For the fools who thought we were in RECOVERY.

[Neubarth]

Where I live, signs looking for workers are popping up all over the place. There were none a year ago. Just saying.

Is Real Estate coming back in your area?
Not so much the number of home sales but home prices?

Bears are growling about mortgage resets coming up in July thru October of 2010 that could produce another wave of foreclosures a year from now.

Do you find it credible to say there is too much debt in the developed world, and the market will eventually force write-downs?

San Diego has reported several months of price increases. Just like I said about so many indices, it is just fish flopping on the bottom and not a sure indication of improvement in the economy or the market.

Toro sees signs for employment opportunities where he lives. I have noted an increase in employment ads in San Diego. Still, we have seen millions of people dropped from the employment rolls without one month of increases in employment sufficient to offset the number of people coming of age each month to be included in the workforce. We keep on adding to the number of unemployed regardless of how many we drop from the rolls.

 

[Toro]

Is Real Estate coming back in your area?
Not so much the number of home sales but home prices?

I think it will be a long time before real estate goes back to where it was a few years ago. Home prices here have stopped going down and are starting to edge up a bit, which is pretty much what one would expect.

Bears are growling about mortgage resets coming up in July thru October of 2010 that could produce another wave of foreclosures a year from now.

Possibly, though as I understand it, many of those mortgages have already defaulted, been restructured, or will reset to a lower level.

Do you find it credible to say there is too much debt in the developed world, and the market will eventually force write-downs?

Yes, there is too much debt in the world, and more write-downs are coming. However, we have already written down more than a trillion dollars worth of debt, and much of the debt has been transferred from the private sector to the balance sheets of the public sector. My guess is that much of that debt will eventually be inflated away.

 

[georgephillip]

Viewed from the far left, our current Great Recession is one cog in the global financial architecture that sustains strategic and national security objectives.

"In turn, the US-NATO military agenda serves to endorse a powerful business elite which relentlessly overshadows and undermines the functions of civilian government."

"The meltdown of the financial markets in 2008-2009 was the result of institutionalized fraud and financial manipulation. The "bank bailouts" were implemented on the instructions of Wall Street, leading to the largest transfer of money wealth in recorded history, while simultaneously creating an insurmountable public debt."

Force or fraud has never had it so good.

"Deregulation" has enabled market manipulators to amass vast amounts of money wealth while the global political economy enriches a few at the expense of many.

"Militarization and the economic crisis are intimately related. The provision of essential human services to meet basic human needs has been replaced by a profit driven "killing machine" in support of America's "Global War on Terror."

"The poor are made to fight the poor. Yet war enriches the upper class which controls industry, the military, oil, and banking.

"In a war economy, death is good for business, poverty is good for society, and power is good for politics."

 

[georgephillip]

Toro:

When you say much of the debt will be inflated away, does that mean hyperinflation is coming when the banks start making loans again?

 

[Toro]

Toro:

When you say much of the debt will be inflated away, does that mean hyperinflation is coming when the banks start making loans again?

No, I don't think hyperinflation is coming. I do think that inflation is the easiest way out for governments, however, and inflation of 4%-5% a year compounded adds up. That I can see happening, but it is unlikely to happen over the next few years.

I may be wrong, and maybe we don't get inflation, I don't know. Maybe the government will get its act together. However, inflation is easier than hard political decisions.

 

[pinqy]

Number spinning is a way of life it seems.

Want to know the real story?

Pick Two places, a small town and a large city, spend 2 hours just talking to anyone you meet. Hear it directly from the average American about how many people they know out of work and for how long, find out how many people they know have had a house foreclosed on, ask around you will find the real story.

And how will that tell you the full story? Ok, let me pick two cities....El Centro CA...Unemployment rate of 27%. And Logan, UT...Unemployment rate of 5.5%

What does that tell me about the country as a whole?

Pink, it is that kind of attitude that really annoys people. It does no good to constantly try to irritate people like you constantly do.

The person who posted what you replied to was "just sayin'" that you have to get down and meet the people to know what is goin' on.

And I'm "just sayin'" that that only tells you what's going on in the places you go to and not the country as a whole.

I have been traveling the country for years now (I like to) and know what is happening. We are in a serious Depression. I have seen it in El Centro, Brawley, Buttonwillow, Shafter, Tehachape and Delano, California.

And those places and California overall are in terrible shape. There are a few areas in CA that are at Depression level Unemployment rates: Bakersfield-Delano, El Centro, Fresno, Hanford-Corcoran, Merced, Modesto, Stockton, Visalia-Porterville, and Yuba City are all above 18% unemployment. That is Depression level and if places like those are the basis of your opinion that we're in a Depression, I can certainly see how you reached that opinion. But it's a distorted view, because there are many other places that are much better off. Arkansas, Colorado, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming all have state Unemployment rates UNDER 9%. So, while not great (except for the Dakotas and Nebraska: all under 5.5%) Those states are nowhere near Depression.

A small sample will not give you the overall picture.

I have seen it in most of the small cities and towns all across America.

No, you've seen it in most of the small cities and towns you've been to or heard from. That sample is neither random nor representative. I'm not saying you're not seeing what you're seening..of course you are, and of course it looks as bad as you see but only for the areas you've seen. Even within an area, things can be radically different...Yuma, Arizona has an unemployment rate of 19.9%...going only there, you'd think Arizona was in a Depression. But Yuma's labor force is only 2.6% of the State Labor Force and overall the State UE rate is 9.4%

Or my area...If you look at just the District of Columbia, the UE rate is 10.9% of the residents. But include Northern Virginia as part of the metro area and you're adding 8.5 times as many employed and only 4.6 times as many unemployed so the rate for the metro area is only 6.7%.

Your samples are biased (in the statistical sense).

Go to Nebraska and tell the people there that they're in a Depression and they'll look at you like you're smoking crack.

 

[pinqy]

The actual number of unemployed is over 30 million.

THEN BACK THAT UP WITH DATA, NOT YOUR ASS!

I don't need to. I AM the American People and I have seen the unemployment first hand as I make it my point to tour America.

But how representative is your sample? Are you going to Nebraska, the Dakotas, Utah, etc?

I have pointed out to you the blatant dishonesty from government by breaking the numbers down. I have done it over and over again.

No, you have not. You have NOT broken the numbers down, but presented guesses, overlapping categories etc. You've counted everyone with a part time job as unemployed, you've excluded everyone over 68 with a job and everyone who has a disability but is working. You have no sources for your data, and your definitions are a mess.

 

[Big Fitz]

Waiting for the double dip.

and boy howdy! It's going to be a doozie!

 

[Big Fitz]

The actual number of unemployed is over 30 million.

THEN BACK THAT UP WITH DATA, NOT YOUR ASS!

I don't need to. I AM the American People and I have seen the unemployment first hand as I make it my point to tour America.

I have pointed out to you the blatant dishonesty from government by breaking the numbers down. I have done it over and over again. It is you who refuses to see the forest because all of the damn trees are in the way.

The unemployment situation report is a total fabrication. Anybody who bothers to look at the numbers knows that. You, of course, worship the numbers even though they do not add up. And then you wonder why I am convinced that you are insane.

Quite frankly, you are the screwiest ass I have ever run across. In the military we called people like you **** ups because your mind was so fucked up that you were a danger to your fellow man.

I certainly would not want a crazy person like you in my platoon. I'd be willing to bet that you would be fragged within 72 hours if we were back in Viet Nam. Fuckups are Fuckups. Gotta get rid of them before they kill good men.

out of my group of immediate friends, say like the 10 I see the most, half are unemployed. 2 are contractors, 2 are civilian contractors who worked for the government and one's a lawyer.

All very good paying jobs, some over 60k a year.

Things are about to get much much worse. The question will be one of how fast we recover. Unfortunately with P-BO in power, it's not going to happen till about 2014 unless the libs get their back broken in 2010, and I mean BROKEN.

For every election we don't get fiscal conservatives who are adults and willing to do the hard thing, just tack on 2 more years till it happens unless some miracle occurs.

 

[The Rabbi]

Waiting for the double dip.

and boy howdy! It's going to be a doozie!

The next theme will be the deleveraging of government debt. Look for widespread defaults by governments of all sizes on bond issues.

 

[Gremlin-USA]

Number spinning is a way of life it seems.

Want to know the real story?

Pick Two places, a small town and a large city, spend 2 hours just talking to anyone you meet. Hear it directly from the average American about how many people they know out of work and for how long, find out how many people they know have had a house foreclosed on, ask around you will find the real story.

And how will that tell you the full story? Ok, let me pick two cities....El Centro CA...Unemployment rate of 27%. And Logan, UT...Unemployment rate of 5.5%

What does that tell me about the country as a whole?

I can pick and choose like you did for a great comeback, but I won't. Number spinning is too easy.


I would acknowledge a Recovery when at least Half of the 80+ people I personally know that have been out of a Job longer than 3 months get a full time Job.

I would acknowledge a Recovery when the Home Values of 40 close friends goes up at least 25% and stays there.

I would acknowledge a Recovery when my friends and acquaintances at Kobelco and Caterpillar (both large equipment manufactures) get back to their original 2 shifts a day Manufacturing cycle and it stays that way for more than 6 months.

I would acknowledge a Recovery when the 100+ people have enough food to eat and do not rely on the Local Food bank (we are in a small county of less than 5,000 people)

I would acknowledge a Recovery when the City and Counties within 100 miles of me no longer have to lay off workers, furlough workers and keep raising my Taxes every single year and then providing less Services.

I could go on for hours, get the idea?

 

[Neubarth]

Number spinning is a way of life it seems.

Want to know the real story?

Pick Two places, a small town and a large city, spend 2 hours just talking to anyone you meet. Hear it directly from the average American about how many people they know out of work and for how long, find out how many people they know have had a house foreclosed on, ask around you will find the real story.

And how will that tell you the full story? Ok, let me pick two cities....El Centro CA...Unemployment rate of 27%. And Logan, UT...Unemployment rate of 5.5%

What does that tell me about the country as a whole?

I can pick and choose like you did for a great comeback, but I won't. Number spinning is too easy.


I would acknowledge a Recovery when at least Half of the 80+ people I personally know that have been out of a Job longer than 3 months get a full time Job.

I would acknowledge a Recovery when the Home Values of 40 close friends goes up at least 25% and stays there.

I would acknowledge a Recovery when my friends and acquaintances at Kobelco and Caterpillar (both large equipment manufactures) get back to their original 2 shifts a day Manufacturing cycle and it stays that way for more than 6 months.

I would acknowledge a Recovery when the 100+ people have enough food to eat and do not rely on the Local Food bank (we are in a small county of less than 5,000 people)

I would acknowledge a Recovery when the City and Counties within 100 miles of me no longer have to lay off workers, furlough workers and keep raising my Taxes every single year and then providing less Services.

I could go on for hours, get the idea?

I would acknowledge RECOVERY if I saw the employment numbers increase to the point that we were actually putting more people to work than were entering the workforce. Right now, we are still losing ground. More and more people are without jobs. In a Service Sector economy, that leads to further unemployment because there are less people to buy the services.

 

[Neubarth]

Waiting for the double dip.

and boy howdy! It's going to be a doozie!

The next theme will be the deleveraging of government debt. Look for widespread defaults by governments of all sizes on bond issues.

That will only happen if the Federal Government refuses to bail out the states. I expect that California will be the test case. Granted there already has been one refusal, but to make it official, there has to be more refusals.

 

[editec]

32 states are borrowing money to pay their unemployment benefits

Alabama $ 283 million
Arkansas 330 million
California 6.9 billion
Colorado 253 million
Connecticut 498 million
Delaware 12 million
Florida 1.6 billion
Georgia 416 million
Idaho 202 million
Illinois 2.2 billion
Indiana 1.7 billion
Kansas 88 million
Kentucky 795 million
Maryland 133 million
Mass. 387 million
Michigan 3.9 billion
Minnesota 477 million
Missouri 722 million
Nevada 397 million
New Jersey 1.7 billion
New York 3.2 billion
N.C. 2.1 billion
Ohio 2.3 billion
Penn. 3.0 billion
R.I. 225 million
S.C. 886 million
S.D. 24 million
Tennessee 21 million
Texas 1.0 billion
Vermont 33 million
Virginia 346 million
Virgin Islands 13 million
Wisconsin 1.4 billion
Total $37.8 billion

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/05/32-states-have-borrowed-from-treasury.html

Doesn't look like the recovery is hitting Main Street just yet.

Oh and FYI?

That total amount for all those states amounts to about 3% of the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Just to point out how expensive those wars REALLY are.

 

[pinqy]

Number spinning is a way of life it seems.

Want to know the real story?

Pick Two places, a small town and a large city, spend 2 hours just talking to anyone you meet. Hear it directly from the average American about how many people they know out of work and for how long, find out how many people they know have had a house foreclosed on, ask around you will find the real story.

And how will that tell you the full story? Ok, let me pick two cities....El Centro CA...Unemployment rate of 27%. And Logan, UT...Unemployment rate of 5.5%

What does that tell me about the country as a whole?

I can pick and choose like you did for a great comeback, but I won't. Number spinning is too easy.

Actually, you can't. Your argument was by looking at only 2 cities you could tell the state of the entire country. I have shown that you can't. It's possible you could pick 2 cities that do match the state of the entire country, but it's more likely you won't. In case you've missed my point, it is that it is very unlikely that you could tell the how the country's economy is going by looking at only your own city or any small group of random cities, and that if your results did match, it would be entirely coincidental.

I would acknowledge a Recovery when at least Half of the 80+ people I personally know that have been out of a Job longer than 3 months get a full time Job.

And how will that tell you the state of the economy in other parts of the country?

I could go on for hours, get the idea?

I get the idea that somehow you think yours is the only important or relevant part of the country. Tell you what, let's tell the government to quit all the money they spend surveying the rest of the country and only calculate unemployment, employment, and prices in your county. That'll work, right?

 

[georgephillip]

THEN BACK THAT UP WITH DATA, NOT YOUR ASS!

I don't need to. I AM the American People and I have seen the unemployment first hand as I make it my point to tour America.

I have pointed out to you the blatant dishonesty from government by breaking the numbers down. I have done it over and over again. It is you who refuses to see the forest because all of the damn trees are in the way.

The unemployment situation report is a total fabrication. Anybody who bothers to look at the numbers knows that. You, of course, worship the numbers even though they do not add up. And then you wonder why I am convinced that you are insane.

Quite frankly, you are the screwiest ass I have ever run across. In the military we called people like you **** ups because your mind was so fucked up that you were a danger to your fellow man.

I certainly would not want a crazy person like you in my platoon. I'd be willing to bet that you would be fragged within 72 hours if we were back in Viet Nam. Fuckups are Fuckups. Gotta get rid of them before they kill good men.

out of my group of immediate friends, say like the 10 I see the most, half are unemployed. 2 are contractors, 2 are civilian contractors who worked for the government and one's a lawyer.

All very good paying jobs, some over 60k a year.

Things are about to get much much worse. The question will be one of how fast we recover. Unfortunately with P-BO in power, it's not going to happen till about 2014 unless the libs get their back broken in 2010, and I mean BROKEN.

For every election we don't get fiscal conservatives who are adults and willing to do the hard thing, just tack on 2 more years till it happens unless some miracle occurs.

Big:

Breaking the backs of "Liberals" won't slow down Wall Street unless "conservatives" are FLUSHED from the US Congress at the same time.

When it comes to class war, Democrats and Republicans serve the same master.

 

[Neubarth]

When it comes to class war, Democrats and Republicans serve the same master.

Yep, corrupt Big Money Grubbers. Though I am not serious about Sharia Law, we need to do something about the disgusting open corruption in Washington. Almost everybody is on the take. To clean this mess up we need martial law and a couple years worth of firing squads. We have to aggressively and completely kill all vestiges of corruption in this country. Failure to do so is just an acceptance that corruption is the norm in the United States.

 

[Big Fitz]

and boy howdy! It's going to be a doozie!

The next theme will be the deleveraging of government debt. Look for widespread defaults by governments of all sizes on bond issues.

That will only happen if the Federal Government refuses to bail out the states. I expect that California will be the test case. Granted there already has been one refusal, but to make it official, there has to be more refusals.

I see that happening in 7 - 12 months once the bailout libs (of both parties) are ousted. But if Greece falls completely which is more likely to happen BEFORE that, it will happen before the election.

If the slide begins before November, this election's going to be an orgy of panic and bloodbath for incumbents. Even more so and even the few good ones are going to fall.

 

[Big Fitz]

and boy howdy! It's going to be a doozie!

The next theme will be the deleveraging of government debt. Look for widespread defaults by governments of all sizes on bond issues.

That will only happen if the Federal Government refuses to bail out the states. I expect that California will be the test case. Granted there already has been one refusal, but to make it official, there has to be more refusals.

I see that happening in 7 - 12 months once the bailout libs (of both parties) are ousted. But if Greece falls completely which is more likely to happen BEFORE that, it will happen before the election.

If the slide begins before November, this election's going to be an orgy of panic and bloodbath for incumbents. Even more so and even the few good ones are going to fall.

 

[The Rabbi]

The next theme will be the deleveraging of government debt. Look for widespread defaults by governments of all sizes on bond issues.

That will only happen if the Federal Government refuses to bail out the states. I expect that California will be the test case. Granted there already has been one refusal, but to make it official, there has to be more refusals.

I see that happening in 7 - 12 months once the bailout libs (of both parties) are ousted. But if Greece falls completely which is more likely to happen BEFORE that, it will happen before the election.

If the slide begins before November, this election's going to be an orgy of panic and bloodbath for incumbents. Even more so and even the few good ones are going to fall.

I could count on two fingers the ones I'd like to see re-elected. And making a clean sweep of the present crowd is worth losing a couple of decent reps.