JohnDB
Diamond Member
- Jun 16, 2021
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1/2 Currency exchange rates with Russia, a roundup of major currency rates against the crashing Ruble - and why this matters. Context: A countries currency value is an indicator of the health of it’s economy. A general view it that if a country is exporting lots of goods and services, that creates a demand for the #currency, and providing the country isn’t printing and circulating more of it’s currency - the value of the currency rises. If there is no demand for the currency, because there isn’t sufficient export and trade to stimulate the demand, or other countries won’t deal in your currency - then the value of the currency falls. Russia is a net exporter traditionally, there was a strong demand for its main exports of oil and gas before the illegal and murderous invasion of Ukraine. So how has the #Ruble performed over the past year against other main currencies? #USD / Ruble 12 Months DEVALUED 62% (Up from 59 Rubles per USD to 97 per USD) 6 Months DEVALUED 33% #Euro / Ruble 12 Months DEVALUED 75% (Up from 60 Rubles per Euro to 106 Rubles per Euro) 6 Months DEVALUED 36% #Chinese Yuan / Ruble 12 Months -DEVALUED 53% (Up from 8.8 Yuan to 13.5 Yuan to the Ruble) 6 Months DEVALUED 28% #IndianRupee / Ruble 12 Months DEVALUED 58% (Up from 0.75 Rupees per Ruble to 1.17 Rupees per Ruble) 6 Months DEVALUED 33% Next: why the Rubles decline matters in these 4 main currencies
Yeah.
Apparently the price supports for the Ruble are over. It's going to free fall as time goes by. Russia is going to need a new currency as a medium of exchange. Especially with their current debt load and trade deficits
Because they use a fiat currency their currency is linked with their GDP...which continues to fall as raw materials needed for high GDP contributing goods are unavailable to them despite Khazicstan's and Chinese best efforts.
Where this really matters is in their troops and nationalized workforce.
Soldiers not getting paid on a timely basis tends to create chaos within the ranks. They become pirates and brigands. Munition making workers not getting paid stop showing up for work. Trash collectors also stop picking up trash. It only gets worse from there.
Life in Russian cities is going to be extremely difficult and it going to seem to happen suddenly to the average person. (Currently it's difficult but not impossible) Those few living in rural communities will be the most insulated from a collapsing Ruble as they have been bartering with goods instead of Rubles for decades.
There's some speculation about what currency Russia will use. The Yuan is the current favorite but I tend to think that they will issue a "new" Ruble because their ego won't let them do otherwise. However their lack of transparency in their banking system will be the new Ruble's undoing.