Enhanced Hurricane Forecasting

[DavidS]

Just got this from an old friend who went to school with me for Meteorology who actually went on to become one:

Hey Dave, I've got some juicy information for you. Just wrapped up a one week class at the National Hurricane Center. There are quite a few changes they are proposing, some of which are certain.

Starting in 2010, the Watches and Warnings will be extended by 12 hrs each. There will be times when there is high confidence and the watches will be issued earlier. This was suppose to start for 09, but the Emergency Managers asked for an extension because material had already been printed for the public for the season.

Beginning this year, they will begin placing adding a "M" to forecast points on their graphics for Major Hurricanes. Instead of just seeing an "H".

They are adding a "Storm Surge Warning" to their suite to reflect Kelvin waves and what happened with Hurricane Dennis and the Florida panhandle.

They are considering doing away with "Inland Hurricane Warnings". One Hurricane Warning for everyone.

And finally, the big one. They will be developing an enhanced Saffir Simpson Scale. This new scale will consider rainfall, wind, storm surge, and size of the storm in the classification. They feel the current scale doesnt reflect the threat appropriately.

They are considering a 7 day forecast graphic, but are not sure how usefull it will be considering the forecast error at 7 days.

They said that intensity forecasts have not improved in 20 years, and thats not likely to change anytime soon.

They have several satellites that are in the works for launch. I learned more about Quickscat than I ever knew was possible. I had no clue these sats measure the waves and amount of sea foam.

There was a ton of stuff covered, and I have to give the forecasters credit for taking the time to teach the class. What an awesome group down there.