-science. It's based on figures that are clearly biased.

Is coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?

Coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there and he’ll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.

Media reports have told us that coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that’s small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Spanish Influenza), it’s a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to America from turn into a viral slaughterhouse.

But that might not be what's happening.

At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that coronavirus’s mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.

According to the doctors, “The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.” When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died), we’re using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.

The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus.
Yep. All of us without an agenda have been saying this for weeks. We are risking global collapse over leftist hysteria.

#### Pete7469

##### Gold Member
This is what I've been saying all along, and the TDS morons have been trying to ignore. Their claims that the Wuhan flu is more deadly than the Swine flu is based on psuedo-science. It's based on figures that are clearly biased.

Is coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?

Coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there and he’ll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.

Media reports have told us that coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that’s small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Spanish Influenza), it’s a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to America from turn into a viral slaughterhouse.

But that might not be what's happening.

At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that coronavirus’s mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.

According to the doctors, “The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.” When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died), we’re using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.

The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus.
Yes, your Trump Defense Syndrome is strong. Seriously, "icky"?? Just the sort of alt-right intelligence I've come to expect from these f'ing Internet cancers...err....websites. But you spin, spin, spin away. Hope you don't get motion sick.
Your boy finally fucked something up that he won't be able to campaign his way out of.

Now, if you want to read some fact based (in so far as the data gathered) here you go. Otherwise, I return you to your regularly schedule right wing apology tour for Donald Trump.
How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?
What did the article say that isn't a fact?

Here's a fact - Those suffering from TDS are all Trump hating morons.

Trump's popularity grows with every day of this crisis. The fake news media has certainly not showered itself in glory.
It was a bullshit crisis. They wanted to distract attention from Hong Kong.

#### ReinyDays

##### Silver Member
It was a bullshit crisis. They wanted to distract attention from Hong Kong.
Or perhaps how the Saudis have ramped up oil production ... crashed prices ... and now North American producers have to shut down ... oil is down to 1/3 the price it was just 10 weeks ago ...

#### Pete7469

##### Gold Member
It was a bullshit crisis. They wanted to distract attention from Hong Kong.
Or perhaps how the Saudis have ramped up oil production ... crashed prices ... and now North American producers have to shut down ... oil is down to 1/3 the price it was just 10 weeks ago ...
Exactly, there is shit happening behind the charade of the chinese cold that are far more important.

This "crisis" is an invented distraction.

.

#### basquebromance

##### Diamond Member
Getting coronavirus is not a death sentence except for maybe no more than 3 of our population...probably far less

We don’t shut down our economy because tens of thousands of people die on the highways, my friends

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