Huge Recession Coming - Democrats Leading the Charge

[Indeependent]

I don't think they do.

I think an overwhelming number of buyers are people with income-property they bought in 2008-2010....and they rolled the equity from those properties into a new property in 2013...and rolled again in 2014, and so on...

Until now they think they have a mini-empire of 10 or 20 houses or so...

And because the market only goes up (and they are that stupid) they are rolling again....trying to buy what little supply there is...trying to add to their cashflow.

They are too stupid to realize they are buying only from themselves....They are the ones taking equity out of their past properties to add new ones.

This is a classic problem in rolling options (I'm an Options trader) so I see it plain as day.

The US economy is about to get royally fucked. Again. By the dumbest people on earth. House-buyers.

What about Blackrock?
Are they buying up property and selling it suckers?

 

[DarthTrader]

What about Blackrock?
Are they buying up property and selling it suckers?

As the famous Michael Burry says - never read too much into SEC filings of investment firms....they only have to report one side of their trade. You don't know what other side of the trade they have.

For instance I can buy calls. TONS AND TONS of calls. That might seem super bullish. But you don't know if I have short-stock and short-puts and built a dynamic reverse collar on my position, meaning I am very bearish.

A large investor only has to report their long positions, typically.

I therefore can't speculate on BlackRock's positioning with real accuracy.

My first guess would be they are so damned rich they just can't put the money anywhere else. And even a 20% drawdown seems better than parking it in equity which can go down 50%+

Likely they are holding it as equity for their debt positions, and they have massive hedges somewhere, for instance shorting a REIT ETF or such.

 

[Stormy Daniels]

I made a post that detailed a lot of indicators in the Stock Market Forum but no one goes there apparently. Here's a brief set of indicators:

• Housing sales dropped in the largest drop ever, bigger than ever dropped in 2007. 7.2% drop last month. The entire year of 2007 saw a housing sale drop of only 18%. We almost hit 50% of the drop in 2007, in just one month.
• Housing bubble is MASSIVE.
• Inflation is through the roof, monetary inflation, due to helicopter drop of $4.8Trillion.
• Russia war is driving Oil and all commodities through the roof.
• US weaponization of SWIFT and US Dollar endangers its ability to finance its debt.
• Warren Buffett started buying companies again (Occidental and Allegheny); he has a notorious habit of buying companies just before stock market loses 40%. Go look at his track record.
• Yield curves inverting like crazy.

But this is the one I want to bring up here:

U.S. Office Market First Look: 2006-Q4

Grubb & Ellis offers a fourth-quarter summary and makes predictions for the 2007 office market

www.buildings.com

US Office space square foot under construction PEAKS just before MAJOR recessions.

It peaked around:

• 120million sq feet in 2000
• 140million sq feet in 2006
• 142million sq feet as of FEB 2022.

We are in major bubble territory. With a change in culture such that people work from home now more than ever, it makes even less sense that we are at such high sq feet under construction.

What tends to happen is the rising equity in property causes property owners to take out equity and buy more property to try and increase cash flow.

This happens in all classic business cycles back until the beginning of time.

Ever since the days we could save more seeds than we've eaten, we've tried to plant more fields as much as possible in the fat years until oversupply causes the whole debt-system to contract.

Usually inflation precedes these debt-driven deflations, it preceded it in dotCom, and in 2006, and in both cases the FEDs raised rates to try and curb inflation.

In 2006 the FEDs raised rates 14 times, then the yield curves inverted, the FEDs raised rates 3 more times before the whole system imploded.

We have now raised rates one time and the yield curves inverted. If the FED raises again by 50 bp that = 2x raises (each raise being 25bp).

We are raising rates to combat the worse inflation in 40 years, at the worst possible time to do so, with bubbles everywhere, housing especially. Office space bubble is gigantic. No one can afford 6%+ mortgages at these housing prices.

And no one can tolerate 7%+ inflation.

Something has to break, and if it's a choice between inflation and the economy, the FEDs will smash the economy to bits.

More sources:

U.S. Office Market: Is Over-Supply Looming? - Knowledge Leader - Commercial Real Estate Content Hub

Construction activity in the U.S. office market remains elevated while absorption levels are muted. Is this pattern set to continue leading to rising vacancy and downward pressure on rents and pricing? The amount of office space under construction in the U.S. stands at 117.2 million square feet...

knowledge-leader.colliers.com

Don't be ridiculous. Democrats don't have the skill to lead anything, much less a charge.

 

[Dekster]

What about Blackrock?
Are they buying up property and selling it suckers?

Institutional investors like that own like a fraction of a percent of US housing. They are not swooping in and ruining things for everybody.

 

[eagle7-31]

Get ready for a landslide in November.

Maybe. Dominion software is still out there along with drop off voting and the other democrat schemes used to rip off the 2020 election.

 

[Indeependent]

Institutional investors like that own like a fraction of a percent of US housing. They are not swooping in and ruining things for everybody.

I see 3 slums turning into mansion city with the same residents...Uniondale, Roosevelt and Hempstead.
They own, not rent.
Whose giving them the money?

 

[Gabe Lackmann]

I made a post that detailed a lot of indicators in the Stock Market Forum but no one goes there apparently. Here's a brief set of indicators:

• Housing sales dropped in the largest drop ever, bigger than ever dropped in 2007. 7.2% drop last month. The entire year of 2007 saw a housing sale drop of only 18%. We almost hit 50% of the drop in 2007, in just one month.
• Housing bubble is MASSIVE.
• Inflation is through the roof, monetary inflation, due to helicopter drop of $4.8Trillion.
• Russia war is driving Oil and all commodities through the roof.
• US weaponization of SWIFT and US Dollar endangers its ability to finance its debt.
• Warren Buffett started buying companies again (Occidental and Allegheny); he has a notorious habit of buying companies just before stock market loses 40%. Go look at his track record.
• Yield curves inverting like crazy.

But this is the one I want to bring up here:

U.S. Office Market First Look: 2006-Q4

Grubb & Ellis offers a fourth-quarter summary and makes predictions for the 2007 office market

www.buildings.com

US Office space square foot under construction PEAKS just before MAJOR recessions.

It peaked around:

• 120million sq feet in 2000
• 140million sq feet in 2006
• 142million sq feet as of FEB 2022.

We are in major bubble territory. With a change in culture such that people work from home now more than ever, it makes even less sense that we are at such high sq feet under construction.

What tends to happen is the rising equity in property causes property owners to take out equity and buy more property to try and increase cash flow.

This happens in all classic business cycles back until the beginning of time.

Ever since the days we could save more seeds than we've eaten, we've tried to plant more fields as much as possible in the fat years until oversupply causes the whole debt-system to contract.

Usually inflation precedes these debt-driven deflations, it preceded it in dotCom, and in 2006, and in both cases the FEDs raised rates to try and curb inflation.

In 2006 the FEDs raised rates 14 times, then the yield curves inverted, the FEDs raised rates 3 more times before the whole system imploded.

We have now raised rates one time and the yield curves inverted. If the FED raises again by 50 bp that = 2x raises (each raise being 25bp).

We are raising rates to combat the worse inflation in 40 years, at the worst possible time to do so, with bubbles everywhere, housing especially. Office space bubble is gigantic. No one can afford 6%+ mortgages at these housing prices.

And no one can tolerate 7%+ inflation.

Something has to break, and if it's a choice between inflation and the economy, the FEDs will smash the economy to bits.

More sources:

U.S. Office Market: Is Over-Supply Looming? - Knowledge Leader - Commercial Real Estate Content Hub

Construction activity in the U.S. office market remains elevated while absorption levels are muted. Is this pattern set to continue leading to rising vacancy and downward pressure on rents and pricing? The amount of office space under construction in the U.S. stands at 117.2 million square feet...

knowledge-leader.colliers.com

This is a VERY good post.

 

[francoHFW]

This can't be true, because Nancy Pelosi told us that government spending lowers the government debt.

SOME gov't spending duh. Tax the rich and invest in America again. Only the GOP knows how to run a corrupt deregulation bubble and bust recession/depression...Try reality...

 

[1srelluc]

Institutional investors like that own like a fraction of a percent of US housing. They are not swooping in and ruining things for everybody.

It's bigger than a fraction, more like 3-4% and mostly in the sunbelt but you are correct, it's the "Moms & Pops" that hold most rentals in the US.

It's the Blackrocks and Tricons of the institutional investing world that the dems want to demonize.

It's like the guy says at the end.....You may not be able to afford to buy the American Dream but you can rent it.....Maybe.

 

[Dekster]

I see 3 slums turning into mansion city with the same residents...Uniondale, Roosevelt and Hempstead.
They own, not rent.
Whose giving them the money?

Stimulus checks....how the hell am I supposed to know about three areas I've never heard of.

 

[Dekster]

It's bigger than a fraction, more like 3-4% and mostly in the sunbelt but you are correct, it's the "Moms & Pops" that hold most rentals in the US.

It's the Blackrocks and Tricons of the institutional investing world that the dems want to demonize.

It's like the guy says at the end.....You may not be able to afford to buy the American Dream but you can rent it.....Maybe.

A lot of these mom and pop demons actually did what a lot of people weren't doing---after the recession they were buying up properties at firesale prices. Banks were being screwed. There were lawsuits that clogged up foreclosures for years and banks also cannot hold REO properties for long before the regulators are on their ass so they were selling houses for a quarter on the dollar, sometimes less. I have no interest in owning any more rentals than I have, but I bought my current crib that way. Bought it at an REO auction, put a fair amount of money into it, and was still in it total for less than 50 cents on the assessed value dollars. I saw a lot of older $225K -$250K homes sell for $20K to $30Kish 8 to ten years ago that are now $400K homes. Sucks for the whippersnappers, but to everything there is a season, and they are now going to be farmed.

 

[frigidweirdo]

I made a post that detailed a lot of indicators in the Stock Market Forum but no one goes there apparently. Here's a brief set of indicators:

• Housing sales dropped in the largest drop ever, bigger than ever dropped in 2007. 7.2% drop last month. The entire year of 2007 saw a housing sale drop of only 18%. We almost hit 50% of the drop in 2007, in just one month.
• Housing bubble is MASSIVE.
• Inflation is through the roof, monetary inflation, due to helicopter drop of $4.8Trillion.
• Russia war is driving Oil and all commodities through the roof.
• US weaponization of SWIFT and US Dollar endangers its ability to finance its debt.
• Warren Buffett started buying companies again (Occidental and Allegheny); he has a notorious habit of buying companies just before stock market loses 40%. Go look at his track record.
• Yield curves inverting like crazy.

But this is the one I want to bring up here:

U.S. Office Market First Look: 2006-Q4

Grubb & Ellis offers a fourth-quarter summary and makes predictions for the 2007 office market

www.buildings.com

US Office space square foot under construction PEAKS just before MAJOR recessions.

It peaked around:

• 120million sq feet in 2000
• 140million sq feet in 2006
• 142million sq feet as of FEB 2022.

We are in major bubble territory. With a change in culture such that people work from home now more than ever, it makes even less sense that we are at such high sq feet under construction.

What tends to happen is the rising equity in property causes property owners to take out equity and buy more property to try and increase cash flow.

This happens in all classic business cycles back until the beginning of time.

Ever since the days we could save more seeds than we've eaten, we've tried to plant more fields as much as possible in the fat years until oversupply causes the whole debt-system to contract.

Usually inflation precedes these debt-driven deflations, it preceded it in dotCom, and in 2006, and in both cases the FEDs raised rates to try and curb inflation.

In 2006 the FEDs raised rates 14 times, then the yield curves inverted, the FEDs raised rates 3 more times before the whole system imploded.

We have now raised rates one time and the yield curves inverted. If the FED raises again by 50 bp that = 2x raises (each raise being 25bp).

We are raising rates to combat the worse inflation in 40 years, at the worst possible time to do so, with bubbles everywhere, housing especially. Office space bubble is gigantic. No one can afford 6%+ mortgages at these housing prices.

And no one can tolerate 7%+ inflation.

Something has to break, and if it's a choice between inflation and the economy, the FEDs will smash the economy to bits.

More sources:

U.S. Office Market: Is Over-Supply Looming? - Knowledge Leader - Commercial Real Estate Content Hub

Construction activity in the U.S. office market remains elevated while absorption levels are muted. Is this pattern set to continue leading to rising vacancy and downward pressure on rents and pricing? The amount of office space under construction in the U.S. stands at 117.2 million square feet...

knowledge-leader.colliers.com

The US is in a boom and bust economy and has been for a long time. The rich benefit the most. Not all the rich, but a lot of the rich, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer every time there's a recession.

And when it happens people complain, when the economy rebounds everyone forgets.

Bush was in charge the last big economy, and the Republicans don't care, Democrats won't care either.

The US has a fucked up system of government by the rich, for the rich. Fuck everyone else.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Rep. Maxine Waters has testy exchange with crowd over Section 8 vouchers

An event in South Los Angeles that attracted a large crowd of unhoused people seeking housing vouchers descended into chaos on Friday.

www.latimes.com

 

[Indeependent]

Stimulus checks....how the hell am I supposed to know about three areas I've never heard of.

There are poor towns all over the US getting outrageous loans because in the end the lenders will own the property.

 

[Devils_Advocate]

Get ready for a landslide in November.

Yes, the Democrats will win all House Seats and get a Super Majority in the Senate so they can change the second amendment and outlaw white society …

Then I awoke from the nightmare!

 

[Ghost1776]

I made a post that detailed a lot of indicators in the Stock Market Forum but no one goes there apparently. Here's a brief set of indicators:

• Housing sales dropped in the largest drop ever, bigger than ever dropped in 2007. 7.2% drop last month. The entire year of 2007 saw a housing sale drop of only 18%. We almost hit 50% of the drop in 2007, in just one month.
• Housing bubble is MASSIVE.
• Inflation is through the roof, monetary inflation, due to helicopter drop of $4.8Trillion.
• Russia war is driving Oil and all commodities through the roof.
• US weaponization of SWIFT and US Dollar endangers its ability to finance its debt.
• Warren Buffett started buying companies again (Occidental and Allegheny); he has a notorious habit of buying companies just before stock market loses 40%. Go look at his track record.
• Yield curves inverting like crazy.

But this is the one I want to bring up here:

U.S. Office Market First Look: 2006-Q4

Grubb & Ellis offers a fourth-quarter summary and makes predictions for the 2007 office market

www.buildings.com

US Office space square foot under construction PEAKS just before MAJOR recessions.

It peaked around:

• 120million sq feet in 2000
• 140million sq feet in 2006
• 142million sq feet as of FEB 2022.

We are in major bubble territory. With a change in culture such that people work from home now more than ever, it makes even less sense that we are at such high sq feet under construction.

What tends to happen is the rising equity in property causes property owners to take out equity and buy more property to try and increase cash flow.

This happens in all classic business cycles back until the beginning of time.

Ever since the days we could save more seeds than we've eaten, we've tried to plant more fields as much as possible in the fat years until oversupply causes the whole debt-system to contract.

Usually inflation precedes these debt-driven deflations, it preceded it in dotCom, and in 2006, and in both cases the FEDs raised rates to try and curb inflation.

In 2006 the FEDs raised rates 14 times, then the yield curves inverted, the FEDs raised rates 3 more times before the whole system imploded.

We have now raised rates one time and the yield curves inverted. If the FED raises again by 50 bp that = 2x raises (each raise being 25bp).

We are raising rates to combat the worse inflation in 40 years, at the worst possible time to do so, with bubbles everywhere, housing especially. Office space bubble is gigantic. No one can afford 6%+ mortgages at these housing prices.

And no one can tolerate 7%+ inflation.

Something has to break, and if it's a choice between inflation and the economy, the FEDs will smash the economy to bits.

More sources:

U.S. Office Market: Is Over-Supply Looming? - Knowledge Leader - Commercial Real Estate Content Hub

Construction activity in the U.S. office market remains elevated while absorption levels are muted. Is this pattern set to continue leading to rising vacancy and downward pressure on rents and pricing? The amount of office space under construction in the U.S. stands at 117.2 million square feet...

knowledge-leader.colliers.com

This is going to be 2,000 x’s more than a recession , this one the ppl will NOT come out of .
America was warned and warned and warned , but no your msm told you idiots those you should trust were conspiracy nuts lmfao. As usual they get the last laugh, Yall ain’t seen nothing yet.

 

[Ghost1776]

Yes, the Democrats will win all House Seats and get a Super Majority in the Senate so they can change the second amendment and outlaw white society …

Then I awoke from the nightmare!

They will not WIN IT they will STEAL it if ppl do not pay attention.

 

[imawhosure]

To much money is being diverted out of Americans disposable income for fuel, etc. This recession is going to start long before 2023 ever gets here. Do we realize that because of energy prices alone, American families are down between 2 and 300 bucks a month, and when you add food and other essentials to the mix, it is worse than that. When you then add the Fed getting ready to put the kabosh on cheap money to try and tame inflation early this year sending autos and other things financed down the crapper, to believe even America can sustain such hits to their wallet, is a fantasy that only Leftists believe in! By Q-3 this year; if not sooner, the effects will easily be visible.

 

[Ghost1776]

To much money is being diverted out of Americans disposable income for fuel, etc. This recession is going to start long before 2023 ever gets here. Do we realize that because of energy prices alone, American families are down between 2 and 300 bucks a month, and when you add food and other essentials to the mix, it is worse than that. When you then add the Fed getting ready to put the kabosh on cheap money to try and tame inflation early this year sending autos and other things financed down the crapper, to believe even America can sustain such hits to their wallet, is a fantasy that only Leftists believe in! By Q-3 this year; if not sooner, the effects will easily be visible.

They won’t get how severe this is going to be ( even though it’s here now just not full blown yet), yeah all the deniers won’t be denying long lol.

 

[DarthTrader]

A lot of these mom and pop demons actually did what a lot of people weren't doing---after the recession they were buying up properties at firesale prices. Banks were being screwed. There were lawsuits that clogged up foreclosures for years and banks also cannot hold REO properties for long before the regulators are on their ass so they were selling houses for a quarter on the dollar, sometimes less. I have no interest in owning any more rentals than I have, but I bought my current crib that way. Bought it at an REO auction, put a fair amount of money into it, and was still in it total for less than 50 cents on the assessed value dollars. I saw a lot of older $225K -$250K homes sell for $20K to $30Kish 8 to ten years ago that are now $400K homes. Sucks for the whippersnappers, but to everything there is a season, and they are now going to be farmed.

NO, more likely you'll go bankrupt. LOL. Whippersnappers.

I know more about cash flow than you probably do, and I do it in a much more competitive market than you do. Long story short, I short people like you and take your money, all day....all week. You think you have it figured out because you've lived in a 40 year bubble of constant money-printing and debt.

I suggest you wake the fyck up. Russia just declared war on the US Dollar and they are winning that war. Tomorrow. Europe bends the knee, sucks the cock, and pays Russia in 20% earning Rubles.

Russia wins.

By the way - the greatest fucking irony are people like you who think that buying an asset at minus 50%...means that somehow you'll NEVER be under water.

If it tested -50%....it'll test -60%...I fucking GUARANTEE YOU.

The problem with real estate is it is so highly leveraged. Unless you have a way of paying yourself in a self-blind-trust, (you can open them in Nevada, South Dakota, Florida) and making sure the money you make can never be taken when you go bankrupt, then you're exposed to market down turns in a severe way. But - no one thinks houses will lose value AGAIN....it only happened once in 300 years....can't possibly happen a second time right?

They claim +5% housing value DEC 2022. I think it'll be closer to -5% And 2023 will be the scramble for people maybe less solvent than you (maybe you've been wise) to get the hell out of the way of the steam roller.

Imagine.

You're smart....you buy MSFT at $280 a year ago....because it is such a strong company. You'd think you're really smart when it was $330.

Doesn't matter how smart you are...when the people buying on leverage at $330 need to get out of the way of the steam roller it looks like the WTC falling down on itself like a zipper.

US Indexes will fall ~41% easy.

The problem is ever since 2007, houses now fall too, because of high leveraging into that market.

And if you don't have eh...20% buffer in all equity, your cash flow won't be enough to offset the underwater positions for quite some time.