Huge Recession Coming - Democrats Leading the Charge

NO, more likely you'll go bankrupt. LOL. Whippersnappers.

I know more about cash flow than you probably do, and I do it in a much more competitive market than you do. Long story short, I short people like you and take your money, all day....all week. You think you have it figured out because you've lived in a 40 year bubble of constant money-printing and debt.

I suggest you wake the fyck up. Russia just declared war on the US Dollar and they are winning that war. Tomorrow. Europe bends the knee, sucks the cock, and pays Russia in 20% earning Rubles.

Russia wins.

By the way - the greatest fucking irony are people like you who think that buying an asset at minus 50%...means that somehow you'll NEVER be under water.

If it tested -50%....it'll test -60%...I fucking GUARANTEE YOU.

The problem with real estate is it is so highly leveraged. Unless you have a way of paying yourself in a self-blind-trust, (you can open them in Nevada, South Dakota, Florida) and making sure the money you make can never be taken when you go bankrupt, then you're exposed to market down turns in a severe way. But - no one thinks houses will lose value AGAIN....it only happened once in 300 years....can't possibly happen a second time right?

They claim +5% housing value DEC 2022. I think it'll be closer to -5% And 2023 will be the scramble for people maybe less solvent than you (maybe you've been wise) to get the hell out of the way of the steam roller.

Imagine.

You're smart....you buy MSFT at $280 a year ago....because it is such a strong company. You'd think you're really smart when it was $330.

Doesn't matter how smart you are...when the people buying on leverage at $330 need to get out of the way of the steam roller it looks like the WTC falling down on itself like a zipper.

US Indexes will fall ~41% easy.

The problem is ever since 2007, houses now fall too, because of high leveraging into that market.

And if you don't have eh...20% buffer in all equity, your cash flow won't be enough to offset the underwater positions for quite some time.

I agree with you. Younger people do not understand that while there is no top on an investment, there is no bottom either.
 
I agree with you. Younger people do not understand that while there is no top on an investment, there is no bottom either.
You agree Russian rubel is going to beat dollars? :auiqs.jpg:

This guy is a tool pumped full of fantasical propaganda.
 
I made a post that detailed a lot of indicators in the Stock Market Forum but no one goes there apparently. Here's a brief set of indicators:
  • Housing sales dropped in the largest drop ever, bigger than ever dropped in 2007. 7.2% drop last month. The entire year of 2007 saw a housing sale drop of only 18%. We almost hit 50% of the drop in 2007, in just one month.
  • Housing bubble is MASSIVE.
  • Inflation is through the roof, monetary inflation, due to helicopter drop of $4.8Trillion.
  • Russia war is driving Oil and all commodities through the roof.
  • US weaponization of SWIFT and US Dollar endangers its ability to finance its debt.
  • Warren Buffett started buying companies again (Occidental and Allegheny); he has a notorious habit of buying companies just before stock market loses 40%. Go look at his track record.
  • Yield curves inverting like crazy.
But this is the one I want to bring up here:


US Office space square foot under construction PEAKS just before MAJOR recessions.

It peaked around:
  • 120million sq feet in 2000
  • 140million sq feet in 2006
  • 142million sq feet as of FEB 2022.
We are in major bubble territory. With a change in culture such that people work from home now more than ever, it makes even less sense that we are at such high sq feet under construction.

What tends to happen is the rising equity in property causes property owners to take out equity and buy more property to try and increase cash flow.

This happens in all classic business cycles back until the beginning of time.

Ever since the days we could save more seeds than we've eaten, we've tried to plant more fields as much as possible in the fat years until oversupply causes the whole debt-system to contract.

Usually inflation precedes these debt-driven deflations, it preceded it in dotCom, and in 2006, and in both cases the FEDs raised rates to try and curb inflation.

In 2006 the FEDs raised rates 14 times, then the yield curves inverted, the FEDs raised rates 3 more times before the whole system imploded.

We have now raised rates one time and the yield curves inverted. If the FED raises again by 50 bp that = 2x raises (each raise being 25bp).

We are raising rates to combat the worse inflation in 40 years, at the worst possible time to do so, with bubbles everywhere, housing especially. Office space bubble is gigantic. No one can afford 6%+ mortgages at these housing prices.

And no one can tolerate 7%+ inflation.

Something has to break, and if it's a choice between inflation and the economy, the FEDs will smash the economy to bits.

More sources:

Cool story bruh but if you are directly comparing 2007 real estate leverage to current one you have no fucking clue what you are talking about.

Put your money where your mouth is, double dare you.
 
I made a post that detailed a lot of indicators in the Stock Market Forum but no one goes there apparently. Here's a brief set of indicators:
  • Housing sales dropped in the largest drop ever, bigger than ever dropped in 2007. 7.2% drop last month. The entire year of 2007 saw a housing sale drop of only 18%. We almost hit 50% of the drop in 2007, in just one month.
  • Housing bubble is MASSIVE.
  • Inflation is through the roof, monetary inflation, due to helicopter drop of $4.8Trillion.
  • Russia war is driving Oil and all commodities through the roof.
  • US weaponization of SWIFT and US Dollar endangers its ability to finance its debt.
  • Warren Buffett started buying companies again (Occidental and Allegheny); he has a notorious habit of buying companies just before stock market loses 40%. Go look at his track record.
  • Yield curves inverting like crazy.
But this is the one I want to bring up here:


US Office space square foot under construction PEAKS just before MAJOR recessions.

It peaked around:
  • 120million sq feet in 2000
  • 140million sq feet in 2006
  • 142million sq feet as of FEB 2022.
We are in major bubble territory. With a change in culture such that people work from home now more than ever, it makes even less sense that we are at such high sq feet under construction.

What tends to happen is the rising equity in property causes property owners to take out equity and buy more property to try and increase cash flow.

This happens in all classic business cycles back until the beginning of time.

Ever since the days we could save more seeds than we've eaten, we've tried to plant more fields as much as possible in the fat years until oversupply causes the whole debt-system to contract.

Usually inflation precedes these debt-driven deflations, it preceded it in dotCom, and in 2006, and in both cases the FEDs raised rates to try and curb inflation.

In 2006 the FEDs raised rates 14 times, then the yield curves inverted, the FEDs raised rates 3 more times before the whole system imploded.

We have now raised rates one time and the yield curves inverted. If the FED raises again by 50 bp that = 2x raises (each raise being 25bp).

We are raising rates to combat the worse inflation in 40 years, at the worst possible time to do so, with bubbles everywhere, housing especially. Office space bubble is gigantic. No one can afford 6%+ mortgages at these housing prices.

And no one can tolerate 7%+ inflation.

Something has to break, and if it's a choice between inflation and the economy, the FEDs will smash the economy to bits.

More sources:
Rent prices will help soften the housing bubble pop Some----
But all those who used stimulus which includes the Billions given to scammers---often brought properties with down payments instead of cash outright. If no more government stimulus--lots of foreclosures coming as the scammer won't be able to pay the mortgage.
 
You agree Russian rubel is going to beat dollars? :auiqs.jpg:

This guy is a tool pumped full of fantasical propaganda.
Rubel will rebound eventually----
The dollar has printed and is continued to be printed which each additional print lowers the value of the dollar------
To make matters worse--the reason why the dollar has been so stable is that it WAS the currency of OIL. WAS being the operative word here.

I suggest that you find a nice little local auction selling estates that just happens to have a collection of old foreign currency that someone randomly collected from different countries over the years---buy it. Lots of miscellaneous foreign coins generally don't cost much---take it home....and research each coin---------find out why so many have little to no value to purchase anything anymore.
 
Cool story bruh but if you are directly comparing 2007 real estate leverage to current one you have no fucking clue what you are talking about.

Put your money where your mouth is, double dare you.
You opened your dumb mouth, maybe you should explain? The US housing market is MORE leveraged now.

2007 was a problem of liquidity, because banks were using MBS's as "good as money" collateral in place of treasuries. Liquidity isn't exactly an expansion of money supply, but it works the same, they were expanding credit based on a security they treated as good as money but wasn't. When those securities lost value, the contraction was enormous and directly to the cash-credit markets.

Today we have a much more severe problem in the housing market. Asset inflation. When it deflates it will directly destroy value of consumers ability to consume.
 
Yes, there is a recession coming.

But no one can tell when that will be, how bad it will be, or how long it will last.

No one. Including the brightest, most experienced minds on Wall Street.

And especially not some arrogant, ignorant Trumpster obviously hoping for the worst.
LOLOLOL. Go listen to those brilliant minds then. They all tell you we are in a 2-sigma deviation, that's as big as the great depression. We've never seen anything like it, not even the dotCom.
 
You agree Russian rubel is going to beat dollars? :auiqs.jpg:

This guy is a tool pumped full of fantasical propaganda.

I never, ever, said that! Show me where I said that please!

I proclaimed that there is no top, or bottom on an investment. I also agreed with the poster that if Russia gets its way and has its payment for energy in Rubles instead of dollars or Euros, this is a bad thing.

Know why it is a bad thing?

Because as of this moment, every country has to have dollars or Euros on hand to pay for transactions because it is the coin of the worlds realm. Allow a country to make over seas transactions in other currencies, and guess what happens to those dollars and Euros held in reserve for those transactions!

You want inflation! Imagine all those dollars or Euros being released on to the world market, as some of it is no longer needed to pay over seas bills to another large economy. What do you think the Fed would be FORCED to do then?
 
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  • Harley Bassman (Inventor of the MOVE index *VIX for the bond market*) thinks draw down will be biggest since depression
  • Joseph Wang (Bond trader for Fed)
  • Darius Dale (-41% in markets)
  • Jeremy Grantham (Short trader) US assets in biggest bubble he's ever seen by $4.8Trillion in money printing.
  • Many others.
 
I never, ever, said that! Show me where I said that please!

I proclaimed that there is no top, or bottom on an investment. I also agreed with the poster that if Russia gets its way and has its payment for energy in Rubles instead of dollars or Euros, this is a bad thing.

Know why it is a bad thing?

Because as of this moment, every country has to have dollars or Euros on hand to pay for transactions because it is the coin of the worlds realm. Allow a country to make over seas transactions in other currencies, and guess what happens to those dollars and Euros held in reserve for those transactions!

You want inflation! Imagine all those dollars or Euros being released on to the world market, as some of it is no longer needed to pay over seas bills to another large economy.
They don't understand basic fucking supply and demand.

These same idiots blame Oil companies for high prices instead of Biden for capping wells.

Dollars are in demand. But Rubles are in MORE demand. But a lot. Ruble "bond premium" is massive. US bonds trade at a discount. Means there's a net flow from dollars to rubles.

Because someone in the world thinks they are going to suddenly need a shit ton of rubles and less dollars.
 
I never, ever, said that! Show me where I said that please!
Thats what he was saying in the post you said you quoted in agreement with him.

Maybe you should cut away stuff you don't agree with when saying that.
 
You opened your dumb mouth, maybe you should explain? The US housing market is MORE leveraged now.

Again you don't know what you are talking about, probably because you don't actually live in United States.

1. Great Recession was a wake up call to private market, GSEs and regulators and the downturn risks in real estate sector, which changed mortgage requiments for downpayments, stress tested large finanancial institutions and ensured much higher capital reserves going forward.

2. Demand for real estate may pull back some, but it would be pulling back from the some of the highest demand this country has ever seen. People litterally gave up on buing a home because everything is so expensive and will jump at a chance to get a home of their own as soon as the prices come down some. If there will be a contraction in that sector it will be a very mild one, just due to pent up demand in the background.

3. General Inflation along with income growth in current market - this again insures that real estate value will not drastically contract realtive to income.
 
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They don't understand basic fucking supply and demand.

These same idiots blame Oil companies for high prices instead of Biden for capping wells.

Dollars are in demand. But Rubles are in MORE demand. But a lot. Ruble "bond premium" is massive. US bonds trade at a discount. Means there's a net flow from dollars to rubles.

Because someone in the world thinks they are going to suddenly need a shit ton of rubles and less dollars.

Well, we can hope it is temporary, but it never ceases to amaze me how some of these people have zero clue what is actually going on, and how it could affect them, along with our administrations position, and the effect that has too.

From my perspective, to many people are shortsighted, and rely on their politicians to much to tell them what is actually happening. For every action, there is a reaction with consequences, no matter which action you choose. If people understand the consequences and agree to live with them, I have no problem. But if they have no idea, they should try and start getting themselves informed so they can make choices they can live with, when the consequences come knocking on their door!
 
NO, more likely you'll go bankrupt. LOL. Whippersnappers.

I know more about cash flow than you probably do, and I do it in a much more competitive market than you do. Long story short, I short people like you and take your money, all day....all week. You think you have it figured out because you've lived in a 40 year bubble of constant money-printing and debt.

I suggest you wake the fyck up. Russia just declared war on the US Dollar and they are winning that war. Tomorrow. Europe bends the knee, sucks the cock, and pays Russia in 20% earning Rubles.

Russia wins.

By the way - the greatest fucking irony are people like you who think that buying an asset at minus 50%...means that somehow you'll NEVER be under water.

If it tested -50%....it'll test -60%...I fucking GUARANTEE YOU.

The problem with real estate is it is so highly leveraged. Unless you have a way of paying yourself in a self-blind-trust, (you can open them in Nevada, South Dakota, Florida) and making sure the money you make can never be taken when you go bankrupt, then you're exposed to market down turns in a severe way. But - no one thinks houses will lose value AGAIN....it only happened once in 300 years....can't possibly happen a second time right?

They claim +5% housing value DEC 2022. I think it'll be closer to -5% And 2023 will be the scramble for people maybe less solvent than you (maybe you've been wise) to get the hell out of the way of the steam roller.

Imagine.

You're smart....you buy MSFT at $280 a year ago....because it is such a strong company. You'd think you're really smart when it was $330.

Doesn't matter how smart you are...when the people buying on leverage at $330 need to get out of the way of the steam roller it looks like the WTC falling down on itself like a zipper.

US Indexes will fall ~41% easy.

The problem is ever since 2007, houses now fall too, because of high leveraging into that market.

And if you don't have eh...20% buffer in all equity, your cash flow won't be enough to offset the underwater positions for quite some time.

Yawns. I am less than two years until my mortgage is paid off and I already have the cash on hand to do it. None of my other properties have a mortgage on them.

Bankrupt!!!!! you crack me up, Internet God. :auiqs.jpg:
 
Yawns. I am less than two years until my mortgage is paid off and I already have the cash on hand to do it. None of my other properties have a mortgage on them.

Bankrupt!!!!! you crack me up, Internet God. :auiqs.jpg:
Sure bud. Sure. Good luck renting them out in 2 years. Or ever selling them, or getting a HELOC.

But hey at least you got equity on paper.

Recession coming. Owning a house doesn't mean shit.
 
Sure bud. Sure. Good luck renting them out in 2 years. Or ever selling them, or getting a HELOC.

But hey at least you got equity on paper.

Recession coming. Owning a house doesn't mean shit.

BFD. I never plan to sell a single one of them and housing will never go to zero. The commercial properties, who knows.
 
Cite ONE operating well capped by Biden.

ONE
Lol loser - "capped by Biden" is a simplistic way of explaining ALL THE COMPLEX problems Biden Admin has introduced to prevent drilling for more oil.

Here's ONE of many examples. But it's too complex for you to understand.

 
BFD. I never plan to sell a single one of them and housing will never go to zero. The commercial properties, who knows.
Paper money isn't real money - just saying. Do you pay for your meals with timbers from your house lol?

Like I said, you're about to get a real rude awakening. The US hasn't experienced a global crisis like this in 40+ years. And even then, the inflation of the 70s was due to productivity increases in the US and is therefore not a strong correlation.

US has never in 246 years of its history, printed money and just given it to people. That's called "Helicopter drops" and is the worst form of inflation imaginable. 2020 to 2022 the US has printed $4.8Trillion and gifted it into people's pockets. "Helicopter drops".

Don't say I didn't warn you. I didn't think 2008 was "that bad". And it wasn't, we limped along with great profits for another 14 years.

Today is different. You'll be lucky to have rents paid in a few years at this rate. If they don't turn it around. Need better geopolitical situation, need to raise rates and keep them there, need to raise taxes, need to cut spending. Need to bite the bullet.

Otherwise, your houses will probably lose half their value and be unoccupied.
 

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