Global warming?

[Old Rocks]

No, Pattycake, not the same data or methodologies.

 

[Old Rocks]

The Hockey Stick is Accurate « Oxford Kevin

 

[CrusaderFrank]

How come there's no "Global Warming" today in NY?

Jeez. Did it move with the Jet Stream?

 

[polarbear]

How come there's no "Global Warming" today in NY?

Jeez. Did it move with the Jet Stream?

What kind of answer can You expect from an idiot like that:

The Hockey Stick is Accurate « Oxford Kevin

The paper “Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries” by Mann, Bradley and Hughes published in 1998 (MBH 98) brought together in one study a lot of material from ice cores, tree rings and corals and produced the first version of the Hockey Stick graph.

Really ...???
Take a look at the document they submitted:

“Trick”
57. In his submission, Peter Taylor, author of Chill,81 states that:
The tree ring data did not match the model expectation (ie the ‘hockey stick’ pattern of a sudden rise at the end of the period). Rather than admit this, the team-workers discuss using Michael Mann’s ‘trick’ of replacing the offending tree-ring data and using instrumental data in its place in a spliced graph.82 58. UEA interpreted the use of the word “trick” differently:
as for the (now notorious) word ‘trick’, so deeply appealing to the media, this has been richly misinterpreted and quoted out of context. It was used in an informal email, discussing the difficulties of statistical presentation.it is used in the informal sense of ‘the best way of doing something’. It does not mean a ‘ruse’ or method of deception. In context it is obvious that In this case it was ‘the trick or knack’ of constructing a statistical illustration which would combine the most reliable proxy and instrumental evidence of temperature trends.
59. These interpretations of the colloquial meaning of “trick” have been accepted by even the staunchest of critics:
Lord Lawson of Blaby: The sinister thing is not the word ‘trick’. In their [UEA’s] own evidence they say that what they mean by ‘trick’ is the best way of doing something.
Chairman: You accept that?
Lord Lawson of Blaby: I accept that.84

And who is "Lord Lawson" of Blabbermouth..?...:

Rt Hon Lord Lawson of Blaby, Chairman, and Dr Benny Peiser, Director, Global Warming Policy Foundation;

The only idiots who still accept the hockey stick are the ones who`ve been whacked over the head by Lord Blabbermouth`s stupid stick.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

See the Global warming? It's right there under my pinkie!

 

[bobgnote]

When you are a RightWingFaggotThatShovesClausesTogether, you are trying, to imitate fast-talking Zionist Jews, from Yew Nork or LA. Come on! Jews are smarter, than you RWFs. You know it, so you are conspiring, against English usages, which are too hard, for you retards, to master.

And then, along comes black Obamney, and he imitates guys, like Al Gore, so his January 2008 interview, with the SF Chronicle advocates cap-and-trade, while admitting, how "my policy will increase energy prices." What an ASSHOLE, folks!

No wonder President black Obamney never really produced an ENERGY POLICY.

There aren't enough resources, in the economic or funding systems, so DDD-rats are hedging, against a day, coming, in November 2012, when the US budget fails. But all they are doing is screwing around, with restrictions and delays. That's DDD-rats!

The DDD-rats have to cut Israel and the drug war, and they are too owned, by AIPAC, oil, coal, and Republicans, to make the cuts.

Black Obamney imitates Al Gore and Bill Clinton. He'd like to end up, selling books and lectures, to DDDs, like Clinton does this. So black Obamney ups cap-and-trade, without ending the drug war OR getting CO2-neutral biomass research, in good order, FIRST, but hey! Black Obamney is an ATTORNEY.

But then, black Obamney cuts loose, from trying to give Gitmo, back to Cuba, he copies white Obamneycare, he kills with drones, he busts pot clubs, he signs the NDAA, his ATF copies Republican sting ops, like Op.Wide Receiver and Project Gunrunner, to do Op.FF, so what happens? This fucks up, so black Obamney has to copy Nixon, to stonewall, with white Obamney.

Black Obamney is stonewalling climate change, since 2008, Congress, since 2012, re Op.FF, and the Bradley Manning defense, since 2010 or so.

White Obamney is stonewalling, about Mormonism, Bullygate, and Bain. I guess we get to see his bitchin' report cards. He is SO SMART, he wants alll the votes he can get, from RightWingFaggotsThatShoveClausesTogether.

But black Obamney also wants THOSE votes, since if he blows off smart people, and he chases votes, from DDDs and Republicans, the DDD-rats can set up a lot of media gridlocks and boondoggles.

People who might vote for black Obamney aren't good enough, for black Obamney. So he keeps sucking, like it's trucking. No, black Obamney, sucking is not TRUCKING.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

When you are a RightWingFaggotThatShovesClausesTogether, you are trying, to imitate fast-talking Zionist Jews, from Yew Nork or LA. Come on! Jews are smarter, than you RWFs. You know it, so you are conspiring, against English usages, which are too hard, for you retards, to master.

And then, along comes black Obamney, and he imitates guys, like Al Gore, so his January 2008 interview, with the SF Chronicle advocates cap-and-trade, while admitting, how "my policy will increase energy prices." What an ASSHOLE, folks!

There aren't enough resources, in the economic or funding systems, so DDD-rats are hedging, against a day, coming, in November 2012, when the US budget fails.

The DDD-rats have to cut Israel and the drug war, and they are too owned, by AIPAC, oil, coal, and Republicans, to make the cuts.

Black Obamney imitates Al Gore and Bill Clinton. He'd like to end up, selling books and lectures, to DDDs, like Clinton does this. So black Obamney ups cap-and-trade, without ending the drug war OR getting CO2-neutral biomass research, in good order, FIRST, but hey! Black Obamney is an ATTORNEY.

But then, black Obamney cuts loose, from trying to give Gitmo, back to Cuba, he copies white Obamneycare, he kills with drones, he busts pot clubs, he signs the NDAA, his ATF copies Republican sting ops, like Op.Wide Receiver and Project Gunrunner, to do Op.FF, so what happens? This fucks up, so black Obamney has to copy Nixon, to stonewall, with white Obamney.

Black Obamney is stonewalling climate change, since 2008, Congress, since 2012, re Op.FF, and the Bradley Manning defense, since 2010 or so.

White Obamney is stonewalling, about Mormonism, Bullygate, and Bain. I guess we get to see his bitchin' report cards. He is SO SMART, he wants alll the votes he can get, from RightWingFaggotsThatShoveClausesTogether.

But black Obamney also wants THOSE votes. People who might vote for black Obamney aren't good enough, for black Obamney. So he keeps sucking, like it's trucking. No, black Obamney, sucking is not TRUCKING.

And that is why my Ignore list is vacant.

Can you imagine missing that?! That's the Liberal Intellectual Elite talking

 

[westwall]

You silly stupid ass. Those tree rings prove only that it was warmer in Finland at that time. It was not warmer for most of the rest of the world.

Here is a real study from real scientists.

Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia

And Manns study only proved that it was warmer in that ONE tree within that ONE grove of trees. Interesting how you give that all sorts of credence.

Multiple differant kinds of proxies from many studies have all supported Mann's graph. Simple fact.

Really? Present them. Mullers analysis certainly doesn't.

 

[westwall]

When you are a RightWingFaggotThatShovesClausesTogether, you are trying, to imitate fast-talking Zionist Jews, from Yew Nork or LA. Come on! Jews are smarter, than you RWFs. You know it, so you are conspiring, against English usages, which are too hard, for you retards, to master.

And then, along comes black Obamney, and he imitates guys, like Al Gore, so his January 2008 interview, with the SF Chronicle advocates cap-and-trade, while admitting, how "my policy will increase energy prices." What an ASSHOLE, folks!

There aren't enough resources, in the economic or funding systems, so DDD-rats are hedging, against a day, coming, in November 2012, when the US budget fails.

The DDD-rats have to cut Israel and the drug war, and they are too owned, by AIPAC, oil, coal, and Republicans, to make the cuts.

Black Obamney imitates Al Gore and Bill Clinton. He'd like to end up, selling books and lectures, to DDDs, like Clinton does this. So black Obamney ups cap-and-trade, without ending the drug war OR getting CO2-neutral biomass research, in good order, FIRST, but hey! Black Obamney is an ATTORNEY.

But then, black Obamney cuts loose, from trying to give Gitmo, back to Cuba, he copies white Obamneycare, he kills with drones, he busts pot clubs, he signs the NDAA, his ATF copies Republican sting ops, like Op.Wide Receiver and Project Gunrunner, to do Op.FF, so what happens? This fucks up, so black Obamney has to copy Nixon, to stonewall, with white Obamney.

Black Obamney is stonewalling climate change, since 2008, Congress, since 2012, re Op.FF, and the Bradley Manning defense, since 2010 or so.

White Obamney is stonewalling, about Mormonism, Bullygate, and Bain. I guess we get to see his bitchin' report cards. He is SO SMART, he wants alll the votes he can get, from RightWingFaggotsThatShoveClausesTogether.

But black Obamney also wants THOSE votes. People who might vote for black Obamney aren't good enough, for black Obamney. So he keeps sucking, like it's trucking. No, black Obamney, sucking is not TRUCKING.

And that is why my Ignore list is vacant.

Can you imagine missing that?! That's the Liberal Intellectual Elite talking

No, that's a brainless dilfod talking.

 

[bobgnote]

Wally, we have to Jew those ANIMALS! Hurry! Don't be waiting eight lines, to get'r'done; we need you to get Jewing some animals, before everybody realizes they don't really use chainsaws.

Here, Wallybitch! It's Animal Global Warming:

BAD kitty! The next thing this fucker will make will be a hockey stick.

Time for us to have-a-tequila and blame some animals, right, Wally?

Those Chinese animals all went to CAL or UCLA, out in Cali, so we can get to know some of them, but I bet they won't want us screwing around, with Israel, Wally, so something has to happen, and it's ANIMAL GLOBAL WARMING. Start Jewing them down, today, or tomorrow, they'll be Palis.

 

[TakeAStepBack]

Bob, why are you still here, bob?

I thought you were going to save the planet?

 

[Trakar]

Out of the 1200 tornadoes reported in 2011 ---- these few storms account for the vast majority of the cost and injuries.. And there hasn't been a targeted assault on populated areas like this in one year in recorded weather history...

Increase the intensity and number of storms, and you decrease the odds of storms striking densely populated areas and doing lots of damage.

As for whether or not we can lay any particular storm or even storm season solely at the feet of climate change, I would argue against that practice. Much as with hurricanes and other major weather events there are simply too many variables in any given system to say compellingly that it is primarily due to the effects and impacts of any one particular variable. That said, we are beginning to see an apparent piling up of such extreme weather events, and this piling up is consistent with climate change projections and understandings. It will be another decade or so before I would be confident in our our retrospective abilities to properly evaluate the current decade, where we can look back at averaged trending and see how well the projected and the observed match up over the current decade.

As for the connection with climate change:

"A decade of weather extremes" - http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/files/10-ans-dextremes-climatiques.pdf

"[FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B]Transient response of severe thunderstorm forcing to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations" - http://www.eas.purdue.edu/earthsystem/Trapp_GRL_09.pdf[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B]http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/Presentations/extremesCAT_web.pdf[/FONT][/FONT]
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[CrusaderFrank]

Out of the 1200 tornadoes reported in 2011 ---- these few storms account for the vast majority of the cost and injuries.. And there hasn't been a targeted assault on populated areas like this in one year in recorded weather history...

Increase the intensity and number of storms, and you decrease the odds of storms striking densely populated areas and doing lots of damage.

As for whether or not we can lay any particular storm or even storm season solely at the feet of climate change, I would argue against that practice. Much as with hurricanes and other major weather events there are simply too many variables in any given system to say compellingly that it is primarily due to the effects and impacts of any one particular variable. That said, we are beginning to see an apparent piling up of such extreme weather events, and this piling up is consistent with climate change projections and understandings. It will be another decade or so before I would be confident in our our retrospective abilities to properly evaluate the current decade, where we can look back at averaged trending and see how well the projected and the observed match up over the current decade.

As for the connection with climate change:

"A decade of weather extremes" - http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/files/10-ans-dextremes-climatiques.pdf

"[FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B]Transient response of severe thunderstorm forcing to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations" - http://www.eas.purdue.edu/earthsystem/Trapp_GRL_09.pdf[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B]http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/Presentations/extremesCAT_web.pdf[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][/FONT][/FONT]
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"...there are simply too many variables in any given system to say compellingly that it is primarily due to the effects and impacts of any one particular variable..."

the first honest statement to ever spring forth from a member of Al Gore's AGW Cult.

but then it degrades into this:

there are simply too many variables in any given system to say compellingly that it is primarily due to the effects and impacts of any one particular variable, but all we know for certain is that a wisp of CO2 is melting the ice caps, turning the oceans acidic and creating a record number of storms

 

[TakeAStepBack]

What's the matter, Frank? Is the doublespeak dizzying?

 

[westwall]

Out of the 1200 tornadoes reported in 2011 ---- these few storms account for the vast majority of the cost and injuries.. And there hasn't been a targeted assault on populated areas like this in one year in recorded weather history...

Increase the intensity and number of storms, and you decrease the odds of storms striking densely populated areas and doing lots of damage.

As for whether or not we can lay any particular storm or even storm season solely at the feet of climate change, I would argue against that practice. Much as with hurricanes and other major weather events there are simply too many variables in any given system to say compellingly that it is primarily due to the effects and impacts of any one particular variable. That said, we are beginning to see an apparent piling up of such extreme weather events, and this piling up is consistent with climate change projections and understandings. It will be another decade or so before I would be confident in our our retrospective abilities to properly evaluate the current decade, where we can look back at averaged trending and see how well the projected and the observed match up over the current decade.

As for the connection with climate change:

"A decade of weather extremes" - http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/files/10-ans-dextremes-climatiques.pdf

"[FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B]Transient response of severe thunderstorm forcing to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations" - http://www.eas.purdue.edu/earthsystem/Trapp_GRL_09.pdf[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B]http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/Presentations/extremesCAT_web.pdf[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][/FONT][/FONT]
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The problem trakar is there has been no increase in either quantity or intensity of storms.
The worst storms in European history occured in the 1600's, look up The Great Drowning of Men as an example. I can't seem to recall 30,000 Europeans dying in a flood in recent memory.

Your selective sampling while amusing is also quite pathetic. You make claims of all these increased storms and yet when one looks at the historical record one finds that the storms today are no different than those of the past.....not in the least. There's just a hell of a lot more people to be affected by them.

Correlation doesn't equal causation no matter how hard you try to make it so.

 

[bobgnote]

Bob, why are you still here, bob?

I thought you were going to save the planet?

You don't have to say my name twice, fucktard. I'll reply. I don't even put fucktards on ignore, since that isn't why we post, at USMB.

Meanwhile, anybody who saves the planet will be lucky, I think. Don't you worry. By the time somebody might make a move, maybe I will have something to do with it.

But in the meantime, I'm dialing in all kinds of fucktards. Glad you could make it, TASIYHat. Some of us need to know, why fucktards are trying to take out DOD, Navy, and CIA fuinding, for climate change strategy. Seditious bitches are about.

What are you doing, back at an environment thread? Did the nice people kick you out, of wherever you were trying to hang out?

 

[flacaltenn]

There isn't even a WAY to compare number and severity of tornadoes over a historical scale..

The doppler radar (NextRad and others that I helped design) didn't exist prior to 1980 and weren't completely fielded until the mid-90s. NOW -- the number of tornadoes GOES UP simply because we can see a complete track better. And a separate tornado event is declared for EACH TOUCHDOWN.

NOTHING like that is available to accurately and SIMILIARLY quantify historical numbers.. Same with Intensity.. So --- while you're stretching to make your dire predictions based on TODAY'S weather, your historical comparisons for tornadoes and severe storms are NOT gonna have accurate data..

Knock yourself out and buy the Red Bull in cases...

 

[bobgnote]

The problem trakar is there has been no increase in either quantity or intensity of storms.

The worst storms in European history occured in the 1600's, look up The Great Drowning of Men as an example. I can't seem to recall 30,000 Europeans dying in a flood in recent memory.

Your selective sampling while amusing is also quite pathetic. You make claims of all these increased storms and yet when one looks at the historical record one finds that the storms today are no different than those of the past.....not in the least. There's just a hell of a lot more people to be affected by them.

Correlation doesn't equal causation no matter how hard you try to make it so.

Gosh, no, Wally! Just because the TSI is down, and melt is record-breaking, and temperatures are UP, I suppose we should Jew the GREENHOUSE EFFECT all to crap, just to be like that.

Just because some atmospheric molecules have three or more atoms doesn't equal causation, if there is some kind of wall, between known circumstances and logically expected outcomes.

Let's call it WALLY, just to be familiar. Then we can Jew it around, all night and day.

 

[westwall]

Out of the 1200 tornadoes reported in 2011 ---- these few storms account for the vast majority of the cost and injuries.. And there hasn't been a targeted assault on populated areas like this in one year in recorded weather history...

Increase the intensity and number of storms, and you decrease the odds of storms striking densely populated areas and doing lots of damage.

As for whether or not we can lay any particular storm or even storm season solely at the feet of climate change, I would argue against that practice. Much as with hurricanes and other major weather events there are simply too many variables in any given system to say compellingly that it is primarily due to the effects and impacts of any one particular variable. That said, we are beginning to see an apparent piling up of such extreme weather events, and this piling up is consistent with climate change projections and understandings. It will be another decade or so before I would be confident in our our retrospective abilities to properly evaluate the current decade, where we can look back at averaged trending and see how well the projected and the observed match up over the current decade.

As for the connection with climate change:

"A decade of weather extremes" - http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/files/10-ans-dextremes-climatiques.pdf

"[FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B]Transient response of severe thunderstorm forcing to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations" - http://www.eas.purdue.edu/earthsystem/Trapp_GRL_09.pdf[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B]http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/Presentations/extremesCAT_web.pdf[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][FONT=AdvTT2cba4af3.B][/FONT][/FONT]
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Looks like the tornadoes are not following your claims........You would think that you guys could at least get ONE prediction correct but as usual, you can't even do that. Flipping a coin will give you better results than your models....pathetic..


"Bob Henson | July 24, 2012 • Heat and drought are punishing much of the United States right now, but there’s actually some good weather news to report. This month is on track to produce fewer tornadoes than any July on record, and by a long shot.

As of July 23, this month has produced a paltry total of 14 tornado reports, according to preliminary data from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC). While there could be more twisters before month’s end, a major outbreak doesn’t appear likely at all.

The chart below shows just how unusual this month has been, compared to past Julys. Graphed in blue are the final July tornado counts from the 1950s (when modern records began) to 2011. The next-most-quiet July after 2012 is 1960, which saw a total of 42 tornadoes—three times what we’ve seen thus far this month. Many Julys have produced more than 100 twisters."


Summertime, and the twisters are missin' | UCAR

 

[bobgnote]

Tornado outbreaks may happen, during either El Nino or La Nina, but severe outbreaks tend to happen, during La Nina. The jet stream will play this, in the same way El Nino jet streams tend to fend off Atlantic hurricanes.

An El Nino is on the way, so we will likely get a big cup of mud, for Winter, 2012-13.

Climatic conditions in North Carolina during La Niña conditions tend to be opposite those seen during El Niño events, including an increase in the number of tropical cyclones that develop in the North Atlantic Ocean.

The State Climate Office has also studied the relationship between severe weather, such as tornadoes, and El Niño / La Niña. In North Carolina, it appears that there are more tornadoes during La Niña events.

---------------------

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: El Niño Southern Oscillation