False comparison I'm afraid. Election polls are by definition acutely dynamic. What respondents plan to do today changes, often radically, from what they planned to do yesterday at the same time. The instant case is about the respondent's own GENERAL tilt/identification, which evolves at more of a glacial pace. So what you have here is apples and oranges. A poll on something as continuously changing as an election has an exponentially shorter shelf life. All polls, legitimate ones, may be created equal but their subjects absolutely are not.
As regards your example above, again a national poll can indicate what the whole thinks, but "the whole" is not how we elect Presidents. Four years prior "the whole" indicated that Clinton would get the most votes, and she did.
I've heard a fan of the weather[wo]men make this argument, but IMO it's way bogus. Okay, so polls are allegedly a snapshot of the moment of the polling, unless (as is usual) their methodology STINKS, as do all the current political polls, because Republicans won't take part. But that is not what anyone wants or believes. People don't watch the Weather Channel to enjoy the infinite changes between Tuesday and Saturday in the forecasters' ha-ha "predictions." No one cares about that. What they want to know, and believe they are being told, is WILL IT RAIN ON THE WEEKEND. If they believed the weatherpeople were feeding them an ever-changing line of bull, they just wouldn't bother to tune in. But they badly want future-telling, and that is what they tell themselves they are getting.
Same deal with the political polls. Every single one of them may BE a (very badly taken) snapshot, but who cares? They just want to know that Hillary will win, 96% chance!! They just want to know that Britain is SURE to vote to "remain." And that's why all the silly polls we see day in and day out are read and promoted by some people who are eager to deceive themselves that these are future predictions. No one is interested in a moving dynamic, why would they be. The left likes all these petty political polls because nearly all pollsters are leftist and only leftists take them, so the results please the left and they are very willing to pay for these predictions with money or clicks or subscriptions. But we on the right don't participate, and we have learned not to believe these propaganda pieces. The left is still fooling itself.
I just don't get why you keep trying to compare polling with meteorology. They're in no way the same thing. Meteorology is a
prediction, based on science. It's exactly the same thing you and I do when we drive toward a sharp curve and calculate, based on the science of our current speed and the degree of the curve, whether we need to slow down or not. In the same way meteorology can see what the weather is doing to the west and what's influencing its movement to the east, and predict what tomorrow brings. That's got zilch to do with polling what a set of people thinks or how they self-identify.
Secondly the repeated mantra that "Republicans don't participate" is absurd on its face. Not only is there no evidence thereto but the very poll in this topic, handily disproves it. It's a survey (rather than a poll) of how respondents define themselves; if "Republicans didn't participate", their number would would show up as Zero. So I'm afraid this malarkey about "leftists and only leftists take them" is foundation-free ipse dixit.
And it's worth reiterating, since it doesn't seem to be sinking in, that the instant case is not a predictive poll. It's not asking anything about "who/what will you vote for in X election". It's a survey of "who are you". It's entirely in the
present tense.
I've actually been trained in that science so I know whereof I speak. It's a diligent process that sweats over literally every word so as to avoid any suggestion one way or another. Phrasings are rotated so that if there's a multiple choice, the first choice constantly changes so that that's not an implied suggestion, and so on. Value judgment adjectives are verboten. Entirely neutral.
That's not to say it can't be abused and deliberately slanted by those so inclined of course, but again that's why each poll, valid ones anyway, show you their methodology, so we can see for ourselves what the approach was. If there's any deliberate slanting going on it will show up there.
I don't believe current polls are honest, they are for propaganda, and besides,
they can't poll the right so it matters not at all how carefully anyone phrases the questions, for good neutrality OR for evil slanting.
This is more of what we just disproved above. Show any evidence you have. Explain how Harry Truman or Lyndon Johnson knew their approval was too low to run for re-election, if "Republicans didn't participate". WHO are these people that show up as "X number of Republicans think..."?
Again, if "they couldn't poll the right", then no issue we might define as "right" would show any support at all. It would be zero. And if that were the case there would be no point in taking a poll at all; it would be like taking a poll about "do you think water is wet".
But that in no way means that a legitimate poll is illegitimate just because somebody else did a push poll. The fact that you can photoshop Robert Byrd in a Klan robe doesn't make all photography illegitimate. Nor does it mean that because some wackadoo ran a fake poll, the rest of us should stop participating in legitimate ones.
I take issue with that: sure, fake photos make all photography suspect! If people don't recognize that photos can now be faked very persuasively, they need to get their trusting center seriously overhauled, because they're terminally naive. Same deal with Nigerian princes, same deal with phishing hacks. Be suspicious, people, as soon as you find out the bad guys have found another good way to fool you. Polls not only were often designed to fool us -- they were also universally wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong on two very important matters in 2016, and so polls should never again be attended to, at least by me, and I won't.
Be suspicious? Absolutely. Demand proof? Certainly. Trust but verify? Words to live by. But again, the fact that it's POSSIBLE to photoshop the Beatles crossing Abbey Road on Segways
in no way means the original walk the zebra photo of 1969 was suddenly not authentic. That too is absurd.
Not sure what two important matters you're thinking of from 2016 but again, polls
indicate, and do so from as you said a snapshot; they're not
predicting a bet-the-house-on-it.
So where do you get this idea that "Republicans don't participate" or "only leftists take polls"?
You may not participate but that in no way means others don't.
And not to be unkind but your declining to participate doesn't matter to the poll because it will just field someone else with the same profile to reach the base it needs.
Apparently not so, in spades. I've followed this issue of the collapse of the polling industry carefully because I was so betrayed by them, and their inability to talk the right into participating is considered well and away the biggest problem, and they don't know how to solve it.
There is no "collapse of the polling industry". Again, show any evidence to that effect. I'm betting this comes from the same source that fed you this malarkey about "Republicans don't do polls".
Also while I'm not sure how it's possible to be "betrayed" by something that is by definition not an absolute science, it's worth pointing out that one of the many criticisms of the Electoral College system is that it makes us all dependent on polls to determine if it's even worth leaving the house on Election Day. Because unless one's own state is running close in the polls, the EC system leaves the voter no reason to leave the house at all, since it's predetermined.
To wade further into this muck, polls are not by any means always political. Industries for instance use polls to determine what consumers think of their product versus what they think about their competition. It would serve them no use at all to slant a poll into what the company wanted to hear; that would be a complete waste of time and money.
"Muck" is sure the right word. In my experience with commercial polls, which is considerable, businesses use them as a type of advertisement to show how happy, happy, happy you really are with their godawful company, even though you've arrived at that page with a heartfelt complaint. I think commercial polls are even more dishonest than political polls, and that's saying something. It's not dataseeking: it's all clickbait now, like those ads that promise to show what a star of yesteryear looks like today ------- but somehow after 147 screenfuls of ads, still hasn't got there yet. Most smart people, I would guess, figure out these dodges and quit doing them. Commercial polls are like the cashiers at the supermarket with the worst restocking and the worst shortages in the county asking, "Did you find everything?" They don't want to know what you didn't find!! (I know: I've done the experiment more than once. Ha. The next person asks me that does so at her peril.) They want you to say, "Yes, thank you," like a ritual so you go home thinking you found everything, despite all the items not crossed off on the list. I suppose you can guess I don't take commercial polls anymore either. I think it is important to recognize when we're being scammed, and avoid that! And we so very often are being scammed these days: things are different now.
Worse.
Wow, just wow. As I wrote that post yesterday it occurred to me that of the polls (surveys) I was involved with I can't remember a single one that was about politics; every one that I recall was about some commercial product, and NONE --- ZERO --- of them were push polls to persuade respondents to anybody's product. That's what advertising is for. Actually we didn't even know on whose behalf it was being done, and you clearly couldn't tell from the poll language, which was (AGAIN) meticulously worded, and all the pollsters coached, to lay out a completely neutral field of questions. For instance Kodak might want to know how its products were
perceived to compare with Canon's. If theirs was deemed inferior, Kodak wanted to know that so they could respond. If Canon's was inferior, that didn't tell Kodak much.
That is why they do this. Hearing a slew of domini dominis would serve them no purpose at all.
I'm getting the distinct impression that you have no idea what a poll is. What you describe above is not polling --- it's advertising. Entirely different.
However I should add that I rearranged my activities this weekend based on... wait for it.... t
he weather forecast. And in the event of what the weather has actually done, it was exactly right to rearrange as I did even though it meant more work. Something which shouldn't even be worth mentioning, let alone surprise anybody.