Iran warns closing strategic Hormuz oil route

[Ernie S.]

If everybody's so worried about the Strait of Hormuz:

Why don't all these rich oil producing countries get together and dig a canal across the UAE?

That would settle that!

A half dozen cruise missiles would give more bang for the buck.

 

[daveman]

That's just it, In the 80's that was Reagan who knew what to do. Obama will not do anything and let prices spike. He'll ignore Rebarich and head for the hills. No balls for this man. Please let me be wrong. Just send in the ships, Obama.

You need to ignore rhetoric.

Obama clearly has the "balls" (whatever that means) to use our Military. He upped our forces in Afghanistan like he said he would, and he's signed off on more drone attacks than ever before. He's authorized the killing of pirates on international waters, he's authorized Military force to get Bin Laden inside of a sovereign Country, and he's imposed as many sanctions on Iran as Bush has.

Where would you get the impression he tucks his tail and runs when IN ACTION and.........RHETORIC aside, he's shown just the opposite, is beyond logic. You're susceptible to anti Obama propoganda where it's undue.

Whichever direction Obama has gone militarily, policy-wise, the Right has bitched about it. Escalated the Afghan war, they bitched about it. Got us out of Iraq, they bitched about it. Aggressively went after al qaeda, including getting Bin Laden, they bitched about it. Limited our role in Libya, they bitched about it.

So, whatever he does re Iran, we already know what we'll hear from the bitches.

It would be nice if you could support the bolded statements.

 

[saveliberty]

Cookie cutter in downtown Tehran.

 

[zzzz]

If an embargo is enforced against Iranian oil, Iran would have no financial reasons to not attempt to close the straight. Over 80% of their income is generated by oil so punishing western nations for an embargo against their oil is a plausible action for the Iranians. The mere threat of a closure acts as a deterrent against an embargo for some countries.

There are 2 aspects this story. The first is the military aspect. The Iranian forces have enough military forces to cause substantial disruption in the strait. Oil tankers will not go through the strait until the shooting is finished which could take from 5 weeks to three months and then would have to be convoyed through. Mines might also be a problem.

U.S. Navy Commander Rodney Mills examined the military implications of an Iranian move to shut the strait in a 2008 study at the Naval War College. His bottom line:

There is consensus among the analysts that the U.S. military would ultimately prevail over Iranian forces if Iran sought to close the strait. The various scenarios and assumptions used in the analyses produce a range of potential timelines for this action, from the optimistic assessment that the straits would be open in a few days to the more pessimistic assessment that it would take five weeks to three months to restore the full flow of maritime traffic.

Can Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz? | Battleland | TIME.com

And that brings up the second aspect, the financial effect to the world economy. With the Euros on the brink of financial collapse and the US economy stuttering along a huge increase in oil prices would be cataclysmic on the global economy. Even a three month disruption would cause substantial harm.

So I do not see a oil embargo against the Iranians because of the cause and effect action this would create. The Iranians might be willing to sacrifice their military to cause global economic meltdown.

 

[saveliberty]

Guess we could blow up their oil transfer stations. The other Mideastern countries could just up production.