Great Depression Coming - Massive Deflation of US Dollar.

[DarthTrader]

Oil just won't stay down. At this point - Biden's policies are not helping but they no longer are the principal driver of inflation either. This problem is much older than that - going back to Obama. It's the result of 12 years of "easy money" pumping the US full of too many dollars.

First the evidence of break out:

Next - here is the 60 year historical chart that basically shows the situation:

For the US to return to historical average oil prices we have to lose 50% of our money supply, oil has to 2x or economy has to slow-down 50% or some combination of these.

None of those scenarios are any good for the US.

IMPORTANT: the money supply peaked under Obama's last year. Trump was reducing the money supply until COVID.

Trump was legitimately stimulating the economy while Obama inflated it.

Biden/Democrats blew it up to the moon.

 

[Mikeoxenormous]

Oil just won't stay down. At this point - Biden's policies are not helping but they no longer are the principal driver of inflation either. This problem is much older than that - going back to Obama. It's the result of 12 years of "easy money" pumping the US full of too many dollars.

First the evidence of break out:

View attachment 649066

Next - here is the 60 year historical chart that basically shows the situation:

View attachment 649069

For the US to return to historical average oil prices we have to lose 50% of our money supply, oil has to 2x or economy has to slow-down 50% or some combination of these.

None of those scenarios are any good for the US.

IMPORTANT: the money supply peaked under Obama's last year. Trump was reducing the money supply until COVID.

Trump was legitimately stimulating the economy while Obama inflated it.

Biden/Democrats blew it up to the moon.

Well, once it goes into a Depression, maybe all the illegals and their anchors will had back across the southern border..we can only hope.

 

[skews13]

Oil just won't stay down. At this point - Biden's policies are not helping but they no longer are the principal driver of inflation either. This problem is much older than that - going back to Obama. It's the result of 12 years of "easy money" pumping the US full of too many dollars.

First the evidence of break out:

View attachment 649066

Next - here is the 60 year historical chart that basically shows the situation:

View attachment 649069

For the US to return to historical average oil prices we have to lose 50% of our money supply, oil has to 2x or economy has to slow-down 50% or some combination of these.

None of those scenarios are any good for the US.

IMPORTANT: the money supply peaked under Obama's last year. Trump was reducing the money supply until COVID.

Trump was legitimately stimulating the economy while Obama inflated it.

Biden/Democrats blew it up to the moon.

Trump created the worst growth economy since 1929.

GDP growth under Trump was worst since Hoover

The former president’s claim that he created the ‘greatest economy in the world’ is a fantasy

www.independent.co.uk

The dollar is up 7%, highest since March 2020

Why the U.S. dollar is strengthening

Policy by the central bank, interest rate differentials and a risk haven move into U.S. dollar-denominated assets are driving up the dollar against major trading currencies.

realeconomy.rsmus.com

Trump was the worst President in the history of the country, and it isn't even close. A criminal, a coward, and a traitor in any way you can define it.

 

[22lcidw]

Trump created the worst growth economy since 1929.

GDP growth under Trump was worst since Hoover

The former president’s claim that he created the ‘greatest economy in the world’ is a fantasy

www.independent.co.uk

The dollar is up 7%, highest since March 2020

Why the U.S. dollar is strengthening

Policy by the central bank, interest rate differentials and a risk haven move into U.S. dollar-denominated assets are driving up the dollar against major trading currencies.

realeconomy.rsmus.com

Trump was the worst President in the history of the country, and it isn't even close. A criminal, a coward, and a traitor in any way you can define it.

Biden is creating the dark ages! Its his job to end the modern Rome. The rise of the American Republic to the decline and fall of the American Empire.

 

[DarthTrader]

Trump created the worst growth economy since 1929.

GDP growth under Trump was worst since Hoover

The former president’s claim that he created the ‘greatest economy in the world’ is a fantasy

www.independent.co.uk

The dollar is up 7%, highest since March 2020

Why the U.S. dollar is strengthening

Policy by the central bank, interest rate differentials and a risk haven move into U.S. dollar-denominated assets are driving up the dollar against major trading currencies.

realeconomy.rsmus.com

Trump was the worst President in the history of the country, and it isn't even close. A criminal, a coward, and a traitor in any way you can define it.

People like you are why Democrats are stupid and poor, you know nothing about money.

The dollar isn't strengthening lol. The dollar is up against other currencies but as far as a basket of commodities the dollar is getting its ass kicked.

If you can eat Euros sure...the Dollar is strong. Stuff some Japanese Yen in your gas tank next time you fill up.

Dollar eats shit against Oil price.

Dollar eats shit against Wheat.

Dollar eats shit against copper.

So tell me again, where's the Dollar strengthening? Gonna stuff some Mexican Pesos in your electrical wall sockets? Does it work like redstone contraptions in Minecraft?

 

[Mac1958]

Technical analysis of commodities is like throwing darts.

 

[DarthTrader]

Technical analysis of commodities is like throwing darts.

This isn't technical analysis. It's comparative pricing. LOLOLOLOL. I don't really need lectures from boobs like you anyway. Technicians and strategists such as myself make money hand over fist doing analysis.

Which this isn't. As stated, this is HISTORICAL COMPARATIVE PRICING.

It's just sad you think you know what you're talking about.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

This isn't technical analysis. It's comparative pricing. LOLOLOLOL. I don't really need lectures from boobs like you anyway. Technicians and strategists such as myself make money hand over fist doing analysis.

Which this isn't. As stated, this is HISTORICAL COMPARATIVE PRICING.

It's just sad you think you know what you're talking about.

Do you still think Russia's money supply is shrinking?
Still think Russia has deflation, not inflation?

 

[DarthTrader]

Do you still think Russia's money supply is shrinking?
Still think Russia has deflation, not inflation?

You're still a moron who is confused to think that prices and money supply are the same thing. Does your dumb ass think that Japan is "inflationary" when its Yen is losing value against the dollar day over day?

Japan is a classic case of deflation in a rising price environment. So is Russia.

Japan Finally Gets Inflation—but the Wrong Kind

After decades of fighting deflation, global price rises are causing political worries.

foreignpolicy.com

This explains the situation in Japan which if you understand it, can apply it to Russia and understand the nature of Russia's deflation.

China is also deflating its currency as it attempts to track the US Dollar. Which is ironic, because as the world's largest exporter (account surplus) it needs to inflate the currency to balance the global payment system.

That it and Russia (the two largest exporters) have not; exhibits a collusion that seems intended to collapse the system in the same manner the US and France accidentally destroyed the global monetary system in 1930.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c11482/c11482.pdf

I know so much more than you about all of this you literally should just print this out, roll it up, and stuff it up your ass.

 

[johngaltshrugged]

Trump created the worst growth economy since 1929.

GDP growth under Trump was worst since Hoover

The former president’s claim that he created the ‘greatest economy in the world’ is a fantasy

www.independent.co.uk

The dollar is up 7%, highest since March 2020

Why the U.S. dollar is strengthening

Policy by the central bank, interest rate differentials and a risk haven move into U.S. dollar-denominated assets are driving up the dollar against major trading currencies.

realeconomy.rsmus.com

Trump was the worst President in the history of the country, and it isn't even close. A criminal, a coward, and a traitor in any way you can define it.

You might even believe this BS.
Pre-dempanic DT had a great economy. One of the best ever despite what you were told.
Pre-dempanic is when the dollar was strongest.
Ya'll crack me up.
DT is driving us straight down the road, you reach over, grab the wheel, shoot us off a cliff & then say DT can't drive

 

[DarthTrader]

Do you still think Russia's money supply is shrinking?
Still think Russia has deflation, not inflation?

Simply put, the problem is that morons like you don't know what deflation and inflation actually are and why their definitions matter.

 

[DarthTrader]

You might even believe this BS.
Pre-dempanic DT had a great economy. One of the best ever despite what you were told.
Pre-dempanic is when the dollar was strongest.
Ya'll crack me up.
DT is driving us straight down the road, you reach over, grab the wheel, shoot us off a cliff & then say DT can't drive

Just like a hysterical woman would act. Democrats are hysterical women.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

You're still a moron who is confused to think that prices and money supply are the same thing. Does your dumb ass think that Japan is "inflationary" when its Yen is losing value against the dollar day over day?

Japan is a classic case of deflation in a rising price environment. So is Russia.

Japan Finally Gets Inflation—but the Wrong Kind

After decades of fighting deflation, global price rises are causing political worries.

foreignpolicy.com

This explains the situation in Japan which if you understand it, can apply it to Russia and understand the nature of Russia's deflation.

China is also deflating its currency as it attempts to track the US Dollar. Which is ironic, because as the world's largest exporter (account surplus) it needs to inflate the currency to balance the global payment system.

That it and Russia (the two largest exporters) have not; exhibits a collusion that seems intended to collapse the system in the same manner the US and France accidentally destroyed the global monetary system in 1930.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c11482/c11482.pdf

I know so much more than you about all of this you literally should just print this out, roll it up, and stuff it up your ass.

Japan is a classic case of deflation in a rising price environment. So is Russia.

Hilarious!

What makes Russia's situation "deflation"?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Simply put, the problem is that morons like you don't know what deflation and inflation actually are and why their definitions matter.

Please, share the real definitions with the class.

 

[DarthTrader]

Please, share the real definitions with the class.

As I've said before, "Inflation is everywhere a monetary phenomenon". The converse is also true. Milton Friedman.

Inflation and Deflation have nothing to do with prices although at dramatic times in history prices have followed.

But you can deflate the money supply and have rising prices - like in Japan and Russia.

You can inflate the money supply and also have falling prices - like the US experienced from 2008 to 2019 with oil prices etc.

The US has massively inflated its money supply since 2008 - while many countries like China, Japan and Russia have not.

Money supply is a function of velocity, gold valuation, and oil price.

A way to illustrate this is the Federal Reserve Capital vs. Assets.

FED Reserve Capital are predominantly Gold and bank reserves the FED requires of banks.

Assets are the printed money (generalized as M2) that is circulating.

I went with Capital vs. Assets because for banks "assets vs. liabilities" is confusing - for someone like you probably very confusing.

A bank's assets are debt, while its liabilities is capital (the thing that capitalizes a bank such as deposits).

So for the FED that is deposits (reserve requirements) and gold.

Which is why the FED has two primary deflators. Gold price and bank reserve requirements. For instance in 1937, battling what it perceived to be inflation because of rising prices - the FED raised bank reserve requirements in November 1936 and destroyed the economy leading to the 1937 crash and recession.

Did the Reserve Requirement Increases of 1936–1937 Reduce Bank Lending? Evidence from a Natural Experiment

The recession of 1936–37 was one of the most severe recessions in economic activity in the history of the United States. This sharp but short-lived recession occurred while the U.S. economy was recovering from the Great Depression of 1929–1932. After expanding for 50 months, from March of 1933...

blogs.worldbank.org

This was seen as a gross error of the FED in hindsight.

But, at the time, rising prices and rising loans lent meant the FED thought we were experiencing inflation. Truth is there was not enough currency in the system, we were still experiencing deflation, and so when the FED activated one of its deflators (reserve requirements) raising capital for the FED, it crushed the economy.

Another deflator is interest rates.

Hence it's pretty obvious when a country has positive real interest rates it's deflationary.

Hence Russia is very obviously experiencing deflation.

So is China but for different reasons.

There's a reason this is important. Trade Surplus countries are supposed to inflate. Trade Deficit countries are supposed to deflate.

The US is inflating and Russia and China are deflating, so are Japan and Germany (both export surpluses also).

This is destroying liquidity, and we've been stuck in this crisis pattern since 2008. Now the crisis is reaching a boil.

Hence I told you - read about how France and the US accidentally blew up the global economy in 1930.

 

[DarthTrader]

Oh and lastly the oil price.

So if you print money but throw it in a fire did you really print it?

Oil functions as a kind of fire for money which is why it is so closely tied to the US Dollar. First - it acts as a defacto currency being priced in dollars only. All Oil is priced in dollars, period.

Second, if the US prints more money, oil price will go up, and that money gets burned up in oil consumption. So there's where this curve comes from:

The curve is remarkably stable because it's driven by monetary and fiscal policy (US specifically).

Let me show you how an unstable market looks like for 50 years.

Notice how just 40 years prior and you can't even see the perturbations any more they are so dwarfed by the scale of inflation pumped into the S&P? That is because there is a positive correlation between S&P and money supply. Where as, because oil is consumed it has a negative correlation. Price goes up, it consumes money supply. Prices of S&P go up and it doesn't do anything to the money supply. It's intangible.

This nature is absolutely critical to understand if you want to succeed in the markets. Look at the beating heart of monetary policy here:

Huge credit cycles (business cycles) and very rhythmic. Care to take a guess why so rythmic?

Hint - Presidential elections.

The TLT represents the 20 year treasuries, their price goes up as yields go down. Historically, around presidential elections, the Fed is pressured to lower yields and bond prices rise. That "rhythm" is so fucking obvious, as you can see.

 

[ConserveGuy]

The Biden Depression. Been keeping track of it since last year. It's real.

 

[DarthTrader]

Let me point out the TLT again but more obviously:

See my point - you think it's by accident bonds just "go up" on Presidential election cycles? LOL

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

As I've said before, "Inflation is everywhere a monetary phenomenon". The converse is also true. Milton Friedman.

Inflation and Deflation have nothing to do with prices although at dramatic times in history prices have followed.

But you can deflate the money supply and have rising prices - like in Japan and Russia.

You can inflate the money supply and also have falling prices - like the US experienced from 2008 to 2019 with oil prices etc.

The US has massively inflated its money supply since 2008 - while many countries like China, Japan and Russia have not.

Money supply is a function of velocity, gold valuation, and oil price.

A way to illustrate this is the Federal Reserve Capital vs. Assets.

FED Reserve Capital are predominantly Gold and bank reserves the FED requires of banks.

Assets are the printed money (generalized as M2) that is circulating.

I went with Capital vs. Assets because for banks "assets vs. liabilities" is confusing - for someone like you probably very confusing.

A bank's assets are debt, while its liabilities is capital (the thing that capitalizes a bank such as deposits).

So for the FED that is deposits (reserve requirements) and gold.

Which is why the FED has two primary deflators. Gold price and bank reserve requirements. For instance in 1937, battling what it perceived to be inflation because of rising prices - the FED raised bank reserve requirements in November 1936 and destroyed the economy leading to the 1937 crash and recession.

Did the Reserve Requirement Increases of 1936–1937 Reduce Bank Lending? Evidence from a Natural Experiment

The recession of 1936–37 was one of the most severe recessions in economic activity in the history of the United States. This sharp but short-lived recession occurred while the U.S. economy was recovering from the Great Depression of 1929–1932. After expanding for 50 months, from March of 1933...

blogs.worldbank.org

This was seen as a gross error of the FED in hindsight.

But, at the time, rising prices and rising loans lent meant the FED thought we were experiencing inflation. Truth is there was not enough currency in the system, we were still experiencing deflation, and so when the FED activated one of its deflators (reserve requirements) raising capital for the FED, it crushed the economy.

Another deflator is interest rates.

Hence it's pretty obvious when a country has positive real interest rates it's deflationary.

Hence Russia is very obviously experiencing deflation.

So is China but for different reasons.

There's a reason this is important. Trade Surplus countries are supposed to inflate. Trade Deficit countries are supposed to deflate.

The US is inflating and Russia and China are deflating, so are Japan and Germany (both export surpluses also).

This is destroying liquidity, and we've been stuck in this crisis pattern since 2008. Now the crisis is reaching a boil.

Hence I told you - read about how France and the US accidentally blew up the global economy in 1930.

As I've said before, "Inflation is everywhere a monetary phenomenon". The converse is also true.

What's the converse?

Inflation and Deflation have nothing to do with prices although at dramatic times in history prices have followed.

Hilarious!

But you can deflate the money supply and have rising prices - like in Japan and Russia.

How do you know they're both deflating their money supply?

You can inflate the money supply and also have falling prices - like the US experienced from 2008 to 2019 with oil prices etc.

You're measuring inflation by looking at one product? Why?

Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma | FRED | St. Louis Fed

View the daily price of the crude stream traded at Cushing, Oklahoma, which is used as a benchmark in oil pricing.

fred.stlouisfed.org

That doesn't look like "deflating prices". It was up, down, up, down, up, etc.

The US has massively inflated its money supply since 2008 - while many countries like China, Japan and Russia have not.

Post China's money supply since 2008.

Money supply is a function of velocity, gold valuation, and oil price.

It's none of those.

Assets are the printed money (generalized as M2) that is circulating.

FRNs are a liability of the Fed, not an asset of the Fed.

A bank's assets are debt, while its liabilities is capital (the thing that capitalizes a bank such as deposits).

No, a bank's assets are assets, like their balance at the Fed, their cash on hand and their loans, like mortgages and car loans.

Deposits aren't a bank's capital, they're a bank's liabilities.

Hence it's pretty obvious when a country has positive real interest rates it's deflationary.

Historically, countries almost always had positive real rates. And positive inflation.
Kind of the opposite of deflationary.

Hence Russia is very obviously experiencing deflation.

Wrong. Obviously.

There's a reason this is important. Trade Surplus countries are supposed to inflate. Trade Deficit countries are supposed to deflate.

That was true under a gold or silver standard, why do you feel it is true today?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Second, if the US prints more money, oil price will go up, and that money gets burned up in oil consumption. So there's where this curve comes from:

The curve is remarkably stable because it's driven by monetary and fiscal policy (US specifically).

Toro

Can you tell me what this guy is smoking?