Well after I picked myself off the floor, I read the rest of your post. So, the military actually acted for the most part, within the orders of the courts/Congress. They overstepped at getting him out of country, though that seems they were acting more in his favor than not. No? Meaning, keeping him out of jail, though denying the trial.
I'm not sure what the motivation for taking him out of the country was. I read that it was a "last minute" decision but no word on who made that decision. The detainment order was only for detaining him in his home, as I undersatnd. A kind of house arrest, I guess. But the decision to take him out of the country could have been made for any number of reasons. Maybe they just figured it was a short cut to avoid a trial and what that would entail. Who knows. At any rate, Zelaya didn't want to go and seemed ready to defend his actions, although he must be one self assured SOB to think there was any defense when the congress, courts and military are lined up against you.
All in all, Zelaya was the cause of the whole thing. Regardless, world leaders aren't going to support the move to use the military to depose him and send him into exile. It was a really bad move in an otherwise well orchestrated and legal plan to remove him from office. Too bad they screwed it up.
The bulk of the argument here has been about what Obama has done, which is next to nothing. He made a couple statements about it, emphasized the legal aspects of the removal and that democracy has to be held above the rest of this mess. Zelaya is the elected President and an illegal removal of him from the country, without a trial is not going to garner much support from other leaders around the world. Never will, no matter where it happens.
What has not happened is any kind of demands from Obama. I have not seen that he has even spoken directly to the new leaders in Honduras, much less insist that they do something. He registered his opinion with the media, the OAS and the UN. To try and color this as if Obama has taken any kind of lead, or made any kind of demands is obviously poppy cock. The Costa Ricans are mediating, the Hondurans are moving forward with making sure Zelaya faces charges, should he return, and the US, the Whitehouse and Obama have been fairly quiet about the whole thing. I think Obama played it well, not giving Chavez or Castro any ammo to claim that the US was behind the coup while also directing his response to the OAS, just as he promised he would in Central American matters.
As far as what will happen? I think Zelaya will not return to Honduras anytime soon. Perhaps sometime in the future, a new president down there will pardon him and allow him to come home. But he will never be president of Honduras. He will probably live in exile somewhere in Central America and bark at anyone who will listen for the next ten years. Honduras will have their scheduled elections and we will be able to recognize a democratic elected president and emerge none the worse for wear from the whole incident precisely because Obama has not made public investment in demands from Honduras.