“I don’t see a blue wave”

[struth]

You can’t just add those numbers. They’re annualized.

fine, .5 growth coming out of Xiden Admin, and 3.0 in second qtr with Trump's policies taking hold.

 

[Marener]

fine, .5 growth coming out of Xiden Admin, and 3.0 in second qtr with Trump's policies taking hold.

Trump was president for most of Q1 he enacted policies which caused the negative growth.

 

[Hafar1014]

No. It’s the effect of Trump’s chaotic trade policies and governing.

Not everything he is doing is bad. He’s made impact on lowering oil prices, but that actually is stunting the growth in domestic energy production. His hands off approach to financial regulation is leading to increased earnings forecasts for that sector, which it’s not like anything bad ever happened because of that.

But for most of the economy, they’re holding back.

Domestic energy production is increasing. We are building nuclear and LNG sales have increased

 

[Marener]

Domestic energy production is increasing. We are building nuclear and LNG sales have increased

Activity in the oil and gas sector contracted slightly in the second quarter of 2025, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. The business activity index, the survey’s broadest measure of the conditions energy firms face in the Eleventh District, turned negative, declining from 3.8 in the first quarter 2025 to -8.1 in the second.

The company outlook index was little changed at -6.4, suggesting slight pessimism among firms. Meanwhile, the outlook uncertainty index increased 4 points to 47.1, indicating elevated uncertainty.

Oil and gas production decreased slightly in the second quarter, according to executives at exploration and production firms. The oil production index fell from 5.6 in the first quarter to -8.9 in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the natural gas production index also turned negative, declining from 4.8 to -4.5.

Among oilfield services firms, the input cost index increased from 30.9 to 40.0. This suggests input costs for oilfield services firms rose at a slightly faster pace than in the prior quarter. Among E&P firms, the finding and development costs index decreased slightly from 17.1 to 11.4. Also, the lease operating expenses index declined from 38.7 to 28.1. This suggests costs for E&P firms rose at a slower pace relative to the prior quarter.

Oilfield services firms reported modest deterioration in nearly all indicators. The equipment utilization index for oilfield services firms was relatively unchanged at -4.6. The operating margin index decreased from -21.5 to -33.4, indicating margins compressed at a faster rate. Meanwhile, the prices received for services index turned negative, falling from 7.1 to -17.7.

Overall, demand for employees fell slightly and those on the job tended to work fewer hours. The aggregate employment index declined from zero in the first quarter to -6.6 in the second. Additionally, the aggregate employee hours index decreased from 0.7 to -5.1. Meanwhile, the aggregate wages and benefits index remained positive but declined from 21.6 to 10.3.

On average, respondents expect a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price of $68 per barrel at year-end 2025; responses ranged from $50 to $85 per barrel. When asked about longer-term expectations, respondents on average said they expect a WTI oil price of $72 per barrel two years from now and $77 per barrel five years from now. Survey participants foresee a Henry Hub natural gas price of $3.66 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) at year-end 2025. When asked about longer-term expectations, respondents on average said they anticipate a Henry Hub gas price of $4.12 per MMBtu two years from now and $4.50 per MMBtu five years from now. For reference, WTI spot prices averaged $69.81 per barrel during the survey collection period, and Henry Hub spot prices averaged $3.30 per MMBtu.

Oil and gas activity contracts slightly as uncertainty remains elevated

Activity in the oil and gas sector contracted slightly in the second quarter of 2025, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

www.dallasfed.org

 

[Hafar1014]

Looking forward oil and LNG production will increase

 

[Correll]

Actually, that is a racist myth.

Sorry buddy. YOu don't get to gloat about it for years and call me racist for discussion how you gloated about it.


Shove it up your ass.

 

[citygator]

It is abnormal.

But this is abnormal times. THe dems are completely irrational, and teh status quo has become so bad that it is easy to improve on.

Until I see it we have 50 straight years of midterm blow outs with almost no exceptions. Your post carries no weight. If Dems had squeezed out the 2024 election I would not bet against a midterm loss for them either. It’s just the cycle.

 

[struth]

Trump was president for most of Q1 he enacted policies which caused the negative growth.

There wasn't negative growth, there was positive growth but only at .5 percent coming out of the prior admin. While he was able to get some things done, they didn't fully get into effect that first qtr

 

[Marener]

There wasn't negative growth, there was positive growth but only at .5 percent coming out of the prior admin. While he was able to get some things done, they didn't fully get into effect that first qtr

Real gross domestic product (GDP)decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

www.bea.gov

Trade war started Feb 1st.

Trump's tariffs have launched global trade wars. Here's a timeline of how we got here

Long-threatened tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump have plunged the country into a global trade war — all while on-again, off-again new levies further escalate uncertainty.

apnews.com

 

[Correll]

Until I see it we have 50 straight years of midterm blow outs with almost no exceptions. Your post carries no weight. If Dems had squeezed out the 2024 election I would not bet against a midterm loss for them either. It’s just the cycle.

ALMOST....


Do you realize how ugly the hate from your side is making you? The support of street violence, the insane support of castrating children, ect?

You are handing us everything maga wants. You are giving us our chance to remake America in our image.

And you can't change your behavior.

You are not well.

 

[struth]

Real gross domestic product (GDP)decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

www.bea.gov

Trade war started Feb 1st.

Trump's tariffs have launched global trade wars. Here's a timeline of how we got here

Long-threatened tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump have plunged the country into a global trade war — all while on-again, off-again new levies further escalate uncertainty.

apnews.com

Yes, the GROWTH decreased, it wasn't negative growth. We haven't had negative growth in GDP since the first two qtrs of 2022, when the Dems policies under Xiden were in full effect.

Sure, the trade wars started Feb 1, and we didn't see the full benefits of the Trump policies until the second qtr of the year, with 3.0 GDP. They really took full effect then climbing out of the Xiden admin.

 

[justoffal]

If everything is so great, why are Republicans demanding a lowering of interest rates?

It’s because the economy is weakening and they need lower interest rates to prop it up.

I'm a fan of lower rates.....
It should super charge real estate....
Not sure what Powell is objecting to
But that particular type of money movement
It's not my strong suit. Maybe if I listened to his reasoning I would change my mind?

 

[justoffal]

The first qtr coming out of the xiden admin we only had a .5 growth, the second qtr with trumps policies in place we got 3.0 growth or 2.5 between qtrs

That’s amazing

Ahhh...

Geez you wouldn't know it the way people are screaming. The only major component right now that is lagging is grocery. I'm surprised it's not front and center of every media effort right now.
It is by far the biggest cudgel the Dems have at this point.

 

[TimFitz]

Something has happened with democrats. It's a soul sucking destruction, a disintegration of decency. They are like Gollum who went from a perfectly normal Hobbit to a twisted and ugly creature.

Look at what they have become. Their idea of a beautiful woman is a twisted parody of hideous creatures pretending to be women and call that beauty. . They mutilate children both physically and mentally and call that medical care. The kill babies in the womb and this this is caring for the reproductive system. They reject science and twist biology to say men can be women, women can be men by opinion

Democrats now stand for everything lawless and evil. They turn from beauty and embrace hideousness.

They need to be rejected and overcome, both personally and politically.

more idiotic projection from a Trumpster.

nothing say “a disintegration of decency” like Trump and his common, vulgar racist tribe.

Nothing stands for evil and lawlessness like Trump and his henchmen.

 

[Marener]

Yes, the GROWTH decreased, it wasn't negative growth. We haven't had negative growth in GDP since the first two qtrs of 2022, when the Dems policies under Xiden were in full effect.

Sure, the trade wars started Feb 1, and we didn't see the full benefits of the Trump policies until the second qtr of the year, with 3.0 GDP. They really took full effect then climbing out of the Xiden admin.

Real GDP declined. That’s negative growth, or to put it another way, contraction.

 

[Marener]

I'm a fan of lower rates.....
It should super charge real estate....
Not sure what Powell is objecting to
But that particular type of money movement
It's not my strong suit. Maybe if I listened to his reasoning I would change my mind?

Mortgage rates follow 10 year treasury rates more than the follow fed rates.

10 year treasury rates aren’t going down. Want to guess why?

 

[EvilCat Breath]

more idiotic projection from a Trumpster.

nothing say “a disintegration of decency” like Trump and his common, vulgar racist tribe.

Nothing stands for evil and lawlessness like Trump and his henchmen.

The democrat in the white house

 

[justoffal]

Mortgage rates follow 10 year treasury rates more than the follow fed rates.

10 year treasury rates aren’t going down. Want to guess why?

I'm all ears....my son runs a multi million real estate business....he tries to explain to me but ya know

 

[kyzr]

Bidenomics delivered. A strong stock market, rising real wages, stable trade policies, low unemployment. All gone, or fading fast.

Bidenomics delivered 9.1% inflation, that hurt US families

Americans need an extra $11,400 today just to afford the basics, Republican analysis finds

Compared with 2021, the typical household must spend an additional $11,434 annually just to maintain their standard of living, analysis shows.

www.cbsnews.com

Americans need an extra $11,400 today just to afford the basics​

Trump is saving the US from Biden's raising the DEBT to $37T, Trump is balancing the budget with tariffs and spending cuts.

 

[Marener]

I'm all ears....my son runs a multi million real estate business....he tries to explain to me but ya know

Treasury rates aren’t coming down because foreign investment into the country is backing off and because the debt and deficits are so high and getting higher.

When the Fed lowered rates by 1% last year, mortgage rates didn’t change.