Housing market about to crash larger than 2008. Lennar Homes is a leading indicator

[DarthTrader]

The well managed and profitable Lennar homes is a stock that only goes up - except when it doesn't. And when it doesn't, every time, it has preceeded a selloff of housing prices. The mechanics of this is because smart money are aware of the structural deficiencies of housing and short the hell out of anything housing related before the housing market itself starts to tank.

Big short is a funny movie about some of those batshjt crazy shorts.

Lennar homes has sold off harder than it did in 2006 (1 year before the housing market began to show weakness).

 

[Dragonlady]

The well managed and profitable Lennar homes is a stock that only goes up - except when it doesn't. And when it doesn't, every time, it has preceeded a selloff of housing prices. The mechanics of this is because smart money are aware of the structural deficiencies of housing and short the hell out of anything housing related before the housing market itself starts to tank.

Big short is a funny movie about some of those batshjt crazy shorts.

Lennar homes has sold off harder than it did in 2006 (1 year before the housing market began to show weakness).

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Corporate ownership and speculation on residential housing is one of the causes of the housing bubbles. If this is your "housing bubble" indicator, your entire housing market is now in the hands of large corporate interests which is never good for individuals and families.

 

[jwoodie]

Is the drop in this stock's price a true harbinger of a housing collapse or more a reflection of the stock market's recent decline?

 

[DarthTrader]

Corporate ownership and speculation on residential housing is one of the causes of the housing bubbles. If this is your "housing bubble" indicator, your entire housing market is now in the hands of large corporate interests which is never good for individuals and families.

I agree with you. But the problem is their mistakes drag us all down. I think what they have done (not Lennar they are just a home builder) is to have rolled their equity too aggressively into purchasing homes for rent. They expect a certain amount of cash flow but will very quickly find they are deep underwater.

 

[DarthTrader]

Is the drop in this stock's price a true harbinger of a housing collapse or more a reflection of the stock market's recent decline?

It's a harbinger. Lennar dropped in 2006 when the market was still going to the moon.

It just happens to coincide with a collapsing equity bubble this time around. The problem in the housing market is that it is also a bubble driven by speculation and easy money and very very low interest rates.

 

[kyzr]

I agree with you. But the problem is their mistakes drag us all down. I think what they have done (not Lennar they are just a home builder) is to have rolled their equity too aggressively into purchasing homes for rent. They expect a certain amount of cash flow but will very quickly find they are deep underwater.

Houses are moving fast. For sale about half the time as average.
There is no housing bubble.

 

[kyzr]

It's a harbinger. Lennar dropped in 2006 when the market was still going to the moon.
It just happens to coincide with a collapsing equity bubble this time around. The problem in the housing market is that it is also a bubble driven by speculation and easy money and very very low interest rates.

Xiden's stupid energy policy and Fau-Chi's "gain-of-function" pandemic caused the economic issues. As interest rates normalize money gets back to normal. Bitcoin will not do well. Housing will be fine.

 

[KissMy]

There is not a sub-prime lending bubble in housing. Just the fed dumping MBS's & rising interest rates to halt inflation. This slows appetites' for home loans & halts housing inflation.