At the heart of this debate is whether or not the material world was created by spirit. If the material world were not created by spirit, then everything which has occurred since the beginning of space and time are products of the material world. Everything which is incorporeal proceeded from the corporeal. There is no middle ground. There is no other option. Either the material world was created by spirit or it wasn't. All other options will simplify to one of these two lowest common denominators which are mutually exclusive.
So we need to start from that position and examine the evidence we have at our disposal which is creation itself. Specifically, the laws of nature; physical, biological and moral. And how space and time has evolved. And how we perceive God.
I do not accept your premise as to the choices available. The only real fact we have is that currently we have not the slightest clue what happened, if there was an external factor and, if so, what that factor might have been. We have no evidence at our disposal to examine.
That is actually at the heart of the debate. Whether we accept the fact we simply do now know, or insist that this unsupported belief is superior to that unsupported belief.