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Sep 15, 2004 6:05 pm US/Central
CHICAGO (CBS 2) The presidential election is just 48 days away now, and according to an exclusive new poll of Illinois voters, George W. Bush and John Kerry could be in a virtual dead heat.
The turn in this election tide could set up a political stunner. Illinois is a Democratic powerhouse in national elections, and John Kerry does maintain a small lead in our exclusive CBS 2 poll, but President Bush appears to be gaining support among voters.
Illinois no longer looks like a sure thing for Democrat John Kerry. His once 13 percentage point lead is now down to four points. That's exactly our survey's margin of accuracy, meaning the contest could be a dead-heat.
There are signs galore at a Republican office in New Trier Township. Workers say they're sensing a new enthusiasm for the Bush-Cheney ticket in an area with lots of swing voters -- swing voters who've chosen more and more Democrats in recent years. Some top Republicans still fear Bush could lose these voters, but others are expressing new confidence.
I'm convinced he's gonna win Illinois. I really believe that. And I know that's a frightful prospect for the Democrats, but just look at the numbers, said GOP Committeeman T. Tolbert Chisum.
The numbers in our exclusive CBS 2/Newsradio 780 poll put Kerry at 49 percent and Bush at 45 percent...
Kathianne said:Checking out site to see if they had rather react, of course not, but found this. Obama's lead just keeps growing. Now my guess, this is an attempt to gain their losing viewer base. Illinois can't be in play:
http://cbs2chicago.com/politics/local_story_259190721.html
Pour Me a Rather Stiff Drink
Posted by Stephen Green · 15 September 2004
I can't be drunk.
I had exactly two glasses of wine with a very big dinner, so there's no way I'm drunk. I'm not. I can't be. But how else to explain this:
NEW YORK - President Bush (news - web sites) got a convention bounce even in heavily Democratic New York but still trailed rival John Kerry (news - web sites), two statewide presidential polls said Wednesday.
The Quinnipiac University Polling Institute said Kerry led Bush 47 percent to 41 percent, with independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) at 4 percent. In a poll released Aug. 13, three weeks before Bush's speech at Republican National Convention, Kerry led by 20 percentage points, 53 percent to 35 percent, with Nader at 4 percent.
Or this:
CHICAGO (CBS 2) The presidential election is just 48 days away now, and according to an exclusive new poll of Illinois voters, George W. Bush and John Kerry could be in a virtual dead heat.
Or this:
The race is essentially tied. The poll found 49 of likely voters in Pennsylvania support Bush, 48 percent Kerry. With Ralph Nader in the contest he's currently off the ballot pending legal appeal it's 49 percent-46 percent-2 percent. (Among all registered voters, not just those likely to vote, it's 48 percent-48 percent, or 47 percent-47 percent-2 percent with Nader.)
Or this:
U.S. President George W. Bush is tied with Democratic challenger John Kerry in Minnesota, according to a Gallup poll conducted for Cable News Network and USA Today.
Or freakin' this:
SurveyUSA has Bush head of Kerry, 49 to 45.
In New Jersey.
Now I've seen too many elections to believe that these numbers will hold firm. They just won't. Kerry had a bad month, followed by a Rather bad week. Things just can't go on this way.
Which is to say, Kerry may very well come back -- whether in the debates, the situation in Iraq, the economy, whatever. Or he could seriously implode, and lose this election with a mere 185 Electoral College votes, and 45-46% of the popular vote.
Kerry can't stay where he is. With the kind of six weeks he's just had, he can either make a modest comeback and lose respectably, or go out (as my Grandfather Green once described it) in a "blaze of shit."
Here's the usual pundit caveat: A lot can change between now and Election Day.
And here's how I really feel: I don't see how Kerry can come back from this.
No, I'm not drunk. But tonight, I wouldn't blame Kerry for knocking back a few too many.
What has Dan Rather done to Kerry since last Wednesday? The map here is still a longshot, but for the first time, it's a real possibility.
