At the upcoming OPEC meeting in Vienna on June 14, members will have a lot to talk about. Oil prices have been dropping like a stone and not only because of the bad economic numbers coming out of Europe and China. There's been also been dissent among the OPEC members, particularly Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Saudi Arabia has telegraphed earlier last month that they would increase production, trying to blunt the effect of an Iranian boycott still slated to go into effect July 1. As Saudi daily production has eclipsed 10 million barrels a day, other OPEC members have also been able to ramp their production unexpectedly. Libyan supply is again close to historic norms, quickly recovering from its civil war of last year and Iraq has been able to aggressively increase production, now up to 2.5 millions barrels a day. The upside of all of this production has been a monthly OPEC output of 31.8 million barrels a day, far above their stated output quota of 30m barrels a day.
This is all in spite of a decrease in Iranian production, squeezed slowly and inexorably by economic sanctions and European and Asian customers who are avoiding Iranian crude in expectation of a full boycott. Continuing negotiations on Iranian nuclear aspirations have blunted worries surrounding imminent military action by the West or Iranian threats to retaliate by shutting the Straits of Hormuz, a major choke point of OPEC exports.
Put this all together and you have a futures market that has shed more than $25 a barrel in the past month, dropping European Brent prices under $100 a barrel and West Texas Crude here in the U.S. to $83. Iran is feeling the strain of an oil market in freefall more than any other OPEC nation. They will certainly have the most on the line when the cartel meets, as its budget requires an $85 global price to sustain itself.
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