Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead

[U2Edge]

Biden will lose all of this after the debates.

How is Trump going to defend is record on the terrible and worsening coronavirus situation in the United States in a debate?

How is Trump going to defend the fact that the economy is now in the worst recession since the 1930s in the debate?

How is Trump going to defend the fact that unemployment is the highest it has ever been since the 1930s in the debate?

Are Americans better off right now in the last half of 2020 than they were in the last half of 2016? How will Trump answer that question in the debate?

How will Trump answer his core supporters about the WALL, building it, and having Mexico pay for it? Only 3 miles of WALL have been built and Mexico has not paid a cent.

Sometimes... an ass clown like you comes along and posts SO MUCH BULL SHIT... that just leaves a person wondering to themselves, why should I even respond.

You leftists are truly SHIT TALKING gutter snakes.

I'm a registered Republican and have voted Republican nearly all my life. But in 2016, I made the same decision as former President George H.W. Bush and voted for Hillary Clinton, the first Democrat I ever voted for in my life.

 

[colfax_m]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

They were correct in 2018 at predicting a wave election for Dems, were they not?

The conversation is about presidential polls, is it not?

They operate under the exact same principles. Polls are right far more than they aren’t.

I see you want to double down on stupid... fine... have at it skippy.

The stupid is saying that "all polls are BS". That's idiotic and unsupportable.

 

[colfax_m]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

The part that they are usually right and correctly predicted who would win the popular vote in 2016. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.09% points. The polls on election day predicted a 3.0% point victory for Hillary Clinton in the popular vote. Its not exact or perfect, but close enough an the polls correctly predicted the winner in the national popular vote. I don't think the polls have been wrong about the national popular vote in decades.

Trump can't win the popular vote which makes his chances of winning the electoral college highly unlikely despite the FLUKE of 2016. Over 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote is the winner of the electoral college over the past 200 years.

Hitlery didn't win the popular vote either.

You're a liar and ignorant beyond words.

Of course she did. By basically the same margin as the national polls predicted she would.

 

[U2Edge]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

The part that they are usually right and correctly predicted who would win the popular vote in 2016. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.09% points. The polls on election day predicted a 3.0% point victory for Hillary Clinton in the popular vote. Its not exact or perfect, but close enough an the polls correctly predicted the winner in the national popular vote. I don't think the polls have been wrong about the national popular vote in decades.

Trump can't win the popular vote which makes his chances of winning the electoral college highly unlikely despite the FLUKE of 2016. Over 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote is the winner of the electoral college over the past 200 years.

Hitlery didn't win the popular vote either.

You're a liar and ignorant beyond words.

Check this link out: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

As you can see from the link:

Hillary Clinton: 65,853,652 votes - 48.02% points

Donald Trump: 62,985,134 votes - 45.93% points

 

[evenflow1969]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

polls are a joke this far awayh. I would not read much into them.

 

[U2Edge]

The only thing that could favor Trump is if voter turnout for the election is depressed because less people show up at voting booths because of the virus and the mail in ballot system is unable to take up the slack. That is probably Trump's only hope at this point. Some form of voter suppression, by a combination of scaring people from going to the polls, and interfering with the mail in ballot vote process.

Either way, will find out how election turnout was after all the data is finally counted for both mail in ballots and voting at the polling booths.

 

[U2Edge]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

polls are a joke this far awayh. I would not read much into them.

1. The election is not far away.
2. Polling does and has in the past mattered this far out to a certain degree.
3. What is going to change in the next three months about the economy and the coronavirus? The economy is in recession with high unemployment, and the coronavirus is getting worse.

 

[Mikeoxenormous]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

Good then since Joe Biden will win in a landslide, you dumbass mother fuckers, who are going to put a Rich, Old, White Guy into office, should just sit back and dont vote....Why waste gasoline, when you know who the winner is already..

 

[Camp]

Biden will lose all of this after the debates.

That could depend on how much drugs are given to Trump and how obvious his drug consumption is. Also, how many lies he is exposed for, especially if exposed by Biden himself. How often should Biden call him a liar?

 

[Rev.Hellh0und]

Biden will lose all of this after the debates.

That could depend on how much drugs are given to Trump and how obvious his drug consumption is. Also, how many lies he is exposed for, especially if exposed by Biden himself. How often should Biden call him a liar?

Biden won't remember what he's running for.

 

[Claudette]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

Wonder if those are the same Polls that told us all Hitlery would win in 2016??

Anyone who believes polls is dumber than a box of rocks. Guess that you. LOL

 

[Camp]

Biden will lose all of this after the debates.

That could depend on how much drugs are given to Trump and how obvious his drug consumption is. Also, how many lies he is exposed for, especially if exposed by Biden himself. How often should Biden call him a liar?

Biden won't remember what he's running for.

Ya, you fools tried selling your similar nonsense about Hillary four years ago and a few days after the elections she was caught hiking on a forested mountain by other hikers. Today she is in better shape both physically and mentally than Donnie Dolittle.

 

[U2Edge]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

Good then since Joe Biden will win in a landslide, you dumbass mother fuckers, who are going to put a Rich, Old, White Guy into office, should just sit back and dont vote....Why waste gasoline, when you know who the winner is already..

I won't be wasting gasoline since I'm voting by mail. Also, no one said Joe Biden would win in a landslide. I said his popular vote win margin over Trump in the election will be larger than what Hillary had over Trump. Hillary won by 2.09% points in the national popular vote in 2016. I think BIDEN will win by at least 3 or 4 percentage points in the popular vote over Trump.

 

[kaz]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

I think you're right. The election is in the bag. You can go ahead and relax now, it's already over

 

[U2Edge]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

Wonder if those are the same Polls that told us all Hitlery would win in 2016??

Anyone who believes polls is dumber than a box of rocks. Guess that you. LOL

It was predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the national popular vote and she did win it, by 2.09% points. Its been decades since the average of the polls for the national popular vote before an election were wrong about the winner of the national popular vote.

 

[pyetro]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

I dare you to do Biden vs Obama in July.

 

[kaz]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

The part that they are usually right and correctly predicted who would win the popular vote in 2016. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.09% points

There is no such thing as the "popular vote." It doesn't exist other than as an informal number that some people calculated and put out there. In this country we use the electoral college:

Constitution of the United States

View the full United States Constitution, Bill of Rights, and all Amendments online. Additional summaries and explanations.

constitutionus.com

You can't take data for an election based on a set of criteria that voters knew the election was based on (EV) and conclude that if you changed the rules and use the same data it would turn out the same way.

1) The campaigns campaigned for the EV not the PV. For example, where they ran ads and where they went to influence voters

2) There are actually tens of millions of Republicans in places like California who knew their vote was worthless in the EV. That wouldn't have been true if we used the PV

I can't believe you don't know this BASIC information. Didn't exactly go to college, did you?

 

[U2Edge]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

I dare you to do Biden vs Obama in July.

Well, that was 8 years ago. I don't know if I'll be able to find REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of polling for July 2012 and who led that month, either Romney or Obama.

 

[Camp]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

The part that they are usually right and correctly predicted who would win the popular vote in 2016. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.09% points

There is no such thing as the "popular vote." It doesn't exist other than as an informal number that some people calculated and put out there. In this country we use the electoral college:

Constitution of the United States

View the full United States Constitution, Bill of Rights, and all Amendments online. Additional summaries and explanations.

constitutionus.com

You can't take data for an election based on a set of criteria that voters knew the election was based on (EV) and conclude that if you changed the rules and use the same data it would turn out the same way.

1) The campaigns campaigned for the EV not the PV. For example, where they ran ads and where they went to influence voters

2) There are actually tens of millions of Republicans in places like California who knew their vote was worthless in the EV. That wouldn't have been true if we used the PV

I can't believe you don't know this BASIC information. Didn't exactly go to college, did you?

How do EC electors get selected? Does it have anything to do with the popular vote?

 

[kaz]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

The part that they are usually right and correctly predicted who would win the popular vote in 2016. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.09% points

There is no such thing as the "popular vote." It doesn't exist other than as an informal number that some people calculated and put out there. In this country we use the electoral college:

Constitution of the United States

View the full United States Constitution, Bill of Rights, and all Amendments online. Additional summaries and explanations.

constitutionus.com

You can't take data for an election based on a set of criteria that voters knew the election was based on (EV) and conclude that if you changed the rules and use the same data it would turn out the same way.

1) The campaigns campaigned for the EV not the PV. For example, where they ran ads and where they went to influence voters

2) There are actually tens of millions of Republicans in places like California who knew their vote was worthless in the EV. That wouldn't have been true if we used the PV

I can't believe you don't know this BASIC information. Didn't exactly go to college, did you?

How do EC electors get selected? Does it have anything to do with the popular vote?

No. The national Popular vote, what he referred to, has nothing to do with ECs being elected.

What you are doing is changing what he said, which is a national popular vote, and changing it to sound like he meant it at the State level.

Just FYI the logical fallacy you just committed is called equivocation