Hillary polling: 1st week after her announcement

[Mertex]

It has now been 9 days since Hillary Clinton declared her candidacy and some polling results have come in. Not all of them were actually taken in the time-frame after her candidacy was declared, but as of this week, that will definitely be the case.

National:​

Rasmussen Polling, released 14.04.2015
1000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0, polled on 09.04 and 12.04.2015
So, the second day of this poll was on the day that Hillary announced, but not after.



Clinton 47 / Paul 37, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 47 / Cruz 37, margin = Clinton +10


So, based on data from before Clinton's announcement, she leads both declared Republicans by +10. One notes that Rasmussen ALWAYS finds a way to keep a Democrat under 50% as long as possible. Considering that Rasmussen has a proven mathematical bias of +4 to the Right, both of these margins could easily be more like +14, more in line with most all other national polling.


CNN/ORC, released 20.04.2015
1,018 A, MoE = +/-3.0, polled from 16.04 to 19.04, all after Hillary and Rubio's announcements.
The values in (parentheses) are from the previous CNN/ORC poll for that particular matchup.

Clinton 55 (55) / Rubio 41 (42), margin = Clinton +14 (+13)
Clinton 56 (55) / Bush, J 39 (40), margin = Clinton +17 (+15)
Clinton 58 (54) / Paul 39 (43), margin = Clinton +19 (+11)
Clinton 58 (55) / Christie 39 (40), margin = Clinton +19 (+15)
Clinton 58 (55) / Huckabee 37 (41), margin = Clinton +21 (+14)
Clinton 59 (55) / Walker 37 (40), margin = Clinton +22 (+15)
Clinton 60 (60) / Cruz 36 (35), margin = Clinton +24 (+25)
Clinton 60 (56) / Carson 36 (40), margin = Clinton +24 (+16)

In the CNN/ORC poll, Hillary Clinton is well above the 50 mark in all 8 matchups and beats her prospective Republican opponents by between a landslide +14 and a blowout +24. There have now been 67 national polls, Hillary vs. specific GOP challengers, making for 241 matchups to-date, of which Hillary has decisively won 234 (97.10%). This poll, with the matchups against Cruz and Carson, make for the third time that Hillary has hit the 60% mark in a national poll. I can guarantee you that since 1984, no candidate has hit the 60 mark in any national polling. If you go to the CNN link, you will see how well Hillary is doing in the female vote: +27 over Rubio / +32 over Bush, J and Carson / +34 over Christie / +35 over Walker and Cruz / +36 over Paul / +39 over Huckabee. Just to remind: Obama won the female vote in 2012 by +11. Hillary is at double to triple that margin.

Also in the CNN/ORC poll:

Democratic nomination:

Hillary 69 / Biden 11 / Sanders 5 / Someone else 5 / Webb 3 / Chafee 1 / O'Malley 1, margin = Hillary +58


Republican nomination:

Bush, J 17 / Walker 12 / Paul 11 / Rubio 11 / Huckabee 9 / Cruz 7 / Someone else 5 / Carson 4 / Christie 3 / Santorum 3 / Fiorina 2 / Graham 2 / Jindal 2 / Kasich 2, margin = Bush, J +5


So, one week after the Clinton rollout, apparently, her method helped her among Democrats: she has gone from 62% to 69% and is absolutely the prohibitive front-runner for the DEM nomination.

The GOP field looks just as muddy as it has looked the entire time, which is not unusual for the opposition party going into an open cycle. However, none of these candidates are doing as well as Mitt Romney was doing at this point of time in 2011: he was hanging at right around 23% in most polling.

Wisconsin:​

Marquette University Poll, released 16.04.2015
803 RV, MoE = +/-3.5, the interviews were conducted from 07.04 to 10.04, BEFORE Hillary's announcement. The values in (parentheses) are from the previous Marquette poll for that particular matchup.



Clinton 49 / Paul 41, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 49 (50) / Bush, J 38 (39), margin = Clinton +11 (+10)
Clinton 50 / Rubio 38, margin = Clinton +12
Clinton 52 (53.3) / Walker 40 (40.6), margin = Clinton +12 (+12.7)
Clinton 52 (55.3) / Cruz 36 (33.4), margin = Clinton +16 (+21.9)

The Marquette University poll shows Clinton leading five prospective GOP opponents by between +8 and +16. Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by +14 and in 2012 by +7, so even Hillary's leanest value is larger than Obama's actual win from 2012. That being said, the margin against Cruz has shrunken some. With values like that, if they hold, then Wisconsin is nowhere near being a battleground state in 2016.

A PPP (D) poll from Wisconsin in March showed leaner margins than this, so it will be interesting to see what both their next poll and Marquette's next poll says.

Marquette was one of the three best pollsters in the final polling of Wisconsin in 2012. It predicted Obama +8, he won by +7, so Marquette was off to the Left by 1 point. Rasmussen, on the other hand, completely missed the call, called a tie, and was therefore off by 7 points to the Right.

To-date, there have now been 9 polls of the Badger state, with 40 individual matchups, of which Hillary has won 37, the GOP has won 2 and there has been 1 mathematical tie.

Florida:​

Mason-Dixon (R) poll, released 20.04.2015
625 RV, MoE = +/-4.5, the interviews were held from 14.04 to 18.04.2015

Rubio 49 / Clinton 43, margin = Rubio +6
Bush, J 47 / Clinton 43, margin = Bush, J +4


This is the first Mason-Dixon of this cycle for Florida, so there is no older data with which to compare.

In 2012, the final Mason-Dixon poll of Florida, released 02.11.2012, predicted Romney +6 (Romney 51 / Obama 45). In reality, Obama won by 1, so Mason-Dixon was off by 7 full points to the Right in the Orange-Juice state and had the highest mathematical bias of any of the end pollster for that state in that year. So, Mason-Dixon's reputation is already severely damaged. However, in a breach with their tradition, M/D did release some internals with this poll. And in doing so, M-D shows Hillary just barely winning the female vote in Florida, by +4 over Bush and by +8 over Rubio, well under the national margins in the female vote. I consider this to be highly, highly unlikely, especially considering that Florida is a microcosm for the nation in many ways.

In a national atmosphere where Hillary is leading ALL GOP comers by landslide margins, it is unlikely that she is losing in Florida. There have now been 23 polls of Florida and 89 specific-name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has won 83.

Either way, it will be interesting to see what the NEXT Mason-Dixon poll says.

So, those were the numbers for the first week, post-Hillary announcement.

Cool......Hillary for some reason is the only announced Democrat candidate......so essentially she's running against a split vote between 4 Republicans.
What an accomplishment.

I think it's unseemly that the only Democrat being allowed to run is a highly flawed candidate with no real accomplishments, who never earned a cent that she made in her life, plenty of disastrous decisions because she was taking bribes from foreign interests while in office, and currently under indictment for racketeering. The only candidate the Dems can offer is an ugly, fat, closeted Lesbian, who needs two phones in order to have two email addresses, who is guilty of almost as many felonies as Obama.

You guys must be so proud. Obviously winning is more important to you than getting the right person for the job....preventing it from becoming disastrous like the Obama Administration. And what's worse....you must feel that Americans are this damn stupid. Judging from the lack of excitement from actual voters at all of her staged events shows she's not as popular as you claim.

Wahhhhhhh, somebody call a wambulance, Mudwhistle is having a butt hurt. Like any of the conservative clowns are the right person for the job.... They all want to put the screws to the middle-class, Mud must be one of the 1%, or he's delusional.

Shut up bitch.

Hahaha.....make me asshole.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Honestly, if the republicans take florida and hold all the states that are a lock....Well, they'll only need Virginia and North Carolina to bring it home.

Only, the red wall is a lot lower than the blue wall.

There is no guarantee that the GOP can even win North Carolina. They are ten point or more behind Hillary in both Ohio and Virginia. If those numbers hold, then those two states will not even be battlegrounds in 2016.

Meanwhile, it is a lean single digit race in: GA, LA, AR, KS (yes, KS), AZ, surely in NE-02. Hillary can open more battlegrounds than the GOP can close.

The blue wall STARTS at 259 EV right now, 21 away from 270.

 

[mudwhistle]

Stats...now THAT is interesting.

Trending not too well here.....as in on the down.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/13/u...race-is-far-from-won.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=0

Can't copy the graph...NYT encrypted?? lol

I suspect the polls will tighten in the next year or so.

Greg

Greg, I full expect that they will tighten, only never before in my lifetime have wee seen a DEM start in such a commanding position. Bill Clinton NEVER enjoyed these kind of national numbers, ever. Neither did Obama. You have to go back to LBJ to find a Democrat doing this well, and above all else, maintaining it for this long.

Yes....and when Hillary quiffs it smells like Rosemary.

It's amazing the kind of numbers you can get when you buy your way into an election....

 

[Statistikhengst]

Man oh man, she's HOSING us already. just awful. This government just walk all over US

SNIP:
DailyCaller



Politics

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton laughs during a light-hearted moment as she and Annette Lantos Tillemann-Dick attend the 2013 Tom Lantos Award ceremony on Capitol Hill in Washington, Dec. 6, 2013. (REUTERS/Mike Theiler)
FEC’s Women In Politics Forum Is Packed With Pro-Hillary Liberals

Chuck Ross
Reporter


10:11 PM 04/20/2015


As expected, a public forum being organized by the Democratic chair of the Federal Election Commission to discuss women in politics will host a slew of liberal Democratic panelists with no Republican in sight.

Last week, FEC chair Ann Ravel announced the May 12 forum which will be aimed at addressing the dearth of women in public office.

But critics slammed the announcement, arguing that the FEC’s mission is to regulate campaign spending, not get to the root of who chooses to run for office.

The event announcement was also seen as playing favorites with its implicit preference for female candidates versus male candidates. Adding to that concern was that Ravel’s announcement came during the same week that Hillary Clinton announced her candidacy for president.

While Ravel, who came under scrutiny last year after she floated a proposal to regulate political speech on the internet, denies that any of the 10 forum panelists were chosen because of their ideology, those who have publicly stated their political preferences have almost exclusively supported Democrats and been highly critical of Republicans.

(RELATED: Democratic FEC Chair Accused Of Playing Favorites With Forum Promoting Women In Politics)

ALL of it here

FEC s Women In Politics Forum Is Packed With Liberals The Daily Caller

This article has absolutely nothing to do with the OP. You do realize this, troll?

 

[mudwhistle]

It has now been 9 days since Hillary Clinton declared her candidacy and some polling results have come in. Not all of them were actually taken in the time-frame after her candidacy was declared, but as of this week, that will definitely be the case.

National:​

Rasmussen Polling, released 14.04.2015
1000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0, polled on 09.04 and 12.04.2015
So, the second day of this poll was on the day that Hillary announced, but not after.



Clinton 47 / Paul 37, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 47 / Cruz 37, margin = Clinton +10


So, based on data from before Clinton's announcement, she leads both declared Republicans by +10. One notes that Rasmussen ALWAYS finds a way to keep a Democrat under 50% as long as possible. Considering that Rasmussen has a proven mathematical bias of +4 to the Right, both of these margins could easily be more like +14, more in line with most all other national polling.


CNN/ORC, released 20.04.2015
1,018 A, MoE = +/-3.0, polled from 16.04 to 19.04, all after Hillary and Rubio's announcements.
The values in (parentheses) are from the previous CNN/ORC poll for that particular matchup.

Clinton 55 (55) / Rubio 41 (42), margin = Clinton +14 (+13)
Clinton 56 (55) / Bush, J 39 (40), margin = Clinton +17 (+15)
Clinton 58 (54) / Paul 39 (43), margin = Clinton +19 (+11)
Clinton 58 (55) / Christie 39 (40), margin = Clinton +19 (+15)
Clinton 58 (55) / Huckabee 37 (41), margin = Clinton +21 (+14)
Clinton 59 (55) / Walker 37 (40), margin = Clinton +22 (+15)
Clinton 60 (60) / Cruz 36 (35), margin = Clinton +24 (+25)
Clinton 60 (56) / Carson 36 (40), margin = Clinton +24 (+16)

In the CNN/ORC poll, Hillary Clinton is well above the 50 mark in all 8 matchups and beats her prospective Republican opponents by between a landslide +14 and a blowout +24. There have now been 67 national polls, Hillary vs. specific GOP challengers, making for 241 matchups to-date, of which Hillary has decisively won 234 (97.10%). This poll, with the matchups against Cruz and Carson, make for the third time that Hillary has hit the 60% mark in a national poll. I can guarantee you that since 1984, no candidate has hit the 60 mark in any national polling. If you go to the CNN link, you will see how well Hillary is doing in the female vote: +27 over Rubio / +32 over Bush, J and Carson / +34 over Christie / +35 over Walker and Cruz / +36 over Paul / +39 over Huckabee. Just to remind: Obama won the female vote in 2012 by +11. Hillary is at double to triple that margin.

Also in the CNN/ORC poll:

Democratic nomination:

Hillary 69 / Biden 11 / Sanders 5 / Someone else 5 / Webb 3 / Chafee 1 / O'Malley 1, margin = Hillary +58


Republican nomination:

Bush, J 17 / Walker 12 / Paul 11 / Rubio 11 / Huckabee 9 / Cruz 7 / Someone else 5 / Carson 4 / Christie 3 / Santorum 3 / Fiorina 2 / Graham 2 / Jindal 2 / Kasich 2, margin = Bush, J +5


So, one week after the Clinton rollout, apparently, her method helped her among Democrats: she has gone from 62% to 69% and is absolutely the prohibitive front-runner for the DEM nomination.

The GOP field looks just as muddy as it has looked the entire time, which is not unusual for the opposition party going into an open cycle. However, none of these candidates are doing as well as Mitt Romney was doing at this point of time in 2011: he was hanging at right around 23% in most polling.

Wisconsin:​

Marquette University Poll, released 16.04.2015
803 RV, MoE = +/-3.5, the interviews were conducted from 07.04 to 10.04, BEFORE Hillary's announcement. The values in (parentheses) are from the previous Marquette poll for that particular matchup.



Clinton 49 / Paul 41, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 49 (50) / Bush, J 38 (39), margin = Clinton +11 (+10)
Clinton 50 / Rubio 38, margin = Clinton +12
Clinton 52 (53.3) / Walker 40 (40.6), margin = Clinton +12 (+12.7)
Clinton 52 (55.3) / Cruz 36 (33.4), margin = Clinton +16 (+21.9)

The Marquette University poll shows Clinton leading five prospective GOP opponents by between +8 and +16. Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by +14 and in 2012 by +7, so even Hillary's leanest value is larger than Obama's actual win from 2012. That being said, the margin against Cruz has shrunken some. With values like that, if they hold, then Wisconsin is nowhere near being a battleground state in 2016.

A PPP (D) poll from Wisconsin in March showed leaner margins than this, so it will be interesting to see what both their next poll and Marquette's next poll says.

Marquette was one of the three best pollsters in the final polling of Wisconsin in 2012. It predicted Obama +8, he won by +7, so Marquette was off to the Left by 1 point. Rasmussen, on the other hand, completely missed the call, called a tie, and was therefore off by 7 points to the Right.

To-date, there have now been 9 polls of the Badger state, with 40 individual matchups, of which Hillary has won 37, the GOP has won 2 and there has been 1 mathematical tie.

Florida:​

Mason-Dixon (R) poll, released 20.04.2015
625 RV, MoE = +/-4.5, the interviews were held from 14.04 to 18.04.2015

Rubio 49 / Clinton 43, margin = Rubio +6
Bush, J 47 / Clinton 43, margin = Bush, J +4


This is the first Mason-Dixon of this cycle for Florida, so there is no older data with which to compare.

In 2012, the final Mason-Dixon poll of Florida, released 02.11.2012, predicted Romney +6 (Romney 51 / Obama 45). In reality, Obama won by 1, so Mason-Dixon was off by 7 full points to the Right in the Orange-Juice state and had the highest mathematical bias of any of the end pollster for that state in that year. So, Mason-Dixon's reputation is already severely damaged. However, in a breach with their tradition, M/D did release some internals with this poll. And in doing so, M-D shows Hillary just barely winning the female vote in Florida, by +4 over Bush and by +8 over Rubio, well under the national margins in the female vote. I consider this to be highly, highly unlikely, especially considering that Florida is a microcosm for the nation in many ways.

In a national atmosphere where Hillary is leading ALL GOP comers by landslide margins, it is unlikely that she is losing in Florida. There have now been 23 polls of Florida and 89 specific-name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has won 83.

Either way, it will be interesting to see what the NEXT Mason-Dixon poll says.

So, those were the numbers for the first week, post-Hillary announcement.

Cool......Hillary for some reason is the only announced Democrat candidate......so essentially she's running against a split vote between 4 Republicans.
What an accomplishment.

I think it's unseemly that the only Democrat being allowed to run is a highly flawed candidate with no real accomplishments, who never earned a cent that she made in her life, plenty of disastrous decisions because she was taking bribes from foreign interests while in office, and currently under indictment for racketeering. The only candidate the Dems can offer is an ugly, fat, closeted Lesbian, who needs two phones in order to have two email addresses, who is guilty of almost as many felonies as Obama.

You guys must be so proud. Obviously winning is more important to you than getting the right person for the job....preventing it from becoming disastrous like the Obama Administration. And what's worse....you must feel that Americans are this damn stupid. Judging from the lack of excitement from actual voters at all of her staged events shows she's not as popular as you claim.

Wahhhhhhh, somebody call a wambulance, Mudwhistle is having a butt hurt. Like any of the conservative clowns are the right person for the job.... They all want to put the screws to the middle-class, Mud must be one of the 1%, or he's delusional.

Shut up bitch.

Hahaha.....make me asshole.

Okay....you're an asshole.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Stats...now THAT is interesting.

Trending not too well here.....as in on the down.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/13/u...race-is-far-from-won.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=0

Can't copy the graph...NYT encrypted?? lol

I suspect the polls will tighten in the next year or so.

Greg

Greg, I full expect that they will tighten, only never before in my lifetime have wee seen a DEM start in such a commanding position. Bill Clinton NEVER enjoyed these kind of national numbers, ever. Neither did Obama. You have to go back to LBJ to find a Democrat doing this well, and above all else, maintaining it for this long.

Yes....and when Hillary quiffs it smells like Rosemary.

It's amazing the kind of numbers you can get when you buy your way into an election....

No. The data is the data is the data.

I was just as honest about Bush being ahead in 2004 - all the way.

Stop bitching, reach down, feel your balls, realize that you are a grown-up man, and act like one.

If the numbers show Hillary tanking, I will report them just as energetically as I always have.

Have a nice day.

 

[Mertex]

It has now been 9 days since Hillary Clinton declared her candidacy and some polling results have come in. Not all of them were actually taken in the time-frame after her candidacy was declared, but as of this week, that will definitely be the case.

National:​

Rasmussen Polling, released 14.04.2015
1000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0, polled on 09.04 and 12.04.2015
So, the second day of this poll was on the day that Hillary announced, but not after.



Clinton 47 / Paul 37, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 47 / Cruz 37, margin = Clinton +10


So, based on data from before Clinton's announcement, she leads both declared Republicans by +10. One notes that Rasmussen ALWAYS finds a way to keep a Democrat under 50% as long as possible. Considering that Rasmussen has a proven mathematical bias of +4 to the Right, both of these margins could easily be more like +14, more in line with most all other national polling.


CNN/ORC, released 20.04.2015
1,018 A, MoE = +/-3.0, polled from 16.04 to 19.04, all after Hillary and Rubio's announcements.
The values in (parentheses) are from the previous CNN/ORC poll for that particular matchup.

Clinton 55 (55) / Rubio 41 (42), margin = Clinton +14 (+13)
Clinton 56 (55) / Bush, J 39 (40), margin = Clinton +17 (+15)
Clinton 58 (54) / Paul 39 (43), margin = Clinton +19 (+11)
Clinton 58 (55) / Christie 39 (40), margin = Clinton +19 (+15)
Clinton 58 (55) / Huckabee 37 (41), margin = Clinton +21 (+14)
Clinton 59 (55) / Walker 37 (40), margin = Clinton +22 (+15)
Clinton 60 (60) / Cruz 36 (35), margin = Clinton +24 (+25)
Clinton 60 (56) / Carson 36 (40), margin = Clinton +24 (+16)

In the CNN/ORC poll, Hillary Clinton is well above the 50 mark in all 8 matchups and beats her prospective Republican opponents by between a landslide +14 and a blowout +24. There have now been 67 national polls, Hillary vs. specific GOP challengers, making for 241 matchups to-date, of which Hillary has decisively won 234 (97.10%). This poll, with the matchups against Cruz and Carson, make for the third time that Hillary has hit the 60% mark in a national poll. I can guarantee you that since 1984, no candidate has hit the 60 mark in any national polling. If you go to the CNN link, you will see how well Hillary is doing in the female vote: +27 over Rubio / +32 over Bush, J and Carson / +34 over Christie / +35 over Walker and Cruz / +36 over Paul / +39 over Huckabee. Just to remind: Obama won the female vote in 2012 by +11. Hillary is at double to triple that margin.

Also in the CNN/ORC poll:

Democratic nomination:

Hillary 69 / Biden 11 / Sanders 5 / Someone else 5 / Webb 3 / Chafee 1 / O'Malley 1, margin = Hillary +58


Republican nomination:

Bush, J 17 / Walker 12 / Paul 11 / Rubio 11 / Huckabee 9 / Cruz 7 / Someone else 5 / Carson 4 / Christie 3 / Santorum 3 / Fiorina 2 / Graham 2 / Jindal 2 / Kasich 2, margin = Bush, J +5


So, one week after the Clinton rollout, apparently, her method helped her among Democrats: she has gone from 62% to 69% and is absolutely the prohibitive front-runner for the DEM nomination.

The GOP field looks just as muddy as it has looked the entire time, which is not unusual for the opposition party going into an open cycle. However, none of these candidates are doing as well as Mitt Romney was doing at this point of time in 2011: he was hanging at right around 23% in most polling.

Wisconsin:​

Marquette University Poll, released 16.04.2015
803 RV, MoE = +/-3.5, the interviews were conducted from 07.04 to 10.04, BEFORE Hillary's announcement. The values in (parentheses) are from the previous Marquette poll for that particular matchup.



Clinton 49 / Paul 41, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 49 (50) / Bush, J 38 (39), margin = Clinton +11 (+10)
Clinton 50 / Rubio 38, margin = Clinton +12
Clinton 52 (53.3) / Walker 40 (40.6), margin = Clinton +12 (+12.7)
Clinton 52 (55.3) / Cruz 36 (33.4), margin = Clinton +16 (+21.9)

The Marquette University poll shows Clinton leading five prospective GOP opponents by between +8 and +16. Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by +14 and in 2012 by +7, so even Hillary's leanest value is larger than Obama's actual win from 2012. That being said, the margin against Cruz has shrunken some. With values like that, if they hold, then Wisconsin is nowhere near being a battleground state in 2016.

A PPP (D) poll from Wisconsin in March showed leaner margins than this, so it will be interesting to see what both their next poll and Marquette's next poll says.

Marquette was one of the three best pollsters in the final polling of Wisconsin in 2012. It predicted Obama +8, he won by +7, so Marquette was off to the Left by 1 point. Rasmussen, on the other hand, completely missed the call, called a tie, and was therefore off by 7 points to the Right.

To-date, there have now been 9 polls of the Badger state, with 40 individual matchups, of which Hillary has won 37, the GOP has won 2 and there has been 1 mathematical tie.

Florida:​

Mason-Dixon (R) poll, released 20.04.2015
625 RV, MoE = +/-4.5, the interviews were held from 14.04 to 18.04.2015

Rubio 49 / Clinton 43, margin = Rubio +6
Bush, J 47 / Clinton 43, margin = Bush, J +4


This is the first Mason-Dixon of this cycle for Florida, so there is no older data with which to compare.

In 2012, the final Mason-Dixon poll of Florida, released 02.11.2012, predicted Romney +6 (Romney 51 / Obama 45). In reality, Obama won by 1, so Mason-Dixon was off by 7 full points to the Right in the Orange-Juice state and had the highest mathematical bias of any of the end pollster for that state in that year. So, Mason-Dixon's reputation is already severely damaged. However, in a breach with their tradition, M/D did release some internals with this poll. And in doing so, M-D shows Hillary just barely winning the female vote in Florida, by +4 over Bush and by +8 over Rubio, well under the national margins in the female vote. I consider this to be highly, highly unlikely, especially considering that Florida is a microcosm for the nation in many ways.

In a national atmosphere where Hillary is leading ALL GOP comers by landslide margins, it is unlikely that she is losing in Florida. There have now been 23 polls of Florida and 89 specific-name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has won 83.

Either way, it will be interesting to see what the NEXT Mason-Dixon poll says.

So, those were the numbers for the first week, post-Hillary announcement.

Cool......Hillary for some reason is the only announced Democrat candidate......so essentially she's running against a split vote between 4 Republicans.
What an accomplishment.

I think it's unseemly that the only Democrat being allowed to run is a highly flawed candidate with no real accomplishments, who never earned a cent that she made in her life, plenty of disastrous decisions because she was taking bribes from foreign interests while in office, and currently under indictment for racketeering. The only candidate the Dems can offer is an ugly, fat, closeted Lesbian, who needs two phones in order to have two email addresses, who is guilty of almost as many felonies as Obama.

You guys must be so proud. Obviously winning is more important to you than getting the right person for the job....preventing it from becoming disastrous like the Obama Administration. And what's worse....you must feel that Americans are this damn stupid. Judging from the lack of excitement from actual voters at all of her staged events shows she's not as popular as you claim.

Wahhhhhhh, somebody call a wambulance, Mudwhistle is having a butt hurt. Like any of the conservative clowns are the right person for the job.... They all want to put the screws to the middle-class, Mud must be one of the 1%, or he's delusional.

Shut up bitch.

Hahaha.....make me asshole.

Okay....you're an asshole.

Put a bandage on your butt hurt and shut up already.....whiner.

 

[Statistikhengst]

It has now been 9 days since Hillary Clinton declared her candidacy and some polling results have come in. Not all of them were actually taken in the time-frame after her candidacy was declared, but as of this week, that will definitely be the case.

National:​

Rasmussen Polling, released 14.04.2015
1000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0, polled on 09.04 and 12.04.2015
So, the second day of this poll was on the day that Hillary announced, but not after.



Clinton 47 / Paul 37, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 47 / Cruz 37, margin = Clinton +10


So, based on data from before Clinton's announcement, she leads both declared Republicans by +10. One notes that Rasmussen ALWAYS finds a way to keep a Democrat under 50% as long as possible. Considering that Rasmussen has a proven mathematical bias of +4 to the Right, both of these margins could easily be more like +14, more in line with most all other national polling.


CNN/ORC, released 20.04.2015
1,018 A, MoE = +/-3.0, polled from 16.04 to 19.04, all after Hillary and Rubio's announcements.
The values in (parentheses) are from the previous CNN/ORC poll for that particular matchup.

Clinton 55 (55) / Rubio 41 (42), margin = Clinton +14 (+13)
Clinton 56 (55) / Bush, J 39 (40), margin = Clinton +17 (+15)
Clinton 58 (54) / Paul 39 (43), margin = Clinton +19 (+11)
Clinton 58 (55) / Christie 39 (40), margin = Clinton +19 (+15)
Clinton 58 (55) / Huckabee 37 (41), margin = Clinton +21 (+14)
Clinton 59 (55) / Walker 37 (40), margin = Clinton +22 (+15)
Clinton 60 (60) / Cruz 36 (35), margin = Clinton +24 (+25)
Clinton 60 (56) / Carson 36 (40), margin = Clinton +24 (+16)

In the CNN/ORC poll, Hillary Clinton is well above the 50 mark in all 8 matchups and beats her prospective Republican opponents by between a landslide +14 and a blowout +24. There have now been 67 national polls, Hillary vs. specific GOP challengers, making for 241 matchups to-date, of which Hillary has decisively won 234 (97.10%). This poll, with the matchups against Cruz and Carson, make for the third time that Hillary has hit the 60% mark in a national poll. I can guarantee you that since 1984, no candidate has hit the 60 mark in any national polling. If you go to the CNN link, you will see how well Hillary is doing in the female vote: +27 over Rubio / +32 over Bush, J and Carson / +34 over Christie / +35 over Walker and Cruz / +36 over Paul / +39 over Huckabee. Just to remind: Obama won the female vote in 2012 by +11. Hillary is at double to triple that margin.

Also in the CNN/ORC poll:

Democratic nomination:

Hillary 69 / Biden 11 / Sanders 5 / Someone else 5 / Webb 3 / Chafee 1 / O'Malley 1, margin = Hillary +58


Republican nomination:

Bush, J 17 / Walker 12 / Paul 11 / Rubio 11 / Huckabee 9 / Cruz 7 / Someone else 5 / Carson 4 / Christie 3 / Santorum 3 / Fiorina 2 / Graham 2 / Jindal 2 / Kasich 2, margin = Bush, J +5


So, one week after the Clinton rollout, apparently, her method helped her among Democrats: she has gone from 62% to 69% and is absolutely the prohibitive front-runner for the DEM nomination.

The GOP field looks just as muddy as it has looked the entire time, which is not unusual for the opposition party going into an open cycle. However, none of these candidates are doing as well as Mitt Romney was doing at this point of time in 2011: he was hanging at right around 23% in most polling.

Wisconsin:​

Marquette University Poll, released 16.04.2015
803 RV, MoE = +/-3.5, the interviews were conducted from 07.04 to 10.04, BEFORE Hillary's announcement. The values in (parentheses) are from the previous Marquette poll for that particular matchup.



Clinton 49 / Paul 41, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 49 (50) / Bush, J 38 (39), margin = Clinton +11 (+10)
Clinton 50 / Rubio 38, margin = Clinton +12
Clinton 52 (53.3) / Walker 40 (40.6), margin = Clinton +12 (+12.7)
Clinton 52 (55.3) / Cruz 36 (33.4), margin = Clinton +16 (+21.9)

The Marquette University poll shows Clinton leading five prospective GOP opponents by between +8 and +16. Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by +14 and in 2012 by +7, so even Hillary's leanest value is larger than Obama's actual win from 2012. That being said, the margin against Cruz has shrunken some. With values like that, if they hold, then Wisconsin is nowhere near being a battleground state in 2016.

A PPP (D) poll from Wisconsin in March showed leaner margins than this, so it will be interesting to see what both their next poll and Marquette's next poll says.

Marquette was one of the three best pollsters in the final polling of Wisconsin in 2012. It predicted Obama +8, he won by +7, so Marquette was off to the Left by 1 point. Rasmussen, on the other hand, completely missed the call, called a tie, and was therefore off by 7 points to the Right.

To-date, there have now been 9 polls of the Badger state, with 40 individual matchups, of which Hillary has won 37, the GOP has won 2 and there has been 1 mathematical tie.

Florida:​

Mason-Dixon (R) poll, released 20.04.2015
625 RV, MoE = +/-4.5, the interviews were held from 14.04 to 18.04.2015

Rubio 49 / Clinton 43, margin = Rubio +6
Bush, J 47 / Clinton 43, margin = Bush, J +4


This is the first Mason-Dixon of this cycle for Florida, so there is no older data with which to compare.

In 2012, the final Mason-Dixon poll of Florida, released 02.11.2012, predicted Romney +6 (Romney 51 / Obama 45). In reality, Obama won by 1, so Mason-Dixon was off by 7 full points to the Right in the Orange-Juice state and had the highest mathematical bias of any of the end pollster for that state in that year. So, Mason-Dixon's reputation is already severely damaged. However, in a breach with their tradition, M/D did release some internals with this poll. And in doing so, M-D shows Hillary just barely winning the female vote in Florida, by +4 over Bush and by +8 over Rubio, well under the national margins in the female vote. I consider this to be highly, highly unlikely, especially considering that Florida is a microcosm for the nation in many ways.

In a national atmosphere where Hillary is leading ALL GOP comers by landslide margins, it is unlikely that she is losing in Florida. There have now been 23 polls of Florida and 89 specific-name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has won 83.

Either way, it will be interesting to see what the NEXT Mason-Dixon poll says.

So, those were the numbers for the first week, post-Hillary announcement.

Cool......Hillary for some reason is the only announced Democrat candidate......so essentially she's running against a split vote between 4 Republicans.
What an accomplishment.

I think it's unseemly that the only Democrat being allowed to run is a highly flawed candidate with no real accomplishments, who never earned a cent that she made in her life, plenty of disastrous decisions because she was taking bribes from foreign interests while in office, and currently under indictment for racketeering. The only candidate the Dems can offer is an ugly, fat, closeted Lesbian, who needs two phones in order to have two email addresses, who is guilty of almost as many felonies as Obama.

You guys must be so proud. Obviously winning is more important to you than getting the right person for the job....preventing it from becoming disastrous like the Obama Administration. And what's worse....you must feel that Americans are this damn stupid. Judging from the lack of excitement from actual voters at all of her staged events shows she's not as popular as you claim.

Wahhhhhhh, somebody call a wambulance, Mudwhistle is having a butt hurt. Like any of the conservative clowns are the right person for the job.... They all want to put the screws to the middle-class, Mud must be one of the 1%, or he's delusional.

Shut up bitch.

Ahhh, keeping it classy, I see, in great Republican tradition.

Thank you for your female voter outreach, Mud ---

for the Democratic Party.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Trying to get this thread back on track.

It's hard with Stephanie trolling for all it is worth and not knowing what in the fuck she is saying, poor Cleeta. But she's a RWNJ, she'll get away with it.

Even in the elections forum, many Conservative just can't behave like human beings. They've lost the ability....

 

[rightwinger]

Gawd help us all. this woman should be in the single digits with all her scandals, accepting foreign donations from countries like IRAN, her emails, and on an on

This country is doomed with the citizen voters of today

Poor Steph, doesn't know when she's better off. The scandals are all conservative manufactured, and God help you if a conservative should happen to get elected.....they'll get rid of welfare, then where will you be?

Its not that they are manufactured, but they are so damn lame

Is this the best Republicans can do?

Stephanie as their point man?

 

[Mertex]

Its not that they are manufactured, but they are so damn lame

Considering the millions of e-mails that Bush and Rove destroyed when he was President, yep, they're manufactured. Considering the thousands killed under Bush's watch and the belly-aching they've done over 4 men killed during Benghazi, yep, they are manufactured. And Hillary wasn't even President during Benghazi!

 

[Statistikhengst]

And just wait until the next large batch of state polling comes in.

With these kind of national numbers, which were all biased to the RIGHT in 2012, not to the LEFT (I am referring to mathematical bias, not a feeling), then the state polling should show Clinton pretty much cruising in many, many states...

 

[Mertex]

It's no wonder all the gut-wrenching the GOP is going through....they knew it was coming and they didn't prepare.....

Be Afraid, GOP: Hillary Clinton Is Back and She Will Beat You in 2016
And her return should strike fear in the hearts of Republicans everywhere. Robert Shrum on why Hillary will prevail in 2016.

She's back. And it seems like she never left at all.

Be Afraid GOP Hillary Clinton Is Back and She Will Beat You in 2016 - The Daily Beast

 

[guno]

Gawd help us all. this woman should be in the single digits with all her scandals, accepting foreign donations from countries like IRAN, her emails, and on an on

This country is doomed with the citizen voters of today

OMG OMG OMG

 

[Statistikhengst]

It has now been 9 days since Hillary Clinton declared her candidacy and some polling results have come in. Not all of them were actually taken in the time-frame after her candidacy was declared, but as of this week, that will definitely be the case.

National:​

Rasmussen Polling, released 14.04.2015
1000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0, polled on 09.04 and 12.04.2015
So, the second day of this poll was on the day that Hillary announced, but not after.



Clinton 47 / Paul 37, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 47 / Cruz 37, margin = Clinton +10


So, based on data from before Clinton's announcement, she leads both declared Republicans by +10. One notes that Rasmussen ALWAYS finds a way to keep a Democrat under 50% as long as possible. Considering that Rasmussen has a proven mathematical bias of +4 to the Right, both of these margins could easily be more like +14, more in line with most all other national polling.


CNN/ORC, released 20.04.2015
1,018 A, MoE = +/-3.0, polled from 16.04 to 19.04, all after Hillary and Rubio's announcements.
The values in (parentheses) are from the previous CNN/ORC poll for that particular matchup.

Clinton 55 (55) / Rubio 41 (42), margin = Clinton +14 (+13)
Clinton 56 (55) / Bush, J 39 (40), margin = Clinton +17 (+15)
Clinton 58 (54) / Paul 39 (43), margin = Clinton +19 (+11)
Clinton 58 (55) / Christie 39 (40), margin = Clinton +19 (+15)
Clinton 58 (55) / Huckabee 37 (41), margin = Clinton +21 (+14)
Clinton 59 (55) / Walker 37 (40), margin = Clinton +22 (+15)
Clinton 60 (60) / Cruz 36 (35), margin = Clinton +24 (+25)
Clinton 60 (56) / Carson 36 (40), margin = Clinton +24 (+16)

In the CNN/ORC poll, Hillary Clinton is well above the 50 mark in all 8 matchups and beats her prospective Republican opponents by between a landslide +14 and a blowout +24. There have now been 67 national polls, Hillary vs. specific GOP challengers, making for 241 matchups to-date, of which Hillary has decisively won 234 (97.10%). This poll, with the matchups against Cruz and Carson, make for the third time that Hillary has hit the 60% mark in a national poll. I can guarantee you that since 1984, no candidate has hit the 60 mark in any national polling. If you go to the CNN link, you will see how well Hillary is doing in the female vote: +27 over Rubio / +32 over Bush, J and Carson / +34 over Christie / +35 over Walker and Cruz / +36 over Paul / +39 over Huckabee. Just to remind: Obama won the female vote in 2012 by +11. Hillary is at double to triple that margin.

Also in the CNN/ORC poll:

Democratic nomination:

Hillary 69 / Biden 11 / Sanders 5 / Someone else 5 / Webb 3 / Chafee 1 / O'Malley 1, margin = Hillary +58


Republican nomination:

Bush, J 17 / Walker 12 / Paul 11 / Rubio 11 / Huckabee 9 / Cruz 7 / Someone else 5 / Carson 4 / Christie 3 / Santorum 3 / Fiorina 2 / Graham 2 / Jindal 2 / Kasich 2, margin = Bush, J +5


So, one week after the Clinton rollout, apparently, her method helped her among Democrats: she has gone from 62% to 69% and is absolutely the prohibitive front-runner for the DEM nomination.

The GOP field looks just as muddy as it has looked the entire time, which is not unusual for the opposition party going into an open cycle. However, none of these candidates are doing as well as Mitt Romney was doing at this point of time in 2011: he was hanging at right around 23% in most polling.

Wisconsin:​

Marquette University Poll, released 16.04.2015
803 RV, MoE = +/-3.5, the interviews were conducted from 07.04 to 10.04, BEFORE Hillary's announcement. The values in (parentheses) are from the previous Marquette poll for that particular matchup.



Clinton 49 / Paul 41, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 49 (50) / Bush, J 38 (39), margin = Clinton +11 (+10)
Clinton 50 / Rubio 38, margin = Clinton +12
Clinton 52 (53.3) / Walker 40 (40.6), margin = Clinton +12 (+12.7)
Clinton 52 (55.3) / Cruz 36 (33.4), margin = Clinton +16 (+21.9)

The Marquette University poll shows Clinton leading five prospective GOP opponents by between +8 and +16. Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by +14 and in 2012 by +7, so even Hillary's leanest value is larger than Obama's actual win from 2012. That being said, the margin against Cruz has shrunken some. With values like that, if they hold, then Wisconsin is nowhere near being a battleground state in 2016.

A PPP (D) poll from Wisconsin in March showed leaner margins than this, so it will be interesting to see what both their next poll and Marquette's next poll says.

Marquette was one of the three best pollsters in the final polling of Wisconsin in 2012. It predicted Obama +8, he won by +7, so Marquette was off to the Left by 1 point. Rasmussen, on the other hand, completely missed the call, called a tie, and was therefore off by 7 points to the Right.

To-date, there have now been 9 polls of the Badger state, with 40 individual matchups, of which Hillary has won 37, the GOP has won 2 and there has been 1 mathematical tie.

Florida:​

Mason-Dixon (R) poll, released 20.04.2015
625 RV, MoE = +/-4.5, the interviews were held from 14.04 to 18.04.2015

Rubio 49 / Clinton 43, margin = Rubio +6
Bush, J 47 / Clinton 43, margin = Bush, J +4


This is the first Mason-Dixon of this cycle for Florida, so there is no older data with which to compare.

In 2012, the final Mason-Dixon poll of Florida, released 02.11.2012, predicted Romney +6 (Romney 51 / Obama 45). In reality, Obama won by 1, so Mason-Dixon was off by 7 full points to the Right in the Orange-Juice state and had the highest mathematical bias of any of the end pollster for that state in that year. So, Mason-Dixon's reputation is already severely damaged. However, in a breach with their tradition, M/D did release some internals with this poll. And in doing so, M-D shows Hillary just barely winning the female vote in Florida, by +4 over Bush and by +8 over Rubio, well under the national margins in the female vote. I consider this to be highly, highly unlikely, especially considering that Florida is a microcosm for the nation in many ways.

In a national atmosphere where Hillary is leading ALL GOP comers by landslide margins, it is unlikely that she is losing in Florida. There have now been 23 polls of Florida and 89 specific-name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has won 83.

Either way, it will be interesting to see what the NEXT Mason-Dixon poll says.

So, those were the numbers for the first week, post-Hillary announcement.

Cool......Hillary for some reason is the only announced Democrat candidate......so essentially she's running against a split vote between 4 Republicans.
What an accomplishment.

I think it's unseemly that the only Democrat being allowed to run is a highly flawed candidate with no real accomplishments, who never earned a cent that she made in her life, plenty of disastrous decisions because she was taking bribes from foreign interests while in office, and currently under indictment for racketeering. The only candidate the Dems can offer is an ugly, fat, closeted Lesbian, who needs two phones in order to have two email addresses, who is guilty of almost as many felonies as Obama.

You guys must be so proud. Obviously winning is more important to you than getting the right person for the job....preventing it from becoming disastrous like the Obama Administration. And what's worse....you must feel that Americans are this damn stupid. Judging from the lack of excitement from actual voters at all of her staged events shows she's not as popular as you claim.

You are deliberately misunderstanding.

The matchups are 1 on 1 matchups, so it doesn't matter if there are 4 or 40 prospective GOP candidates.

You do understand this, right?

 

[Mertex]

It has now been 9 days since Hillary Clinton declared her candidacy and some polling results have come in. Not all of them were actually taken in the time-frame after her candidacy was declared, but as of this week, that will definitely be the case.

National:​

Rasmussen Polling, released 14.04.2015
1000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0, polled on 09.04 and 12.04.2015
So, the second day of this poll was on the day that Hillary announced, but not after.



Clinton 47 / Paul 37, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 47 / Cruz 37, margin = Clinton +10


So, based on data from before Clinton's announcement, she leads both declared Republicans by +10. One notes that Rasmussen ALWAYS finds a way to keep a Democrat under 50% as long as possible. Considering that Rasmussen has a proven mathematical bias of +4 to the Right, both of these margins could easily be more like +14, more in line with most all other national polling.


CNN/ORC, released 20.04.2015
1,018 A, MoE = +/-3.0, polled from 16.04 to 19.04, all after Hillary and Rubio's announcements.
The values in (parentheses) are from the previous CNN/ORC poll for that particular matchup.

Clinton 55 (55) / Rubio 41 (42), margin = Clinton +14 (+13)
Clinton 56 (55) / Bush, J 39 (40), margin = Clinton +17 (+15)
Clinton 58 (54) / Paul 39 (43), margin = Clinton +19 (+11)
Clinton 58 (55) / Christie 39 (40), margin = Clinton +19 (+15)
Clinton 58 (55) / Huckabee 37 (41), margin = Clinton +21 (+14)
Clinton 59 (55) / Walker 37 (40), margin = Clinton +22 (+15)
Clinton 60 (60) / Cruz 36 (35), margin = Clinton +24 (+25)
Clinton 60 (56) / Carson 36 (40), margin = Clinton +24 (+16)

In the CNN/ORC poll, Hillary Clinton is well above the 50 mark in all 8 matchups and beats her prospective Republican opponents by between a landslide +14 and a blowout +24. There have now been 67 national polls, Hillary vs. specific GOP challengers, making for 241 matchups to-date, of which Hillary has decisively won 234 (97.10%). This poll, with the matchups against Cruz and Carson, make for the third time that Hillary has hit the 60% mark in a national poll. I can guarantee you that since 1984, no candidate has hit the 60 mark in any national polling. If you go to the CNN link, you will see how well Hillary is doing in the female vote: +27 over Rubio / +32 over Bush, J and Carson / +34 over Christie / +35 over Walker and Cruz / +36 over Paul / +39 over Huckabee. Just to remind: Obama won the female vote in 2012 by +11. Hillary is at double to triple that margin.

Also in the CNN/ORC poll:

Democratic nomination:

Hillary 69 / Biden 11 / Sanders 5 / Someone else 5 / Webb 3 / Chafee 1 / O'Malley 1, margin = Hillary +58


Republican nomination:

Bush, J 17 / Walker 12 / Paul 11 / Rubio 11 / Huckabee 9 / Cruz 7 / Someone else 5 / Carson 4 / Christie 3 / Santorum 3 / Fiorina 2 / Graham 2 / Jindal 2 / Kasich 2, margin = Bush, J +5


So, one week after the Clinton rollout, apparently, her method helped her among Democrats: she has gone from 62% to 69% and is absolutely the prohibitive front-runner for the DEM nomination.

The GOP field looks just as muddy as it has looked the entire time, which is not unusual for the opposition party going into an open cycle. However, none of these candidates are doing as well as Mitt Romney was doing at this point of time in 2011: he was hanging at right around 23% in most polling.

Wisconsin:​

Marquette University Poll, released 16.04.2015
803 RV, MoE = +/-3.5, the interviews were conducted from 07.04 to 10.04, BEFORE Hillary's announcement. The values in (parentheses) are from the previous Marquette poll for that particular matchup.



Clinton 49 / Paul 41, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 49 (50) / Bush, J 38 (39), margin = Clinton +11 (+10)
Clinton 50 / Rubio 38, margin = Clinton +12
Clinton 52 (53.3) / Walker 40 (40.6), margin = Clinton +12 (+12.7)
Clinton 52 (55.3) / Cruz 36 (33.4), margin = Clinton +16 (+21.9)

The Marquette University poll shows Clinton leading five prospective GOP opponents by between +8 and +16. Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by +14 and in 2012 by +7, so even Hillary's leanest value is larger than Obama's actual win from 2012. That being said, the margin against Cruz has shrunken some. With values like that, if they hold, then Wisconsin is nowhere near being a battleground state in 2016.

A PPP (D) poll from Wisconsin in March showed leaner margins than this, so it will be interesting to see what both their next poll and Marquette's next poll says.

Marquette was one of the three best pollsters in the final polling of Wisconsin in 2012. It predicted Obama +8, he won by +7, so Marquette was off to the Left by 1 point. Rasmussen, on the other hand, completely missed the call, called a tie, and was therefore off by 7 points to the Right.

To-date, there have now been 9 polls of the Badger state, with 40 individual matchups, of which Hillary has won 37, the GOP has won 2 and there has been 1 mathematical tie.

Florida:​

Mason-Dixon (R) poll, released 20.04.2015
625 RV, MoE = +/-4.5, the interviews were held from 14.04 to 18.04.2015

Rubio 49 / Clinton 43, margin = Rubio +6
Bush, J 47 / Clinton 43, margin = Bush, J +4


This is the first Mason-Dixon of this cycle for Florida, so there is no older data with which to compare.

In 2012, the final Mason-Dixon poll of Florida, released 02.11.2012, predicted Romney +6 (Romney 51 / Obama 45). In reality, Obama won by 1, so Mason-Dixon was off by 7 full points to the Right in the Orange-Juice state and had the highest mathematical bias of any of the end pollster for that state in that year. So, Mason-Dixon's reputation is already severely damaged. However, in a breach with their tradition, M/D did release some internals with this poll. And in doing so, M-D shows Hillary just barely winning the female vote in Florida, by +4 over Bush and by +8 over Rubio, well under the national margins in the female vote. I consider this to be highly, highly unlikely, especially considering that Florida is a microcosm for the nation in many ways.

In a national atmosphere where Hillary is leading ALL GOP comers by landslide margins, it is unlikely that she is losing in Florida. There have now been 23 polls of Florida and 89 specific-name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has won 83.

Either way, it will be interesting to see what the NEXT Mason-Dixon poll says.

So, those were the numbers for the first week, post-Hillary announcement.

Cool......Hillary for some reason is the only announced Democrat candidate......so essentially she's running against a split vote between 4 Republicans.
What an accomplishment.

I think it's unseemly that the only Democrat being allowed to run is a highly flawed candidate with no real accomplishments, who never earned a cent that she made in her life, plenty of disastrous decisions because she was taking bribes from foreign interests while in office, and currently under indictment for racketeering. The only candidate the Dems can offer is an ugly, fat, closeted Lesbian, who needs two phones in order to have two email addresses, who is guilty of almost as many felonies as Obama.

You guys must be so proud. Obviously winning is more important to you than getting the right person for the job....preventing it from becoming disastrous like the Obama Administration. And what's worse....you must feel that Americans are this damn stupid. Judging from the lack of excitement from actual voters at all of her staged events shows she's not as popular as you claim.

You are deliberately misunderstanding.

The matchups are 1 on 1 matchups, so it doesn't matter if there are 4 or 40 prospective GOP candidates.

You do understand this, right?

It's hard to see through the butt hurt........

 

[Statistikhengst]

Gawd help us all. this woman should be in the single digits with all her scandals, accepting foreign donations from countries like IRAN, her emails, and on an on

This country is doomed with the citizen voters of today

OMG OMG OMG

OMG frikken Obamabum doin it agian with voter citizen of tiddy Deer Leeder OMG frikken frikken... AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGHHHHHHHHHHHH!

 

[jon_berzerk]

Gawd help us all. this woman should be in the single digits with all her scandals, accepting foreign donations from countries like IRAN, her emails, and on an on

This country is doomed with the citizen voters of today

perhaps you have missed cnns constant plugging for her --LOL

reminds me of the narrative on the big screen outside the casino in back to the future II

"biff world"

--LOL

 

[mudwhistle]

It has now been 9 days since Hillary Clinton declared her candidacy and some polling results have come in. Not all of them were actually taken in the time-frame after her candidacy was declared, but as of this week, that will definitely be the case.

National:​

Rasmussen Polling, released 14.04.2015
1000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0, polled on 09.04 and 12.04.2015
So, the second day of this poll was on the day that Hillary announced, but not after.



Clinton 47 / Paul 37, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 47 / Cruz 37, margin = Clinton +10


So, based on data from before Clinton's announcement, she leads both declared Republicans by +10. One notes that Rasmussen ALWAYS finds a way to keep a Democrat under 50% as long as possible. Considering that Rasmussen has a proven mathematical bias of +4 to the Right, both of these margins could easily be more like +14, more in line with most all other national polling.


CNN/ORC, released 20.04.2015
1,018 A, MoE = +/-3.0, polled from 16.04 to 19.04, all after Hillary and Rubio's announcements.
The values in (parentheses) are from the previous CNN/ORC poll for that particular matchup.

Clinton 55 (55) / Rubio 41 (42), margin = Clinton +14 (+13)
Clinton 56 (55) / Bush, J 39 (40), margin = Clinton +17 (+15)
Clinton 58 (54) / Paul 39 (43), margin = Clinton +19 (+11)
Clinton 58 (55) / Christie 39 (40), margin = Clinton +19 (+15)
Clinton 58 (55) / Huckabee 37 (41), margin = Clinton +21 (+14)
Clinton 59 (55) / Walker 37 (40), margin = Clinton +22 (+15)
Clinton 60 (60) / Cruz 36 (35), margin = Clinton +24 (+25)
Clinton 60 (56) / Carson 36 (40), margin = Clinton +24 (+16)

In the CNN/ORC poll, Hillary Clinton is well above the 50 mark in all 8 matchups and beats her prospective Republican opponents by between a landslide +14 and a blowout +24. There have now been 67 national polls, Hillary vs. specific GOP challengers, making for 241 matchups to-date, of which Hillary has decisively won 234 (97.10%). This poll, with the matchups against Cruz and Carson, make for the third time that Hillary has hit the 60% mark in a national poll. I can guarantee you that since 1984, no candidate has hit the 60 mark in any national polling. If you go to the CNN link, you will see how well Hillary is doing in the female vote: +27 over Rubio / +32 over Bush, J and Carson / +34 over Christie / +35 over Walker and Cruz / +36 over Paul / +39 over Huckabee. Just to remind: Obama won the female vote in 2012 by +11. Hillary is at double to triple that margin.

Also in the CNN/ORC poll:

Democratic nomination:

Hillary 69 / Biden 11 / Sanders 5 / Someone else 5 / Webb 3 / Chafee 1 / O'Malley 1, margin = Hillary +58


Republican nomination:

Bush, J 17 / Walker 12 / Paul 11 / Rubio 11 / Huckabee 9 / Cruz 7 / Someone else 5 / Carson 4 / Christie 3 / Santorum 3 / Fiorina 2 / Graham 2 / Jindal 2 / Kasich 2, margin = Bush, J +5


So, one week after the Clinton rollout, apparently, her method helped her among Democrats: she has gone from 62% to 69% and is absolutely the prohibitive front-runner for the DEM nomination.

The GOP field looks just as muddy as it has looked the entire time, which is not unusual for the opposition party going into an open cycle. However, none of these candidates are doing as well as Mitt Romney was doing at this point of time in 2011: he was hanging at right around 23% in most polling.

Wisconsin:​

Marquette University Poll, released 16.04.2015
803 RV, MoE = +/-3.5, the interviews were conducted from 07.04 to 10.04, BEFORE Hillary's announcement. The values in (parentheses) are from the previous Marquette poll for that particular matchup.



Clinton 49 / Paul 41, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 49 (50) / Bush, J 38 (39), margin = Clinton +11 (+10)
Clinton 50 / Rubio 38, margin = Clinton +12
Clinton 52 (53.3) / Walker 40 (40.6), margin = Clinton +12 (+12.7)
Clinton 52 (55.3) / Cruz 36 (33.4), margin = Clinton +16 (+21.9)

The Marquette University poll shows Clinton leading five prospective GOP opponents by between +8 and +16. Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by +14 and in 2012 by +7, so even Hillary's leanest value is larger than Obama's actual win from 2012. That being said, the margin against Cruz has shrunken some. With values like that, if they hold, then Wisconsin is nowhere near being a battleground state in 2016.

A PPP (D) poll from Wisconsin in March showed leaner margins than this, so it will be interesting to see what both their next poll and Marquette's next poll says.

Marquette was one of the three best pollsters in the final polling of Wisconsin in 2012. It predicted Obama +8, he won by +7, so Marquette was off to the Left by 1 point. Rasmussen, on the other hand, completely missed the call, called a tie, and was therefore off by 7 points to the Right.

To-date, there have now been 9 polls of the Badger state, with 40 individual matchups, of which Hillary has won 37, the GOP has won 2 and there has been 1 mathematical tie.

Florida:​

Mason-Dixon (R) poll, released 20.04.2015
625 RV, MoE = +/-4.5, the interviews were held from 14.04 to 18.04.2015

Rubio 49 / Clinton 43, margin = Rubio +6
Bush, J 47 / Clinton 43, margin = Bush, J +4


This is the first Mason-Dixon of this cycle for Florida, so there is no older data with which to compare.

In 2012, the final Mason-Dixon poll of Florida, released 02.11.2012, predicted Romney +6 (Romney 51 / Obama 45). In reality, Obama won by 1, so Mason-Dixon was off by 7 full points to the Right in the Orange-Juice state and had the highest mathematical bias of any of the end pollster for that state in that year. So, Mason-Dixon's reputation is already severely damaged. However, in a breach with their tradition, M/D did release some internals with this poll. And in doing so, M-D shows Hillary just barely winning the female vote in Florida, by +4 over Bush and by +8 over Rubio, well under the national margins in the female vote. I consider this to be highly, highly unlikely, especially considering that Florida is a microcosm for the nation in many ways.

In a national atmosphere where Hillary is leading ALL GOP comers by landslide margins, it is unlikely that she is losing in Florida. There have now been 23 polls of Florida and 89 specific-name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has won 83.

Either way, it will be interesting to see what the NEXT Mason-Dixon poll says.

So, those were the numbers for the first week, post-Hillary announcement.

Cool......Hillary for some reason is the only announced Democrat candidate......so essentially she's running against a split vote between 4 Republicans.
What an accomplishment.

I think it's unseemly that the only Democrat being allowed to run is a highly flawed candidate with no real accomplishments, who never earned a cent that she made in her life, plenty of disastrous decisions because she was taking bribes from foreign interests while in office, and currently under indictment for racketeering. The only candidate the Dems can offer is an ugly, fat, closeted Lesbian, who needs two phones in order to have two email addresses, who is guilty of almost as many felonies as Obama.

You guys must be so proud. Obviously winning is more important to you than getting the right person for the job....preventing it from becoming disastrous like the Obama Administration. And what's worse....you must feel that Americans are this damn stupid. Judging from the lack of excitement from actual voters at all of her staged events shows she's not as popular as you claim.

You are deliberately misunderstanding.

The matchups are 1 on 1 matchups, so it doesn't matter if there are 4 or 40 prospective GOP candidates.

You do understand this, right?

It's hard to see through the butt hurt........

A little premature....because the ughly bitch hasn't won anything yet.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Note: the OP has been edited and a Quinnipiac Poll for New Jersey has been added.