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gergis et al is withdrawn

IanC

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the Gergis paper is gone. the Mannian like hockey stick study has been refuted. its too bad that we cant go back and get rid of more of the hockey stick travesties that have been published over the past 15 years. with every data set that gets put into public access, and every methodology that is forced to be explained, the warmists' position gets weaker and weaker.
 

westwall

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the Gergis paper is gone. the Mannian like hockey stick study has been refuted. its too bad that we cant go back and get rid of more of the hockey stick travesties that have been published over the past 15 years. with every data set that gets put into public access, and every methodology that is forced to be explained, the warmists' position gets weaker and weaker.




It's amazing how fast the crickets arrive when this sort of thing happens.
 
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IanC

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the Gergis paper is gone. the Mannian like hockey stick study has been refuted. its too bad that we cant go back and get rid of more of the hockey stick travesties that have been published over the past 15 years. with every data set that gets put into public access, and every methodology that is forced to be explained, the warmists' position gets weaker and weaker.




It's amazing how fast the crickets arrive when this sort of thing happens.

the distortion of scientific principles has allowed climate science to drain the banked esteem of science in the public's opinion. but it is still better to lance the boil rather than let it continue to fester.
 
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IanC

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Gergis hockey stick withdrawn. This is what 95% certainty looks like in climate science.


In May it was all over the newspapers, in June it was shown to be badly flawed. By October, it quietly gets withdrawn. The apology and press release are coming soon…right?

Thanks to help from the Australian Research Council it only took 300,000 dollars and three years to produce a paper that lasted all of three weeks. But it scored the scary headlines! It was “confirmation”, it was “unprecedented warming”, and it was a scientific certainty that was based on “27 natural climate records” and “over the last 1000 years”. What could possibly go wrong? They had 2 whole proxies that went right back a thousand years, and they’d used computers (!) to rehash the data 3000 ways! Frankly, I’m surprised it lasted three weeks. Let’s remember that if one single journalist had simply asked “how much colder was it in 1200AD?” Gergis, Karoly and the rest would have had to say “0.09 of a degree”. No one asked. But Gergis et al, had a proxy in Tasmania, and another in New Zealand, and they were “confident” they could calculate the whole grand continental collective temperature to nine one hundredths of a degree? Seriously.

As Mike E then pointed out in comments, the error margin was larger than the result:

“The average reconstructed temperature anomaly in Australasia during A.D. 1238–1267, the warmest 30-year pre-instrumental period, is 0.09°C (±0.19°C) below 1961–1990 levels.”

Kudos to the team at Climate Audit (especially to Jean S and Nick Stokes) who uncovered a problem so significant, that ultimately it could not be ignored, even if it could be glossed over, delayed, and put on hold for months in the interim.
 

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What are the loons babbling about? The Gergis paper was never published, only addressed a possible southern hemisphere hockey stick, and was withdrawn for more work back in June. It was a pretty ho-hum matter, showing that peer review worked. It takes one crazy diseased mind to define it as a conspiracy.

It's like denalists have this secret moron code that no normal human can decipher. I'm sure it makes sense to them, but why should anyone care about it? Sure, monkeys manage to communicate with each other, but should we care what they say?
 

westwall

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What are the loons babbling about? The Gergis paper was never published, only addressed a possible southern hemisphere hockey stick, and was withdrawn for more work back in June. It was a pretty ho-hum matter, showing that peer review worked. It takes one crazy diseased mind to define it as a conspiracy.

It's like denalists have this secret moron code that no normal human can decipher. I'm sure it makes sense to them, but why should anyone care about it? Sure, monkeys manage to communicate with each other, but should we care what they say?





:lol::lol: Oh, gee that stung!:lol::lol: Funny how when the paper was released to the press you guys were all over it. Now that it's been shown to be deeply flawed you shrug your shoulders and say ho hum....so which is it.....monkey.
 
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IanC

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What are the loons babbling about? The Gergis paper was never published, only addressed a possible southern hemisphere hockey stick, and was withdrawn for more work back in June. It was a pretty ho-hum matter, showing that peer review worked. It takes one crazy diseased mind to define it as a conspiracy.

It's like denalists have this secret moron code that no normal human can decipher. I'm sure it makes sense to them, but why should anyone care about it? Sure, monkeys manage to communicate with each other, but should we care what they say?
you cant be serious! it passed peer review only to be slaughtered in web review.

what's more, the weaknesses in Gergis are present in a whole lot of other climate science papers.
 

flacaltenn

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What are the loons babbling about? The Gergis paper was never published, only addressed a possible southern hemisphere hockey stick, and was withdrawn for more work back in June. It was a pretty ho-hum matter, showing that peer review worked. It takes one crazy diseased mind to define it as a conspiracy.

It's like denalists have this secret moron code that no normal human can decipher. I'm sure it makes sense to them, but why should anyone care about it? Sure, monkeys manage to communicate with each other, but should we care what they say?
you cant be serious! it passed peer review only to be slaughtered in web review.

what's more, the weaknesses in Gergis are present in a whole lot of other climate science papers.
Ian -- way too diplomatic with the "......in a whole lot of other climate science papers."

I'd say MOST that get press release attention and ALL that get top billing by the IPCC...

:eusa_shifty:
 
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IanC

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What are the loons babbling about? The Gergis paper was never published, only addressed a possible southern hemisphere hockey stick, and was withdrawn for more work back in June. It was a pretty ho-hum matter, showing that peer review worked. It takes one crazy diseased mind to define it as a conspiracy.

It's like denalists have this secret moron code that no normal human can decipher. I'm sure it makes sense to them, but why should anyone care about it? Sure, monkeys manage to communicate with each other, but should we care what they say?
you cant be serious! it passed peer review only to be slaughtered in web review.

what's more, the weaknesses in Gergis are present in a whole lot of other climate science papers.
Ian -- way too diplomatic with the "......in a whole lot of other climate science papers."

I'd say MOST that get press release attention and ALL that get top billing by the IPCC...

:eusa_shifty:
perhaps....

but I have never changed anybody's mind by telling them they are full of shit. the only way for people to change is by thinking about the subject. sometimes the best method is by asking someone to defend what they think is an obvious truth, and hopefully they find out it is definitely not obvious and maybe not the truth.
 

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Interesting. When a real researcher thinks that there may have been a problem with data or processing and withdraws it for correction, priot to publication, you denialists claim dishonesty. Yet when an undegreed ex-TV weatherman publishes lie after proven lie, you say not a word. Intellectual honesty is not a strong point with you fellows.

There have been more than a dozen scientific studies from many nations now that support the Mann graph. You just cannot lie that away.



NOAA Paleoclimatology Program - Gergis et al. 2012 Australasia 1000 Year Ensemble Temperature Reconstructions

Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
An issue has been identified in the processing of the data used in the study, "Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium" by Joelle Gergis, Raphael Neukom, Stephen Phipps, Ailie Gallant and David Karoly, accepted for publication in the Journal of Climate.

The authors are currently reviewing the data and methods. The revised paper will be re-submitted to the Journal of Climate by the end of July and it will be sent out for peer review again.
 
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IanC

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Interesting. When a real researcher thinks that there may have been a problem with data or processing and withdraws it for correction, priot to publication, you denialists claim dishonesty. Yet when an undegreed ex-TV weatherman publishes lie after proven lie, you say not a word. Intellectual honesty is not a strong point with you fellows.

There have been more than a dozen scientific studies from many nations now that support the Mann graph. You just cannot lie that away.



NOAA Paleoclimatology Program - Gergis et al. 2012 Australasia 1000 Year Ensemble Temperature Reconstructions

Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
An issue has been identified in the processing of the data used in the study, "Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium" by Joelle Gergis, Raphael Neukom, Stephen Phipps, Ailie Gallant and David Karoly, accepted for publication in the Journal of Climate.

The authors are currently reviewing the data and methods. The revised paper will be re-submitted to the Journal of Climate by the end of July and it will be sent out for peer review again.


except Gergis et al is removed, it has not and will not be resubmitted because it has fatal flaws that cannot be remedied. cherrypicking and circular reasoning

in typical climate science fashion the authors independently found the same errors that were found at Climate Audit, on the very same day! imagine that! what are the odds?

you guys keep saying that there are all these papers supporting the Mann graph but you never explain what 'supporting' is. if the MWP and LIA are halfway between Lamb's graph and Mann's graph, is that still supporting? consistent with?

also, the supporting papers all seem to use tainted proxies like the bristlecone pines or upsidedown Tiljander, which the methodolgies then turn into a hockey stick. why cant we even agree as to which proxies should be used in paleo recontruction? and have you actually looked at the proxy sets? they are almost all noise. anyone who gets a nice crisp line on a graph out of them is fooling himself, along with a significant part of the world.


and please, bring up some of the blatant errors that Watts has made. I would like to know what he has done to deserve your irrational hate. its kind of like edthecynic hating Spencer and Christie. all bluster and no substance.

edit- remember when I showed you the Mann/Jones paper at RealClimate, and how it was riddled with either highschool errors or blatant misrepresentation? you refused to comment then, which showed a lot about your character.
 
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westwall

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Interesting. When a real researcher thinks that there may have been a problem with data or processing and withdraws it for correction, priot to publication, you denialists claim dishonesty. Yet when an undegreed ex-TV weatherman publishes lie after proven lie, you say not a word. Intellectual honesty is not a strong point with you fellows.

There have been more than a dozen scientific studies from many nations now that support the Mann graph. You just cannot lie that away.



NOAA Paleoclimatology Program - Gergis et al. 2012 Australasia 1000 Year Ensemble Temperature Reconstructions

Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
An issue has been identified in the processing of the data used in the study, "Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium" by Joelle Gergis, Raphael Neukom, Stephen Phipps, Ailie Gallant and David Karoly, accepted for publication in the Journal of Climate.

The authors are currently reviewing the data and methods. The revised paper will be re-submitted to the Journal of Climate by the end of July and it will be sent out for peer review again.




olfraud you forget that those supporting papers are using the SAME DATA and the SAME methods to derive their results. In other words they are not testing anything.
 
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the paper was peer reviewed and accepted for publication. it had already been cited in an early draft of the new IPCC report. when it became available for skeptics to view, it was demolished in just a few days and eventually withdrawn altogether.

but what about the IPCC? they are still using it!!!!!. the main graph anyways. a different article used Gergis2012 as reference material, so now the IPCC is just citing the secondary source rather than the now defunct Gergis2012.

anyone who is familiar with AR4 and climategate will instantly recognize the same disgusting tactics that were used to prop up the hockeystick reconstructions by accepting rebuttals to the McIntyre and MacKittrick papers even though they were submitted after the deadline and never actually published.
 

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the paper was peer reviewed and accepted for publication. it had already been cited in an early draft of the new IPCC report. when it became available for skeptics to view, it was demolished in just a few days and eventually withdrawn altogether.

but what about the IPCC? they are still using it!!!!!. the main graph anyways. a different article used Gergis2012 as reference material, so now the IPCC is just citing the secondary source rather than the now defunct Gergis2012.

anyone who is familiar with AR4 and climategate will instantly recognize the same disgusting tactics that were used to prop up the hockeystick reconstructions by accepting rebuttals to the McIntyre and MacKittrick papers even though they were submitted after the deadline and never actually published.




The IPCC isn't interested in science Ian. That should be obvious by now. They are purely a political entity striving to impose its ideals on the world.
 
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IanC

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Karoly and Gergis vs Journal of Climate « Climate Audit

Gergis et al Correspondence « Climate Audit


I dont know about the rest of you but these types of articles on climate science are really interesting to me. Gergis2012 was a new hockeystick graph for the southern hemisphere. it was peer reviewed and accepted for publication. before it was physically printed in the journal Gergis2012 was released online. within days (hours?) of its release the blogosphere had found fatal flaws in it. Gergis et al then claimed that they had found the same errors by themselves at the exact same time, after months of calculating and drafting and the process of peer review. is that plausible?

Gergis et al then told the journal that they would fix the problem but the paper should be put on hold. reluctantly the journal gave them some extra time. when it became obvious that it couldnt be fixed (and after some Michael Mann advice to just ignore the problem and brave it out) Gergis et al missed the deadline for resubmitting in time for inclusion into the new IPCC report AR5. and finally the journal declared it withdrawn rather than pending.

the funny part is that FOI on the emails from UWA and to the journal present the gong show that was going on in the background, the dramatic difference between the public bravado and the private dismay. in the end at least the journal did the right thing but Gergis et al certainly didnt.

the funny thing is.....if Gergis et al didnt pretend that they were using (relatively) correct selection procedures none of this fiasco would have happened. if they just baldfacedly declared that they were cherrypicking the data sets that they wanted, like all the other hockeystick graphs, then it probably still would have passed peer review and been published even though the sceptics would have complained (again) about the circular reasoning and statistical incorrectness of the methodology.

but the cat is out of the bag now.
 

flacaltenn

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It's POSSIBLE that you discover fatal errors in your work as soon as you push send..

That's why I can spend 15minutes on an email and regret that I sent it a minute later. You're wrapped up in the PROCESS of publishing and not really critically reviewing the work at that point.

BUT --- if the nature of the errors is STRETCHING crap data to APPEAR significant. Then your regret in publishing it is just that you didn't obfuscate enough to make a good argument.
 
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IanC

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It's POSSIBLE that you discover fatal errors in your work as soon as you push send..

That's why I can spend 15minutes on an email and regret that I sent it a minute later. You're wrapped up in the PROCESS of publishing and not really critically reviewing the work at that point.

BUT --- if the nature of the errors is STRETCHING crap data to APPEAR significant. Then your regret in publishing it is just that you didn't obfuscate enough to make a good argument.
flac- you really must read the emails! the immediate first panic....the mistakenly honest first admission to the journal.....the hairpulling as it became obvious that they couldnt 'fix' the problem....the journal's scolding.....

one thing that kinda pissed me off is when a reporter was told that the paper was just being adjusted even though the journal editor had already told Gergis et all that the paper was officially rejected. of course the reporter probably should have checked.
 
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IanC

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bump for crick
 

jc456

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What are the loons babbling about? The Gergis paper was never published, only addressed a possible southern hemisphere hockey stick, and was withdrawn for more work back in June. It was a pretty ho-hum matter, showing that peer review worked. It takes one crazy diseased mind to define it as a conspiracy.

It's like denalists have this secret moron code that no normal human can decipher. I'm sure it makes sense to them, but why should anyone care about it? Sure, monkeys manage to communicate with each other, but should we care what they say?
you cant be serious! it passed peer review only to be slaughtered in web review.

what's more, the weaknesses in Gergis are present in a whole lot of other climate science papers.
Ian -- way too diplomatic with the "......in a whole lot of other climate science papers."

I'd say MOST that get press release attention and ALL that get top billing by the IPCC...

:eusa_shifty:
perhaps....

but I have never changed anybody's mind by telling them they are full of shit. the only way for people to change is by thinking about the subject. sometimes the best method is by asking someone to defend what they think is an obvious truth, and hopefully they find out it is definitely not obvious and maybe not the truth.
Ian, and that has been precisely my point on requesting the experiment concerning 120 PPM. Me personally, can't fathom a professional not running some experiment. One experiment, all of these thousands of scientists, and they can't show one example of their work. Not one!! I therefore, challenge it all. I trust non of it!!!! I don't care what they have a degree in, it doesn't mean I can't ask a question. And the fact they don't produce any material is inexcusable.
 

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Interesting. When a real researcher thinks that there may have been a problem with data or processing and withdraws it for correction, priot to publication, you denialists claim dishonesty. Yet when an undegreed ex-TV weatherman publishes lie after proven lie, you say not a word. Intellectual honesty is not a strong point with you fellows.

There have been more than a dozen scientific studies from many nations now that support the Mann graph. You just cannot lie that away.



NOAA Paleoclimatology Program - Gergis et al. 2012 Australasia 1000 Year Ensemble Temperature Reconstructions

Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
An issue has been identified in the processing of the data used in the study, "Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium" by Joelle Gergis, Raphael Neukom, Stephen Phipps, Ailie Gallant and David Karoly, accepted for publication in the Journal of Climate.

The authors are currently reviewing the data and methods. The revised paper will be re-submitted to the Journal of Climate by the end of July and it will be sent out for peer review again.

olfraud you forget that those supporting papers are using the SAME DATA and the SAME methods to derive their results. In other words they are not testing anything.

Say it all together now....with feeling. ERROR CASCADE!!!!
 

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