Being trapped in your house is horrible. You have to sleep late, watch television and live stream movies, spend time with your kids and spouse, read books, dig out your old guitar, examine your gun collection and clean all of them, clean your basement, wax your car, go back and spend more time with your spouse and kids and listen to your old vinyl records.
That’s if you’re still working and 25mil are not. What if you have an elderly parent you cannot see? What if you have a family business you have to shut down and it causes you to lose your home and you cannot pay for your kids college educations? What if you have a torn ACL and you cannot get surgery so you’re in constant pain? You enjoy being lazy and listening to Air Supply but not everyone feels the same way.
People go through the shit you describe all the time. Why all of the sudden is it such a crisis?
Most of us have come together to protect the most vulnerable in our society. Being a senior citizen is not a choice. Being born with a genetic condition is not a choice. I don't think we should sacrifice the weakest for the comfort of the selfish.
Being trapped in your house is horrible. You have to sleep late, watch television and live stream movies, spend time with your kids and spouse, read books, dig out your old guitar, examine your gun collection and clean all of them, clean your basement, wax your car, go back and spend more time with your spouse and kids and listen to your old vinyl records.
That’s if you’re still working and 25mil are not. What if you have an elderly parent you cannot see? What if you have a family business you have to shut down and it causes you to lose your home and you cannot pay for your kids college educations? What if you have a torn ACL and you cannot get surgery so you’re in constant pain? You enjoy being lazy and listening to Air Supply but not everyone feels the same way.
People go through the shit you describe all the time. Why all of the sudden is it such a crisis?
Most of us have come together to protect the most vulnerable in our society. Being a senior citizen is not a choice. Being born with a genetic condition is not a choice. I don't think we should sacrifice the weakest for the comfort of the selfish.
The rate of covid-19 deaths is exponential and can reach a very very high level at high speed but can also drop at a faster speed to zero.
I would say, it will end in mid-august.
"How many Deaths from COVID19 do you Think We Will Have by the End of this year?"
We can't know until we start using better numbers. It's been a huge problem all along.
We have to get a better grip on actual numbers of infections. This impacts R0, or transmission rate. Not having accurate numbers here means we don't have a grip on how many infections we will have and everything flows down from that number.
That the data has been so horrible is obvious both in terms of the actual numbers we have seen relative to the early projections, as well as how large the projected ranges are.
A simple model, works like this
'We present a basic epidemiological compartmental model (a susceptible–infected–recovered or SIR model with S, I, and R representing the 3 compartments) described by Kermack and McKendrick.12 In this relatively simple model designed to describe epidemics, individuals start as susceptible to a particular pathogen and then progress to the other 2 compartments if infected. The model is defined by a system of 3 ordinary differential equations (ODEs):
in which β is the transmission rate, γ is the recovery rate (or the inverse of the infectious period), and N is the total population size such that N = S + I + R. The standard model in equation 1 assumes no births or deaths. At the beginning of the outbreak or epidemic (t = 0) we assume the population is composed entirely of susceptible individuals and a single infectious individual. With this model, if the transmission rate exceeds the recovery rate (i.e., β/γ > 1), the disease will spread (dI/dt > 0). Alternatively, β/γ is the number of new infections per unit time multiplied by the time period of infectiousness, and describes the number of new infections resulting from the initially infected individual. In the presented case of the simple SIR model, the basic reproduction number (or ratio) equals β/γ."
We assessed public health use of R0, the basic reproduction number, which estimates the speed at which a disease is capable of spreading in a population. These estimates are of great public health interest, as evidenced during the 2009 influenza A ...
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
You don't have to understand all of that to get that, if we are using only the formally diagnosed cases, that the models will be way off in terms of projecting numbers of possible infections. Everything flows down from that. If those numbers are off, we cannot then project numbers of hospitalizations or deaths with any degree of accuracy.
We now know that this was here before we realized it and was likely more widespread than we realized when they ran the initial models. They still don't have a firm grasp on the true number of infections now, as randomized antibody testing has not been rolled out.
Throw into the mix that the mortality numbers we started with were in 5-6% range, which is clearly wrong, and they are still grappling with what that number looks like, and it becomes pretty obvious why we cannot predict either cases or deaths with much accuracy at this point, which explains why all of the models have such wide ranges of possible outcomes.
You're so sleazy: Cumulative number of coronavirus cases in the Nordics 2020
Published by F. Norrestad, Apr 30, 2020
The highest number of confirmed coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in the Nordic countries as of April 30, 2020 was in Sweden, where the number amounted to 21,092. Denmark followed with 9,158 cases, and Norway with 7,710 cases.
The highest number of confirmed coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in the Nordic countries as of October 27, 2024, was in Denmark, where the number amounted to 3,442,484.
Your own link proves you wrong dumb ass. Norway and Finland, neighbors of Sweden, have populations of 5.3 and 5.5 million people compared to Sweden's 10 million population. Norway and Finland have suffered 210 and 218 COVID 19 deaths while, as I said, Sweden has suffered 2,650 deaths. So, Sweden has seen over 10 times the
number of deaths as neighbors on west and neighbor on east.
You're so sleazy: Cumulative number of coronavirus cases in the Nordics 2020
Published by F. Norrestad, Apr 30, 2020
The highest number of confirmed coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in the Nordic countries as of April 30, 2020 was in Sweden, where the number amounted to 21,092. Denmark followed with 9,158 cases, and Norway with 7,710 cases.
The highest number of confirmed coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in the Nordic countries as of October 27, 2024, was in Denmark, where the number amounted to 3,442,484.
Your own link proves you wrong dumb ass. Norway and Finland, neighbors of Sweden, have populations of 5.3 and 5.5 million people compared to Sweden's 10 million population. Norway and Finland have suffered 210 and 218 COVID 19 deaths while, as I said, Sweden has suffered 2,650 deaths. So, Sweden has seen over 10 times the
number of deaths as neighbors on west and neighbor on east.
Dr. Birx has stated we’ll start to see a steep decline in deaths at the end of May, so if we continue to see same number of deaths per day this month we should get to somewhere around 100k deaths after may.
You're so sleazy: Cumulative number of coronavirus cases in the Nordics 2020
Published by F. Norrestad, Apr 30, 2020
The highest number of confirmed coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in the Nordic countries as of April 30, 2020 was in Sweden, where the number amounted to 21,092. Denmark followed with 9,158 cases, and Norway with 7,710 cases.
The highest number of confirmed coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in the Nordic countries as of October 27, 2024, was in Denmark, where the number amounted to 3,442,484.
Your own link proves you wrong dumb ass. Norway and Finland, neighbors of Sweden, have populations of 5.3 and 5.5 million people compared to Sweden's 10 million population. Norway and Finland have suffered 210 and 218 COVID 19 deaths while, as I said, Sweden has suffered 2,650 deaths. So, Sweden has seen over 10 times the
number of deaths as neighbors on west and neighbor on east.
Denmark population-5.9 million COVID 19 Deaths 234
Finland " 5.5 " " 218
Norway " 5.3 " " 210 Sweden " 10 " " 2,650
Whichever neighbor of Sweden you choose, 10 times as many people have died from COVID 19 as have died in Sweden while experimenting with herd immunity.
A little bit of Truth or simple recognition of what should have been acknowledged earlier. Govt isn't saving you from anything, and even if they were they are destroying far more.
No way to truly know because we have seen people who have underlying health problems who also get diagnosed with coronavirus and die have the cause listed as coronavirus. The problem is we don’t know if the death was the result of the virus the underlying health issue or combination of both my guess combination of both.
/-----/ "denial of the virus wont defeat it... "
No one is denying it, Stupid head. We talking about attributing the cause of death to COVID-19 even though it was not the actual cause of death. Died of Lung Cancer but also demonstrated symptoms of Covid-19. How many times does this have to be explained to you?
We have had 33000 deaths in just the past two weeks, 57000 or so in the past month....
What do you think the number will be of the deaths from this virus by the end of the year, based on what you know now of how the States are handling their reopenings, and how some states are not affected by it, while other states are swarming with it, and medical discoveries?
My guess is 100k by the end of July and another 100k by the end of the year, so probably about 200k in total by the end of the year....even if a vaccine is available by the end of the year and if there are drugs created that helps recovery time.
We have had 33000 deaths in just the past two weeks, 57000 or so in the past month....
What do you think the number will be of the deaths from this virus by the end of the year, based on what you know now of how the States are handling their reopenings, and how some states are not affected by it, while other states are swarming with it, and medical discoveries?
My guess is 100k by the end of July and another 100k by the end of the year, so probably about 200k in total by the end of the year....even if a vaccine is available by the end of the year and if there are drugs created that helps recovery time.
Hard to say, but if the vast majority of experts who say it will be back with a vengeance coinciding with flu season are correct - could go to 150-200k.
With U.S. deaths from Covid-19 passing 61,000 this week, the question is as difficult as ever: Are the projected death tolls large numbers, or small numbers?
www.statnews.com
United States
Coronavirus Cases:
1,112,771 Deaths:
64,931 Recovered:
158,029
We have had 33000 deaths in just the past two weeks, 57000 or so in the past month....
What do you think the number will be of the deaths from this virus by the end of the year, based on what you know now of how the States are handling their reopenings, and how some states are not affected by it, while other states are swarming with it, and medical discoveries?
My guess is 100k by the end of July and another 100k by the end of the year, so probably about 200k in total by the end of the year....even if a vaccine is available by the end of the year and if there are drugs created that helps recovery time.
We have had 33000 deaths in just the past two weeks, 57000 or so in the past month....
What do you think the number will be of the deaths from this virus by the end of the year, based on what you know now of how the States are handling their reopenings, and how some states are not affected by it, while other states are swarming with it, and medical discoveries?
My guess is 100k by the end of July and another 100k by the end of the year, so probably about 200k in total by the end of the year....even if a vaccine is available by the end of the year and if there are drugs created that helps recovery time.
We have had 33000 deaths in just the past two weeks, 57000 or so in the past month....
What do you think the number will be of the deaths from this virus by the end of the year, based on what you know now of how the States are handling their reopenings, and how some states are not affected by it, while other states are swarming with it, and medical discoveries?
My guess is 100k by the end of July and another 100k by the end of the year, so probably about 200k in total by the end of the year....even if a vaccine is available by the end of the year and if there are drugs created that helps recovery time.
I don't get this thinking at all. As much as there are sides that have been taken in this, it is "the dems" that are advocating to minimize the spread while "the repubs" are advocating for letting nature take it's course which would no doubt result in many more deaths.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
www.statista.com
www.statnews.com
