Everything You Wanted to Know about the Republican Convention

[Toro]

Good article. Lots of stuff I didn't know.

An Extremely Detailed Guide to What the Heck Might Happen at a GOP Contested Convention

 

[Valerie]

excellent, thank you.

 

[Valerie]

So what happens if Trump or someone else hasn’t locked up a majority of the delegates before the convention starts?

In a word: chaos. In a few more: Roughly 95 percent of the 2,472 GOP delegates will arrive at the convention “bound” to a candidate—that is, they will be required by their state party (or, in a few cases, state law) to vote for the candidate they were assigned to as a result of their state’s primary or caucus. (The other 5 percent arrive “unbound” and can vote however they like; we’ll get to them later.) That means the first vote tally should look more or less like the delegate trackers kept by the Associated Press and other news outlets. But if no candidate wins a majority of delegates during the first round—which they wouldn’t in this scenario—many of those delegates would then be unbound and allowed to vote however they want during the second round. Even more would become free agents in the rounds that followed, until eventually we’re looking at a free-for-all that would make the Republican debates look like ordered affairs.

Is there time between rounds for negotiations? Or do the votes just come one after another in rapid fire?

Conventions run on a slightly modified version of Robert’s Rules of Order, which means that decisions like the timing of the votes will likely be decided by the convention chairman and by the delegates themselves. The most likely scenario, though, is that there will be plenty of downtime between each vote in order to allow candidates, party officials, and delegates to cobble together a big enough coalition to select a nominee.

How many rounds of voting could we be looking at?

As many as it takes to come to a consensus. In 1924, it took Democrats 103—yes, 103!—ballots to finally settle on John W. Davis as a compromise nominee following a protracted fight between frontrunners William McAdoo and Al Smith. Unsurprisingly after that mess, Davis did not win the general.

 

[Valerie]

With more than half the states having now held their nominating contests, Donald J. Trump and Senator Ted Cruz are quietly directing their attention to a second, shadow election campaign — one that is out of sight, little understood but absolutely critical if Republicans arrive at their national convention with Mr. Trump short of a majority of delegates.

This parallel campaign is to select the individual delegates who will go to Cleveland in July for what could be the first contested convention in American politics in more than 60 years. Chosen through a byzantine process in each state, most of the delegates will become free agents if no one wins a majority on the first ballot.


http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/17/u.../json8.nytimes.com/pages/politics/index.jsonp


The mere prospect that delegates could deny Mr. Trump the nomination led him to predict Wednesday that violence could erupt in such a situation.

 

[rdean]

We know George W. Bush isn't invited.

 

[Valerie]

As the race moves to the West and Northeast, and with many states awarding most delegates based on votes by congressional district, Mr. Cruz and Mr. Kasich may be able to hold back Mr. Trump in Indiana, Wisconsin, Washington, New York and California.

If Mr. Trump continues to pick up delegates at the rate he has won them so far, he will finish with about 1,148 — 89 short of the majority needed to lock up the nomination.

Mr. Cruz’s path to a majority is harder: At his current pace, he would fall 559 short of a majority.

Mr. Kasich, who has no mathematical path to a first-ballot victory in Cleveland, is preparing for a convention-floor fight. He announced late Tuesday that he had hired a new adviser, Stu Spencer, who in 1976 helped President Gerald R. Ford secure the nomination over Ronald Reagan, the last time no candidate arrived at a Republican convention with a majority of delegates.


The most recent conventions that went into multiple ballots were even longer ago: the Democrats in 1952, and the Republicans in 1948.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/17/u.../json8.nytimes.com/pages/politics/index.jsonp

 

[Valerie]

"if no candidate wins a majority of delegates during the first round—which they wouldn’t in this scenario—many of those delegates would then be unbound and allowed to vote however they want during the second round. Even more would become free agents in the rounds that followed, until eventually we’re looking at a free-for-all that would make the Republican debates look like ordered affairs."

 

[Valerie]

i hope trump isn't right about the rioting and imo he has a responsibility to tone it down and do whatever he can to squelch that mindset among his followers as we approach the summer convention.

the process is well established and he and his followers need to respect that process.

 

[Valerie]

Mr. Trump will probably need to win California, which has 172 delegates. California is winnable for Mr. Trump, but it could be a difficult state for him. California includes a mix of well-educated voters who could support Mr. Kasich and conservative voters who could support Mr. Cruz.

 

[Valerie]

it’s worth looking at the calendar now to understand what’s coming. There are important lessons here to incorporate in any assumptions about how the race will play out.

Previewing The GOP Presidential Primary Calendar | RedState

 

[Valerie]

 

[Valerie]

 

[Valerie]

 

[Valerie]

If that all looks a little bewildering and overwhelming, you’re not alone: there’s a ton of variation in how different states do this; states that appear to be winner-take-all are in some cases only so if the winner wins every Congressional District in the state, in other cases so only if the winner takes a majority of the popular vote. Then there’s the filing deadlines and deadlines for printing and mailing ballots, all of which may factor into withdrawal decisions behind the scenes.

Previewing The GOP Presidential Primary Calendar | RedState

 

[Papageorgio]

So what happens if Trump or someone else hasn’t locked up a majority of the delegates before the convention starts?

In a word: chaos. In a few more: Roughly 95 percent of the 2,472 GOP delegates will arrive at the convention “bound” to a candidate—that is, they will be required by their state party (or, in a few cases, state law) to vote for the candidate they were assigned to as a result of their state’s primary or caucus. (The other 5 percent arrive “unbound” and can vote however they like; we’ll get to them later.) That means the first vote tally should look more or less like the delegate trackers kept by the Associated Press and other news outlets. But if no candidate wins a majority of delegates during the first round—which they wouldn’t in this scenario—many of those delegates would then be unbound and allowed to vote however they want during the second round. Even more would become free agents in the rounds that followed, until eventually we’re looking at a free-for-all that would make the Republican debates look like ordered affairs.

Is there time between rounds for negotiations? Or do the votes just come one after another in rapid fire?

Conventions run on a slightly modified version of Robert’s Rules of Order, which means that decisions like the timing of the votes will likely be decided by the convention chairman and by the delegates themselves. The most likely scenario, though, is that there will be plenty of downtime between each vote in order to allow candidates, party officials, and delegates to cobble together a big enough coalition to select a nominee.

How many rounds of voting could we be looking at?

As many as it takes to come to a consensus. In 1924, it took Democrats 103—yes, 103!—ballots to finally settle on John W. Davis as a compromise nominee following a protracted fight between frontrunners William McAdoo and Al Smith. Unsurprisingly after that mess, Davis did not win the general.

So which Republican are you voting for?

 

[Valerie]

my state already voted

 

[Valerie]

What else is there to know?

Lots. There are rounding schemes and recalculations of delegate allocations and other sliding rules that are conditional. As always this process is a patchwork of rules in 50 states. There is a lot of variation; a lot of caveats. FHQ will be doing a tour through all 50 states as we did in 2012 and the additional territories where rules are available and state party officials willing to talk to fill in gaps. Updates will come often over the next couple of months and will be archived here for future reference. And here is the full report on delegate allocation rules from the RNC.

 

[Valerie]

 

[Valerie]

What Are the Different Kinds of Delegates?

There are three types of delegates: At-Large Delegates (AL), Congressional District Delegates (CD), and Republican National Committee Members.

• At-Large Delegates (AL) are statewide delegates who are residents of that state and are selected at large. Each state receives 10 AL delegates plus additional AL delegates based on the state’s past Republican electoral successes.
  (10 delegates + bonus)
• Congressional District (CD) Delegates must be residents of and selected by the congressional district they represent. Each state gets three CD delegates per district.
  (3 delegates per district)
• RNC Members are automatically national convention delegates and include the state’s national committeeman, national committeewoman, and state chair.
  (3 delegates)

The Official Guide to the 2016 Republican Nominating Process

 

[Valerie]

How Are Delegates Allocated Among Candidates?

Each state assigns its delegates according to its own rules in consultation with the RNC and according to its location in the primary calendar. There are three main allocation methods:

• Proportional methods divide the state’s delegates based on results of their primary vote. Most proportional states have a threshold percentage that a candidate must reach to be eligible for delegates.
  
  Proportional states may also award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis for candidates who receive more than 50% of the vote.
  
  *All States with votes between March 1 and March 14 must have proportional allocation.
• Winner-Take-All method awards all of the state’s delegates to the candidate that wins the highest percentage of the state’s votes.
  
  *States are permitted to award their delegates based on winner-take-all after March 14.
• Hybrid states award delegates based on a combination of methods.
  
  *States are permitted to award their delegates based on winner-take-all after March 14.