How big of a hit for German GDP with Grexit?

[william the wie]

Germany co-signed for most of Greece's accumulated debt and its banks have 100+ trillion dollars of derivatives needed to make that debt salable. This could be a major league problem for Germany and I figure that if I make a thread more people will also contribute information that I don't know so I will know better what to do about this coming problem.

 

[DarkFury]

Germany co-signed for most of Greece's accumulated debt and its banks have 100+ trillion dollars of derivatives needed to make that debt salable. This could be a major league problem for Germany and I figure that if I make a thread more people will also contribute information that I don't know so I will know better what to do about this coming problem.

Most people laugh when anybody suggests it's an issue BUT if Germany goes to war with Greece over the money it SPLITS NATO.
And that IS what Putin wants.

 

[defcon4]

Germany co-signed for most of Greece's accumulated debt and its banks have 100+ trillion dollars of derivatives needed to make that debt salable. This could be a major league problem for Germany and I figure that if I make a thread more people will also contribute information that I don't know so I will know better what to do about this coming problem.

Most people laugh when anybody suggests it's an issue BUT if Germany goes to war with Greece over the money it SPLITS NATO.
And that IS what Putin wants.

Cool guy.

 

[william the wie]

Nobody is real happy with the Deutschland Uber Alles rif on the French attempt at reviving the Franco-Russian alliance to create an Atlantic to the Pacific French Empire. That's why Hollande and Merkel had to sign off on Minsk 2.0. Obama has been told in must sign legislation that the members of the Black caucus are not real happy with his support of White Supremicists in Eastern Europe. The Baltic states having their Waffen SS vets parade in uniform while making speeches about their solidarity with Eastern Ukraine is also an irritant. So I think Germany would be highly unwise to threaten Greece.

 

[DarkFury]

Nobody is real happy with the Deutschland Uber Alles rif on the French attempt at reviving the Franco-Russian alliance to create an Atlantic to the Pacific French Empire. That's why Hollande and Merkel had to sign off on Minsk 2.0. Obama has been told in must sign legislation that the members of the Black caucus are not real happy with his support of White Supremicists in Eastern Europe. The Baltic states having their Waffen SS vets parade in uniform while making speeches about their solidarity with Eastern Ukraine is also an irritant. So I think Germany would be highly unwise to threaten Greece.

Putin has already signed a pipe line deal with Greece that will pay them. Greece may try and dodge the debt all together and re-start under the Ruble?

Spain would be the next big loser with Italy behind that. If the Euro falls and they have to go back to the dollar whose is going to buy the Euro?

There are three big banks in play here, the Russians the Chinese and America.

 

[william the wie]

Quite true and China's purchase of Greece's biggest port is a twofer from their point of view since keeps the US from shifting forces to WestPac or so they hope but I suspect knock on effects are incalculable.

 

[DarkFury]

Quite true and China's purchase of Greece's biggest port is a twofer from their point of view since keeps the US from shifting forces to WestPac or so they hope but I suspect knock on effects are incalculable.

I was unaware about the port deal but with that done the Chinese and the Russians have ALREADY divided up Greece leaving the scraps for Germany.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Nobody is real happy with the Deutschland Uber Alles rif on the French attempt at reviving the Franco-Russian alliance to create an Atlantic to the Pacific French Empire. That's why Hollande and Merkel had to sign off on Minsk 2.0. Obama has been told in must sign legislation that the members of the Black caucus are not real happy with his support of White Supremicists in Eastern Europe. The Baltic states having their Waffen SS vets parade in uniform while making speeches about their solidarity with Eastern Ukraine is also an irritant. So I think Germany would be highly unwise to threaten Greece.

You have got to be ******* kidding me if you believe that "Deutschland über alles" bullshit. That ended 70 years ago. Get a ******* grip on yourself.

Furthermore, Greece's economy is so small, it will not be felt much at all were Greece to exit the Eurozone, which is still not very likely.

Your dreams of wars and new alliances to split Europe is nothing more than weird wet-dreams.

Try again, this time with talent.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Germany co-signed for most of Greece's accumulated debt and its banks have 100+ trillion dollars of derivatives needed to make that debt salable. This could be a major league problem for Germany and I figure that if I make a thread more people will also contribute information that I don't know so I will know better what to do about this coming problem.

Germany co-signed for most of Greece's accumulated debt

How much of the 360B or so is German held or guaranteed?

its banks have 100+ trillion dollars of derivatives needed to make that debt salable.

Why would they need to make the debt salable?
Who is dunb enough to buy it?
Where did you get such a ridiculous number?

 

[william the wie]

Germany co-signed for most of Greece's accumulated debt and its banks have 100+ trillion dollars of derivatives needed to make that debt salable. This could be a major league problem for Germany and I figure that if I make a thread more people will also contribute information that I don't know so I will know better what to do about this coming problem.

Germany co-signed for most of Greece's accumulated debt

How much of the 360B or so is German held or guaranteed?

its banks have 100+ trillion dollars of derivatives needed to make that debt salable.

Why would they need to make the debt salable?
Who is dunb enough to buy it?
Where did you get such a ridiculous number?

Answered in reverse order for Ss & Gs

Check out the Asset list for Deutsche Bank
Well if you have a high yield fund or ETF the dumb-ass you are looking for is someone you know.
That's how banks make money and Deutsche bank in particular has a lot of fines to pay.
Well the last time Germany voted on guarantees the more than half number was used by both sides.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Germany co-signed for most of Greece's accumulated debt and its banks have 100+ trillion dollars of derivatives needed to make that debt salable. This could be a major league problem for Germany and I figure that if I make a thread more people will also contribute information that I don't know so I will know better what to do about this coming problem.

Germany co-signed for most of Greece's accumulated debt

How much of the 360B or so is German held or guaranteed?

its banks have 100+ trillion dollars of derivatives needed to make that debt salable.

Why would they need to make the debt salable?
Who is dumb enough to buy it?
Where did you get such a ridiculous number?

Answered in reverse order for Ss & Gs

Check out the Asset list for Deutsche Bank
Well if you have a high yield fund or ETF the dumb-ass you are looking for is someone you know.
That's how banks make money and Deutsche bank in particular has a lot of fines to pay.
Well the last time Germany voted on guarantees the more than half number was used by both sides.

Check out the Asset list for Deutsche Bank

What does the asset list for DB have to do with Greek debt that DB doesn't own?

Well if you have a high yield fund or ETF the dumb-ass you are looking for is someone you know.

After Greece screwed the private debt holders with a 50% haircut before the last bailout, how many private holders or private banks bought more Greek debt?

That's how banks make money

They didn't make any money when the Greeks screwed them last time.

 

[william the wie]

Germany co-signed for most of Greece's accumulated debt and its banks have 100+ trillion dollars of derivatives needed to make that debt salable. This could be a major league problem for Germany and I figure that if I make a thread more people will also contribute information that I don't know so I will know better what to do about this coming problem.

Germany co-signed for most of Greece's accumulated debt

How much of the 360B or so is German held or guaranteed?

its banks have 100+ trillion dollars of derivatives needed to make that debt salable.

Why would they need to make the debt salable?
Who is dumb enough to buy it?
Where did you get such a ridiculous number?

Answered in reverse order for Ss & Gs

Check out the Asset list for Deutsche Bank
Well if you have a high yield fund or ETF the dumb-ass you are looking for is someone you know.
That's how banks make money and Deutsche bank in particular has a lot of fines to pay.
Well the last time Germany voted on guarantees the more than half number was used by both sides.

Check out the Asset list for Deutsche Bank

What does the asset list for DB have to do with Greek debt that DB doesn't own?

Well if you have a high yield fund or ETF the dumb-ass you are looking for is someone you know.

After Greece screwed the private debt holders with a 50% haircut before the last bailout, how many private holders or private banks bought more Greek debt?

That's how banks make money

They didn't make any money when the Greeks screwed them last time.

Germany co-signed for most of Greece's accumulated debt and its banks have 100+ trillion dollars of derivatives needed to make that debt salable. This could be a major league problem for Germany and I figure that if I make a thread more people will also contribute information that I don't know so I will know better what to do about this coming problem.

Germany co-signed for most of Greece's accumulated debt

How much of the 360B or so is German held or guaranteed?

its banks have 100+ trillion dollars of derivatives needed to make that debt salable.

Why would they need to make the debt salable?
Who is dumb enough to buy it?
Where did you get such a ridiculous number?

Answered in reverse order for Ss & Gs

Check out the Asset list for Deutsche Bank
Well if you have a high yield fund or ETF the dumb-ass you are looking for is someone you know.
That's how banks make money and Deutsche bank in particular has a lot of fines to pay.
Well the last time Germany voted on guarantees the more than half number was used by both sides.

Check out the Asset list for Deutsche Bank

What does the asset list for DB have to do with Greek debt that DB doesn't own?

Both CDSs and currency swaps were required to pick up the juicy underwriting fees for selling that debt to high yield funds in the US and China.

Well if you have a high yield fund or ETF the dumb-ass you are looking for is someone you know.

After Greece screwed the private debt holders with a 50% haircut before the last bailout, how many private holders or private banks bought more Greek debt?

There is a reason yield whores have that name.

That's how banks make money

They didn't make any money when the Greeks screwed them last time.

Odds are the same is true this time but like the AGW cultists folks in the capital markets only with more data but data that is more accurate than the cultists forget that stats cannot prove but only disprove. 87, 00 and 08 together had a conjoint probability using stats of 0.954 E50+, which is about as good a disproof of both buy and hold and market efficiency as can be found yet the bankers at DB still believe, go figure.

 

[Toro]

Germany hasn't co-signed for Greece's debt.

Greece is 1.8% of the eurozone GDP.

Most of Greece's debt is held up quasi-sovereigns. Much of the rest is held by hedge funds. Little of it is now held by banks. The last three years have been all about moving Greece's debt off the balance sheets of the European banks on to the balance sheets of the sovereigns.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Both CDSs and currency swaps were required to pick up the juicy underwriting fees for selling that debt to high yield funds in the US and China.

High yield funds needed DB to underwrite purchases of Greek government debt? Why?

Why would DB need a currency swap to sell Euro denominated debt?
Or a CDS?
Do you have any backup for these claims, or are you just making it up?

 

[william the wie]

Germany hasn't co-signed for Greece's debt.

Greece is 1.8% of the eurozone GDP.

Most of Greece's debt is held up quasi-sovereigns. Much of the rest is held by hedge funds. Little of it is now held by banks. The last three years have been all about moving Greece's debt off the balance sheets of the European banks on to the balance sheets of the sovereigns.

Which makes its debts 4-6% if I'm not mistaken.

 

[william the wie]

Both CDSs and currency swaps were required to pick up the juicy underwriting fees for selling that debt to high yield funds in the US and China.

High yield funds needed DB to underwrite purchases of Greek government debt? Why?

Why would DB need a currency swap to sell Euro denominated debt?
Or a CDS?
Do you have any backup for these claims, or are you just making it up?

You haven't seen all of those ads for the "high yield zero duration" dollar denominated ETF? If so lucky man. I have no idea the name of the Chinese (Hong Kong I think) version all I know about that is the Chinese and Swiss police have an investigation going for two unlicensed companies that were purported counter-parties in the European (Greek) high yield market..

As mentioned earlier it was in the balance sheet DB reports. So I checked other sources and decided to use the lowest figure(s) I could find in a quick search. Zero hedge is currently reporting 54.7 T total net exposure and 75T by another method of calculation. That bit of joy led to a bond downgrade to BBB+ 6/9/15 which is actually lower than Lehman's was three months before it went belly up. Throw in counter party risk and the possibility, bordering on certainty, that the books got cleaned by putting all the debts possible off the books after the failure of the easy-peasy ECB stress test and the 100 T number I saw reported sounds conservative to me.

The really strange aspect of this situation is that estimates based on the balance sheet and guidance appear to be rising 13%/month. I'll ask Kwazi about the current party line when I check to see if he wants an intro to another bank. He posted his resume on linked in today and I don't think he would have done that as a VP analyst for DB unless even more bad news had broke.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Both CDSs and currency swaps were required to pick up the juicy underwriting fees for selling that debt to high yield funds in the US and China.

High yield funds needed DB to underwrite purchases of Greek government debt? Why?

Why would DB need a currency swap to sell Euro denominated debt?
Or a CDS?
Do you have any backup for these claims, or are you just making it up?

You haven't seen all of those ads for the "high yield zero duration" dollar denominated ETF? If so lucky man. I have no idea the name of the Chinese (Hong Kong I think) version all I know about that is the Chinese and Swiss police have an investigation going for two unlicensed companies that were purported counter-parties in the European (Greek) high yield market..

As mentioned earlier it was in the balance sheet DB reports. So I checked other sources and decided to use the lowest figure(s) I could find in a quick search. Zero hedge is currently reporting 54.7 T total net exposure and 75T by another method of calculation. That bit of joy led to a bond downgrade to BBB+ 6/9/15 which is actually lower than Lehman's was three months before it went belly up. Throw in counter party risk and the possibility, bordering on certainty, that the books got cleaned by putting all the debts possible off the books after the failure of the easy-peasy ECB stress test and the 100 T number I saw reported sounds conservative to me.

The really strange aspect of this situation is that estimates based on the balance sheet and guidance appear to be rising 13%/month. I'll ask Kwazi about the current party line when I check to see if he wants an intro to another bank. He posted his resume on linked in today and I don't think he would have done that as a VP analyst for DB unless even more bad news had broke.

the Chinese and Swiss police have an investigation going for two unlicensed companies that were purported counter-parties in the European (Greek) high yield market..
That's awful. What's it have to do with DB?

Zero hedge is currently reporting 54.7 T total net exposure and 75T by another method of calculation.

That's awful. Why is it necessary for them to sell Greek debt?

 

[william the wie]

Derivatives are used almost solely to gussy up fixed Income assets. Currency swaps are used in some ETFs but except for futures and options that banks normally just broker derivatives are sold to facilitate the sale of loans and since the ECB is buying up euro denominated debts from all holders of non-Greek debt there's not much else to write derivatives on in the EZ.

As to the fraud case I am not claiming that DB was involved. I am saying that the fraudsters had to make believable claims that Chinese investors would buy into. There is a very short list of such claims and they involve PIGS debt instruments, mostly Greek, and/or Deutsche Bank derivatives exposure.

However the main thing I am claiming is that the people on the spot are betting heavily on Germany exploding with Deutsche Bank as ground zero.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Derivatives are used almost solely to gussy up fixed Income assets. Currency swaps are used in some ETFs but except for futures and options that banks normally just broker derivatives are sold to facilitate the sale of loans and since the ECB is buying up euro denominated debts from all holders of non-Greek debt there's not much else to write derivatives on in the EZ.

As to the fraud case I am not claiming that DB was involved. I am saying that the fraudsters had to make believable claims that Chinese investors would buy into. There is a very short list of such claims and they involve PIGS debt instruments, mostly Greek, and/or Deutsche Bank derivatives exposure.

However the main thing I am claiming is that the people on the spot are betting heavily on Germany exploding with Deutsche Bank as ground zero.

However the main thing I am claiming is that the people on the spot are betting heavily on Germany exploding with Deutsche Bank as ground zero.

Next time, say that, instead of making up a bunch of stuff about derivatives.

Greece Seeks Third Debt Restructuring Who s on the Hook - Bloomberg Business

If you really think Germany is going to implode or explode because the Greek deadbeats officially default, buy some puts.

 

[william the wie]

You the one that ignored all other references. My goal always is to find positive carry. Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers did not and under contributed respectively to the 1998 Long Term Capital Management bail out because they were effectively zombie banks then. Deutsche Bank was declared a Zombie bank earlier this year and therefore Germany is too. So unless you can contribute to figuring out a 10 year positive carry I will stop replying to your posts.