How's this for increasing hurricane activity....

[usmbguest5318]

2017's hurricane season is, by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, the ninth most active one on record, and it's not over. Moreover, five of the top ten 'canes are in the "global warming era." Of course, any one year's hurricanes, storms, rainfall, etc. is merely weather behavior, not climate behavior. What matters are trends, quantities, strengths and durations.


I guess we should be happy. Jose, like many Latinos, didn't come to the U.S. LOL

 

[Billy_Bob]

One year increase after a 14 year decline does not make it an emergency or unusual... Freaking moron... Still within known Natural Variation cycle limits..

We've only been naming storms now for about 20 years and three years ago they lowered the limits at which storms were named.. So by design there would be an increase in named storms..

More alarmist bull shit....

 

[skookerasbil]

lol.....a couple of the usual suspects in here..........the alarmist OCD's.........would have us thinking we are on the verge of The Day After Tomorrow happening next week. These people get hysterical when there is even a tropical depression someplace in the world. Imagine being around these people if a cluster of thunderstorms came through your area.I mean.....holy ****! Imagine 24/7/365 being wired in such a way...........reminds me of the Italian folks here in Brooklyn when you go to a wake. The wiring is just set for all hysterical all the time. The handful of those washwomen who show up to the supermarket and are pulling around 4 shopping carts because a 6" snowstorm is coming. We all know the type...........these are the same people you find in here waiting for the house to fall out of the sky on their heads.

 

[Likkmee]

Hows this for reality ?
Lemme tell AlGore to cancel your check

 

[Likkmee]

Its nearly a US phenomenon that couldn't happen to a more fucked up bunch.

 

[flacaltenn]

One year increase after a 14 year decline does not make it an emergency or unusual... Freaking moron... Still within known Natural Variation cycle limits..

We've only been naming storms now for about 20 years and three years ago they lowered the limits at which storms were named.. So by design there would be an increase in named storms..

More alarmist bull shit....

In addition the term "on record" is pretty deceiving since we've only had the ability to ACCURATELY measure ACE for about 60 years. The more you toss automated instrumentation, satellites, buoys, etc -- the HIGHER the ACE values become. A storm that tops at CAT3 TODAY for 6 hours, would have been missed 60 years ago.

So "the record" is NOT THAT LONG, nor is it uniform in the quality of data that supports it.. This is openly acknowledged by most all experts on the topic.

 

[Billy_Bob]

As usual Dr Judith Curry puts the hype into perspective...

"The group that I like is really the NOAA group in Boulder, who looks at the historical record and tries to see is there anything unusual. Looking back a hundred years, is this exceptional in any way? If it is not particularly exceptional, given the record we have for the last hundred years, then it’s hard to argue that climate changed. Occasionally we do get genuinely record-breaking events. Then we need to trace back to what was the atmospheric dynamics, and whatever that contributed to that event and you need to tease it out. It needs a lot of detective work.

There is this new movement to use climate models with natural variability, and then human-caused global warming, but these same climate models they’re using can’t resolve these extreme events. They can’t produce hurricanes, they don’t have the right event-weather distribution to provide heatwaves. It is just Voodoo statistics that they’re playing with these models — which do not have the capability to predict these extreme events in the current climate or an unperturbed climate anyways. I’m not very impressed with the model-based attribution arguments. Carefully-constructed diagnostic analysis and comparisons with historical events — to me those are of much more value."

Dr Curry operates a hurricane and weather forecasting business now after being the director of a major college science program and she hits the nail right on the head. NATURAL VARIATION...

Cutting through the myths about Irma, Harvey, and climate change.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Clearly we need more data, but it's really more of an exercise than it is required support for climate theory. We already know that warmer water will lead to stronger hurricanes, and we know the water is warming.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Clearly we need more data, but it's really more of an exercise than it is required support for climate theory. We already know that warmer water will lead to stronger hurricanes, and we know the water is warming.

Dr Curry just tore into this meme and showed how it was crap. There is no link proven at this time.. Even the boys over at the Boulder Co AP lab say there is no link..

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Clearly we need more data, but it's really more of an exercise than it is required support for climate theory. We already know that warmer water will lead to stronger hurricanes, and we know the water is warming.

Dr Curry just tore into this meme and showed how it was crap. There is no link proven at this time.. Even the boys over at the Boulder Co AP lab say there is no link..

See, this is one of the reasons you sound so very stupid whenever you open your mouth about this topic. ONe scientist or even a few saying they don't agree with something does not make it "untrue". that's the ultimate absurdity of your own "arguments to authority"... you think presenting a tiny fraction of dissenting opinion proves something false, when, in reality, if the "authority of scientists" is what actually compelled you, you would agree with the overwhelming consensus. Are you even fooling yourself with this nonsense?

And, of course , there is and will be a link, as the simple principle that warmer water will, on the average, lead to more intense hurricanes is a well-known fact. Time will yield the data which demonstrates it, but it is only an exercise. this is accepted fact.

And what the hell is "Boulder Co AP lab"? I am going to scrutinize your claim.

 

[Old Rocks]

As usual Dr Judith Curry puts the hype into perspective...

"The group that I like is really the NOAA group in Boulder, who looks at the historical record and tries to see is there anything unusual. Looking back a hundred years, is this exceptional in any way? If it is not particularly exceptional, given the record we have for the last hundred years, then it’s hard to argue that climate changed. Occasionally we do get genuinely record-breaking events. Then we need to trace back to what was the atmospheric dynamics, and whatever that contributed to that event and you need to tease it out. It needs a lot of detective work.

There is this new movement to use climate models with natural variability, and then human-caused global warming, but these same climate models they’re using can’t resolve these extreme events. They can’t produce hurricanes, they don’t have the right event-weather distribution to provide heatwaves. It is just Voodoo statistics that they’re playing with these models — which do not have the capability to predict these extreme events in the current climate or an unperturbed climate anyways. I’m not very impressed with the model-based attribution arguments. Carefully-constructed diagnostic analysis and comparisons with historical events — to me those are of much more value."

Dr Curry operates a hurricane and weather forecasting business now after being the director of a major college science program and she hits the nail right on the head. NATURAL VARIATION...

Cutting through the myths about Irma, Harvey, and climate change.

So, Curry has gone from peer reviewed journals to WUWT. In your world that would seem to represent a step up. For the rest of us out here in reality, that is a sad progression.

 

[Old Rocks]

Clearly we need more data, but it's really more of an exercise than it is required support for climate theory. We already know that warmer water will lead to stronger hurricanes, and we know the water is warming.

Dr Curry just tore into this meme and showed how it was crap. There is no link proven at this time.. Even the boys over at the Boulder Co AP lab say there is no link..

See, this is one of the reasons you sound so very stupid whenever you open your mouth about this topic. ONe scientist or even a few saying they don't agree with something does not make it "untrue". that's the ultimate absurdity of your own "arguments to authority"... you think presenting a tiny fraction of dissenting opinion proves something false, when, in reality, if the "authority of scientists" is what actually compelled you, you would agree with the overwhelming consensus. Are you even fooling yourself with this nonsense?

And, of course , there is and will be a link, as the simple principle that warmer water will, on the average, lead to more intense hurricanes is a well-known fact. Time will yield the data which demonstrates it, but it is only an exercise. this is accepted fact.

And what the hell is "Boulder Co AP lab"? I am going to scrutinize your claim.

MCDB Lower Division Lab Requirement Options - MCD Biology
MCDB Lower Division Lab Requirement Options
Feb 8, 2017 - Lower Division Lab Requirement Options ... While students who have earned AP biology credit (which is ... University of Colorado Boulder
Smith Lab Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology ...
www.colorado.edu/smithlab/
Welcome to the Smith Lab website! Our lab provides a collaborative and supportive environment for researchers studying the evolution of plant trait diversity,

 

[depotoo]

And you realize that we have begun flying storms now to get measurements, which we didn't do before, even those threatening the leeward islands. Before they guesstimated, still do, today, until they think one might be a threat. Some they find much higher than what they actually guesstimated, which historically probably happened all the time.

Clearly we need more data, but it's really more of an exercise than it is required support for climate theory. We already know that warmer water will lead to stronger hurricanes, and we know the water is warming.

Dr Curry just tore into this meme and showed how it was crap. There is no link proven at this time.. Even the boys over at the Boulder Co AP lab say there is no link..

See, this is one of the reasons you sound so very stupid whenever you open your mouth about this topic. ONe scientist or even a few saying they don't agree with something does not make it "untrue". that's the ultimate absurdity of your own "arguments to authority"... you think presenting a tiny fraction of dissenting opinion proves something false, when, in reality, if the "authority of scientists" is what actually compelled you, you would agree with the overwhelming consensus. Are you even fooling yourself with this nonsense?

And, of course , there is and will be a link, as the simple principle that warmer water will, on the average, lead to more intense hurricanes is a well-known fact. Time will yield the data which demonstrates it, but it is only an exercise. this is accepted fact.

And what the hell is "Boulder Co AP lab"? I am going to scrutinize your claim.

 

[flacaltenn]

Clearly we need more data, but it's really more of an exercise than it is required support for climate theory. We already know that warmer water will lead to stronger hurricanes, and we know the water is warming.

Dr Curry just tore into this meme and showed how it was crap. There is no link proven at this time.. Even the boys over at the Boulder Co AP lab say there is no link..

See, this is one of the reasons you sound so very stupid whenever you open your mouth about this topic. ONe scientist or even a few saying they don't agree with something does not make it "untrue". that's the ultimate absurdity of your own "arguments to authority"... you think presenting a tiny fraction of dissenting opinion proves something false, when, in reality, if the "authority of scientists" is what actually compelled you, you would agree with the overwhelming consensus. Are you even fooling yourself with this nonsense?

And, of course , there is and will be a link, as the simple principle that warmer water will, on the average, lead to more intense hurricanes is a well-known fact. Time will yield the data which demonstrates it, but it is only an exercise. this is accepted fact.

And what the hell is "Boulder Co AP lab"? I am going to scrutinize your claim.

MCDB Lower Division Lab Requirement Options - MCD Biology
MCDB Lower Division Lab Requirement Options
Feb 8, 2017 - Lower Division Lab Requirement Options ... While students who have earned AP biology credit (which is ... University of Colorado Boulder
Smith Lab Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology ...
www.colorado.edu/smithlab/
Welcome to the Smith Lab website! Our lab provides a collaborative and supportive environment for researchers studying the evolution of plant trait diversity,

Shame you can't read a curriculum description and recognize Advanced Placement (as in High School AP) from Atmospheric Physics.

That chart is largely just a reflection of flying more P3 hunters on LONGER routes. You can only VERIFY Category that way. And you will catch storms that ATTAIN a higher Cat for just a mere matter of HOURS with higher levels of surveillance.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Clearly we need more data, but it's really more of an exercise than it is required support for climate theory. We already know that warmer water will lead to stronger hurricanes, and we know the water is warming.

Dr Curry just tore into this meme and showed how it was crap. There is no link proven at this time.. Even the boys over at the Boulder Co AP lab say there is no link..

See, this is one of the reasons you sound so very stupid whenever you open your mouth about this topic. ONe scientist or even a few saying they don't agree with something does not make it "untrue". that's the ultimate absurdity of your own "arguments to authority"... you think presenting a tiny fraction of dissenting opinion proves something false, when, in reality, if the "authority of scientists" is what actually compelled you, you would agree with the overwhelming consensus. Are you even fooling yourself with this nonsense?

And, of course , there is and will be a link, as the simple principle that warmer water will, on the average, lead to more intense hurricanes is a well-known fact. Time will yield the data which demonstrates it, but it is only an exercise. this is accepted fact.

And what the hell is "Boulder Co AP lab"? I am going to scrutinize your claim.

MCDB Lower Division Lab Requirement Options - MCD Biology
MCDB Lower Division Lab Requirement Options
Feb 8, 2017 - Lower Division Lab Requirement Options ... While students who have earned AP biology credit (which is ... University of Colorado Boulder
Smith Lab Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology ...
www.colorado.edu/smithlab/
Welcome to the Smith Lab website! Our lab provides a collaborative and supportive environment for researchers studying the evolution of plant trait diversity,

Shame you can't read a curriculum description and recognize Advanced Placement (as in High School AP) from Atmospheric Physics.

That chart is largely just a reflection of flying more P3 hunters on LONGER routes. You can only VERIFY Category that way. And you will catch storms that ATTAIN a higher Cat for just a mere matter of HOURS with higher levels of surveillance.

These people have a huge problem with context.. They only apply it when it fits their narrative and ignore it when it doesnt.

 

[flacaltenn]

The other thing about that chart is that it's a factoid missing definition and context. What IS "Percent of hurricanes reaching CAT 3+?" Is it the percentage of all Invests, TDs, TStorms? Or is it just the percentage of storms that tip 75mph?

In a period of severe HURRICANE DROUGHT -- like the 15 years from 2000 to 2015, the smaller POPULATION of storms will give HIGHER values for that qualifier. If there were be to be only 4 that made it to 75mph, and 2 intensified past CAT3 --- that would be 50%. Whereas in a year with 10 and 4 intensified, that's twice as many SERIOUS hurricanes, but less of a percentage. I don't think it means much at all.

 

[skookerasbil]

As usual Dr Judith Curry puts the hype into perspective...

"The group that I like is really the NOAA group in Boulder, who looks at the historical record and tries to see is there anything unusual. Looking back a hundred years, is this exceptional in any way? If it is not particularly exceptional, given the record we have for the last hundred years, then it’s hard to argue that climate changed. Occasionally we do get genuinely record-breaking events. Then we need to trace back to what was the atmospheric dynamics, and whatever that contributed to that event and you need to tease it out. It needs a lot of detective work.

There is this new movement to use climate models with natural variability, and then human-caused global warming, but these same climate models they’re using can’t resolve these extreme events. They can’t produce hurricanes, they don’t have the right event-weather distribution to provide heatwaves. It is just Voodoo statistics that they’re playing with these models — which do not have the capability to predict these extreme events in the current climate or an unperturbed climate anyways. I’m not very impressed with the model-based attribution arguments. Carefully-constructed diagnostic analysis and comparisons with historical events — to me those are of much more value."

Dr Curry operates a hurricane and weather forecasting business now after being the director of a major college science program and she hits the nail right on the head. NATURAL VARIATION...

Cutting through the myths about Irma, Harvey, and climate change.

So, Curry has gone from peer reviewed journals to WUWT. In your world that would seem to represent a step up. For the rest of us out here in reality, that is a sad progression.

The reality of the alarmist view of climate science? Whoooopty doo..........

The alarmists keep pointing at Curry as if she is completely out of step with the reality when the fact is.......indisputable by the way........the entire world embraces the views of Dr Curry. Look at the energy policies of ALL of the western world countries.........

THATS the reality.

Curry's biggest billboard is that we have much to learn about climate change..........the world agree's. That's all that matters...........in the real world.

In the end, they embrace the so-called "luke warmer" school of thought..........nothing can be more clear as fossil fuels set to dominate the energy landscape for decades to come.

 

[usmbguest5318]

In a period of severe HURRICANE DROUGHT -- like the 15 years from 2000 to 2015

???

• TCFAQ E11) How many tropical cyclones have there been each year in the

 

[flacaltenn]

In a period of severe HURRICANE DROUGHT -- like the 15 years from 2000 to 2015

???

• TCFAQ E11) How many tropical cyclones have there been each year in the

You need to read the notes that go along with this data..

Take out 2005, or start the decade from 2006 and the comments stand. There's a lot of "artificiality" in this accumulation. Including ---

& Landsea et al. (2010) documented a rather large increase in short-lived tropical storms and hurricanes in the last decade, which is likely due to improved monitoring capabilities, that may be influencing the climatological average number of TCs in the Atlantic basin. With the artificial jump in the 2000s in the frequency of short-lived systems, a more realistic estimate of the long-term climatology may be closer to 13 tropical storms and hurricanes per year.

 

[usmbguest5318]

In a period of severe HURRICANE DROUGHT -- like the 15 years from 2000 to 2015

???

• TCFAQ E11) How many tropical cyclones have there been each year in the

You need to read the notes that go along with this data..

Take out 2005, or start the decade from 2006 and the comments stand. There's a lot of "artificiality" in this accumulation. Including ---

& Landsea et al. (2010) documented a rather large increase in short-lived tropical storms and hurricanes in the last decade, which is likely due to improved monitoring capabilities, that may be influencing the climatological average number of TCs in the Atlantic basin. With the artificial jump in the 2000s in the frequency of short-lived systems, a more realistic estimate of the long-term climatology may be closer to 13 tropical storms and hurricanes per year.

You need to look at the table titled "Atlantic basin Individual years with the numbers in each category" and observe that it indicates that, on average, there are about 6 Atlantic hurricanes per year and then look at the quantity of hurricanes that happened between 2000 and 2015. There was no dearth of hurricanes in those years. Five of those years had fewer than six 'canes and all the rest of the years had six or more. The data isn't artificial. It's right there in black and white.