imawhosure
Platinum Member
- Apr 25, 2015
- 9,212
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NO, more likely you'll go bankrupt. LOL. Whippersnappers.
I know more about cash flow than you probably do, and I do it in a much more competitive market than you do. Long story short, I short people like you and take your money, all day....all week. You think you have it figured out because you've lived in a 40 year bubble of constant money-printing and debt.
I suggest you wake the fyck up. Russia just declared war on the US Dollar and they are winning that war. Tomorrow. Europe bends the knee, sucks the cock, and pays Russia in 20% earning Rubles.
Russia wins.
By the way - the greatest fucking irony are people like you who think that buying an asset at minus 50%...means that somehow you'll NEVER be under water.
If it tested -50%....it'll test -60%...I fucking GUARANTEE YOU.
The problem with real estate is it is so highly leveraged. Unless you have a way of paying yourself in a self-blind-trust, (you can open them in Nevada, South Dakota, Florida) and making sure the money you make can never be taken when you go bankrupt, then you're exposed to market down turns in a severe way. But - no one thinks houses will lose value AGAIN....it only happened once in 300 years....can't possibly happen a second time right?
They claim +5% housing value DEC 2022. I think it'll be closer to -5% And 2023 will be the scramble for people maybe less solvent than you (maybe you've been wise) to get the hell out of the way of the steam roller.
Imagine.
You're smart....you buy MSFT at $280 a year ago....because it is such a strong company. You'd think you're really smart when it was $330.
Doesn't matter how smart you are...when the people buying on leverage at $330 need to get out of the way of the steam roller it looks like the WTC falling down on itself like a zipper.
US Indexes will fall ~41% easy.
The problem is ever since 2007, houses now fall too, because of high leveraging into that market.
And if you don't have eh...20% buffer in all equity, your cash flow won't be enough to offset the underwater positions for quite some time.
I agree with you. Younger people do not understand that while there is no top on an investment, there is no bottom either.