Five very vulnerable Senate GOP seats

[nat4900]

Currently, the Senate has a 54 R and 46 D (with 2 Is) majority.

However, times have considerably changed since our last round of elections and the do-nothing senate is about to undergo a major shift in majority. Here are the 5 most vulnerable republican seats:

1. Pat Toomey (PA)
2. Ron Johnson (WI)
3. Kelly Ayotte (NH)
4. Rob Portman (OH)
5. Mark Kirk (IL)

Bear in mind that even Rubio's seat may be in danger...But the point is this. In the midst of the grandstanding by McConnell, "warning" Obama to NOT EVEN consider a supreme court justice nominee, 2017 may see an entirely different senate, not only in its majority, but the more progressive agenda that this new majority may enact (especially with Harry Reid retiring.)

If a democrat also sits in the oval office, and this current senate has refused to even entertain a SC nominee, we may see a much more liberal nominee for the supreme court, with very good chances of being confirmed.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

I think Kirk is an almost certainty. His approval ratings are shit and mix that in with the state's Democratic leanings I think he is done.

Johnson is probably the second most endangered. He has been polling behind Feingold, but depending on how this election goes he could possibly pull through. Presidential coat tails might make the difference here.

I think Ayotte and Portman are likely to survive, but those are two more races that could be affected by the presidential ticket.

As for Toomey, I don't know why people keep considering his race as endangered. None of this possible Democratic challengers have even come close to catching him in polling. I think he's good to go.

Don't forget there is an open seat in Nevada that right now could go 50/50 and as you pointed out, Florida as well.

 

[nat4900]

As for Toomey, I don't know why people keep considering his race as endangered. None of this possible Democratic challengers have even come close to catching him in polling. I think he's good to go.

I agree with the rest except for Toomey.....My understanding of the latest PA polling shows Toomey's considerable weakness among the independent voters, and there is a surprisingly high percentage of PA's independents....What it'll probably wind up determining the outcome is the opposition candidate to Toomey.

 

[candycorn]

Currently, the Senate has a 54 R and 46 D (with 2 Is) majority.

However, times have considerably changed since our last round of elections and the do-nothing senate is about to undergo a major shift in majority. Here are the 5 most vulnerable republican seats:

1. Pat Toomey (PA)
2. Ron Johnson (WI)
3. Kelly Ayotte (NH)
4. Rob Portman (OH)
5. Mark Kirk (IL)

Bear in mind that even Rubio's seat may be in danger...But the point is this. In the midst of the grandstanding by McConnell, "warning" Obama to NOT EVEN consider a supreme court justice nominee, 2017 may see an entirely different senate, not only in its majority, but the more progressive agenda that this new majority may enact (especially with Harry Reid retiring.)

If a democrat also sits in the oval office, and this current senate has refused to even entertain a SC nominee, we may see a much more liberal nominee for the supreme court, with very good chances of being confirmed.

One of the great things the GOP did (from their standpoint) is put gay marriage initiatives on the State ballots in 2004. It fired up the voters to get out and vote and pushed GWB over the top. Ten years later, all of those initiatives were rendered null and void by the SC.

If the Dems were smart, they would do something along the lines of that in 2016 in any purple state they control. A non-binding resolution to tell the GOP congress to act on Obama's nominations; have the Super Pacs play it up big time and get out more people to vote. Even if you're not crazy about Clinton, you can get behind something like that and, while you're there at the ballot box, why not vote for Secretary Clinton?