Frontier exploration: Non-conventional oil
High oil prices have opened the window to a sea of new exploration opportunities, leading independents and majors to try to develop non-conventional oil from a variety of sources. Two of the most exciting, and most heavily watched, are oil sands and oil shale.
The oil sands in Canada are particularly interesting for a number of reasons, most notably because they are estimated to hold between 1.7 and 2.5 trillion barrels of non-conventional oil (by contrast, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, has about 260 billion barrels of proven oil reserves). The question, of course, is how to get all that oil out. Oil sands mix bitumen, a carbon-rich sludge, with sand, water, and clay. In order to get crude oil from the sands, the bitumen must be extracted, typically by literally digging up the sands and transporting them by truck to plants, where the bitumen can be processed and "upgraded" (by adding hydrogen) to produce what is known as "syncrude." Additional bitumen can often be recovered in situ, where steam is injected into the sands to pump liquid bitumen out of the ground. This is an energy intensive and expensive process, but it is widely recognized to be cost-effective at $30 per barrel.
Oil shale has similar dynamics. There are an estimated 2.6 trillion barrels of recoverable oil in oil shale around the world, of which over 1 trillion are in the U.S. Essentially, oil shale is sedimentary rock which contains enough organic material to yield oil and gas upon distillation. Numerous methods have been tried to produce oil from oil shale cost-effectively, but the basic technology involves strip-mining the oil shale rock, crushing it, heating it, whereupon the gas, oil vapor, and char separate (a process called "retorting"), and then condensing the oil. Few efforts to process oil shale have been economic at a commercial level, though Estonia, Brazil, China, and Russia currently use oil shale in one form or another (one common, and easier, way to use oil shale is as a power source for power stations).
The economics of oil shale remain shrouded in mystery. Estimates range from an effective oil price of $75-$90 per barrel, from RAND, to Shell's estimates that it can make oil shale profitable in Colorado at $30 per barrel. The truth is likely that oil shale, on a small scale, will be expensive, and like oil sands, very energy intensive. If it can achieve commercial scale, it will likely be cost competitive with other forms of exploration, especially if large discoveries can be made.
According to estimates from Exxon Mobil (XOM) and the recently released report of the National Petroleum Council however, oil will continue to make up the overwhelming majority of world liquid fuel supply and the majority of that oil will come from conventional extraction methods. The charts below show estimated world liquid fuel supply and demand[1] through 2030 and estimated sources of oil supply through 2030.[2]
Industry:Oil & Gas Drilling