Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead

[U2Edge]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

 

[Rev.Hellh0und]

Biden will lose all of this after the debates.

 

[liarintheWH]

Biden will lose all of this after the debates.

Then the spineless OP won’t admit he was wrong after Biden gets his ass handed to him.

Easy prediction.

 

[colfax_m]

Biden will lose all of this after the debates.

I really don't think debates have any impact on the race anymore. They certainly didn't in last election.

 

[Rev.Hellh0und]

Biden will lose all of this after the debates.

I really don't think debates have any impact on the race anymore. They certainly didn't in last election.

When they see trump tearing biden apart and biden cognitive decline is there for all to see, it's over.

He is in cognitive crisis which is why he's in hiding.

 

[colfax_m]

Structurally, this election is vastly different than 2016.

Biden isn't Clinton. Clinton had an FBI investigation and Russian interference dragging her down. She was not charismatic. She was widely disliked by large swaths of the population for a history of scandals.

Trump isn't an outsider. He now owns US policy and current situation. If things were going great, that'd be one thing, but <gestures widely the current dumpster fire> that's not the case.

That being said, I have no idea what's going to happen, but if you think this is just like 2016, you need a wakeup call.

 

[007]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

 

[colfax_m]

Biden will lose all of this after the debates.

I really don't think debates have any impact on the race anymore. They certainly didn't in last election.

When they see trump tearing biden apart and biden cognitive decline is there for all to see, it's over.

He is in cognitive crisis which is why he's in hiding.

Sure. And we're all so impressed by Trump's brilliance in being able to identify a camel on a cognitive test. Very hard questions.

 

[colfax_m]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

They were correct in 2018 at predicting a wave election for Dems, were they not?

 

[U2Edge]

Biden will lose all of this after the debates.

How is Trump going to defend is record on the terrible and worsening coronavirus situation in the United States in a debate?

How is Trump going to defend the fact that the economy is now in the worst recession since the 1930s in the debate?

How is Trump going to defend the fact that unemployment is the highest it has ever been since the 1930s in the debate?

Are Americans better off right now in the last half of 2020 than they were in the last half of 2016? How will Trump answer that question in the debate?

How will Trump answer his core supporters about the WALL, building it, and having Mexico pay for it? Only 3 miles of WALL have been built and Mexico has not paid a cent.

 

[007]

Structurally, this election is vastly different than 2016.

Biden isn't Clinton. Clinton had an FBI investigation and Russian interference dragging her down. She was not charismatic. She was widely disliked by large swaths of the population for a history of scandals.

Trump isn't an outsider. He now owns US policy and current situation. If things were going great, that'd be one thing, but <gestures widely the current dumpster fire> that's not the case.

That being said, I have no idea what's going to happen, but if you think this is just like 2016, you need a wakeup call.

BS. COVID-19 owns the "current situation." And if you blame him for it, then you're a leftist that hated him before it even started, there's nothing new.

And yes, this is exactly like 2016. The democrats have nominated the absolute worst possible candidate out of what appeared to be 4 or 5 hundred, and now they have to prop him up with fake polls and hyperbole as if people actually like the creepy old, senile, hair sniffing, groping, gaffe a minute, if you don't vote for me, you ain't black, hiding in his basement, can't get a whole sentence out without forgetting what he was talking about, Biden.

YOU need the wake up call, because it appears the democrat propaganda wing can buffalo your ass with the very same garbage they always pull, and you fail to ever learn it's bull shit.

 

[Rev.Hellh0und]

Biden will lose all of this after the debates.

How is Trump going to defend is record on the terrible and worsening coronavirus situation in the United States in a debate?

How is Trump going to defend the fact that the economy is now in the worst recession since the 1930s in the debate?

How is Trump going to defend the fact that unemployment is the highest it has ever been since the 1930s in the debate?

Are Americans better off right now in the last half of 2020 than they were in the last half of 2016? How will Trump answer that question in the debate?

How will Trump answer his core supporters about the WALL, building it, and having Mexico pay for it? Only 3 miles of WALL have been built and Mexico has not paid a cent.

None of that will matter when biden opens his mouth. that's what you don't get. The democrats had one job, beat trump... so what do they do, they nominate an old man who tells racist stories, who is in cognitive crisis, who has a history of voting with segregationists. but the thing thats going to kill joe is his mouth, when not scripted on the debate stage.

 

[007]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

They were correct in 2018 at predicting a wave election for Dems, were they not?

The conversation is about presidential polls, is it not?

 

[colfax_m]

BS. COVID-19 owns the "current situation." And if you blame him for it, then you're a leftist that hated him before it even started, there's nothing new.

Not my fault that he owns COVID. Trump said he had it handled. He took ownership, well, at least before it became a dumpster fire.

 

[Not2BSubjugated]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

These comparisons aren't nearly comprehensive.

In fact, unless you compare the poll sampling from 2016 with the poll sampling from 2020, then compare both of those samples with the actual political affiliation percentages of the group being polled in those polls' respective years, and THEN compare those comparisons, you're actually learning nothing from the numbers you've quoted.

Methodology is everything. Lists of decontextualized final percentages are for dumbshits looking to feel secure about the future.

 

[colfax_m]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

They were correct in 2018 at predicting a wave election for Dems, were they not?

The conversation is about presidential polls, is it not?

They operate under the exact same principles. Polls are right far more than they aren’t.

 

[007]

Biden will lose all of this after the debates.

How is Trump going to defend is record on the terrible and worsening coronavirus situation in the United States in a debate?

How is Trump going to defend the fact that the economy is now in the worst recession since the 1930s in the debate?

How is Trump going to defend the fact that unemployment is the highest it has ever been since the 1930s in the debate?

Are Americans better off right now in the last half of 2020 than they were in the last half of 2016? How will Trump answer that question in the debate?

How will Trump answer his core supporters about the WALL, building it, and having Mexico pay for it? Only 3 miles of WALL have been built and Mexico has not paid a cent.

Sometimes... an ass clown like you comes along and posts SO MUCH BULL SHIT... that just leaves a person wondering to themselves, why should I even respond.

You leftists are truly SHIT TALKING gutter snakes.

 

[U2Edge]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

The part that they are usually right and correctly predicted who would win the popular vote in 2016. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.09% points. The polls on election day predicted a 3.0% point victory for Hillary Clinton in the popular vote. Its not exact or perfect, but close enough an the polls correctly predicted the winner in the national popular vote. I don't think the polls have been wrong about the national popular vote in decades.

Trump can't win the popular vote which makes his chances of winning the electoral college highly unlikely despite the FLUKE of 2016. Over 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote is the winner of the electoral college over the past 200 years.

 

[007]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

They were correct in 2018 at predicting a wave election for Dems, were they not?

The conversation is about presidential polls, is it not?

They operate under the exact same principles. Polls are right far more than they aren’t.

I see you want to double down on stupid... fine... have at it skippy.

 

[007]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

The part that they are usually right and correctly predicted who would win the popular vote in 2016. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.09% points. The polls on election day predicted a 3.0% point victory for Hillary Clinton in the popular vote. Its not exact or perfect, but close enough an the polls correctly predicted the winner in the national popular vote. I don't think the polls have been wrong about the national popular vote in decades.

Trump can't win the popular vote which makes his chances of winning the electoral college highly unlikely despite the FLUKE of 2016. Over 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote is the winner of the electoral college over the past 200 years.

Hitlery didn't win the popular vote either.

You're a liar and ignorant beyond words.