*** Electoral Vote Predictions! ***

[DiamondDave]

Interesting scenario

I think the close swing states remain close.. that it will come down to the wire in OH... That Ryan has more of an influence in WI than most people think... with OH being close, it helps turnout and voting for Romney in COL, NV, etc

Dunno.. just a gut feeling

Interesting that Colorado and Iowa are now more tightly contested and could go Romney. I am still not at all confident that Wisconsin would go Romney.

I think a possible long shot is Arizona flipping for Obama

I dunno about AZ.. that, to me, seems like just as much of a pipe dream as the Romney supporters calling for a MN victory... I just don't see it happening either way... Could you have IA, NH, CO, or MI going either way?? Yeah.. I just don't see a place with an 6+ point lead for either candidate going the other way unless it is a state like WI where you have a direct candidate influence

 

[auditor0007]

I think the close swing states remain close.. that it will come down to the wire in OH... That Ryan has more of an influence in WI than most people think... with OH being close, it helps turnout and voting for Romney in COL, NV, etc

Dunno.. just a gut feeling

Interesting that Colorado and Iowa are now more tightly contested and could go Romney. I am still not at all confident that Wisconsin would go Romney.

I think a possible long shot is Arizona flipping for Obama

I dunno about AZ.. that, to me, seems like just as much of a pipe dream as the Romney supporters calling for a MN victory... I just don't see it happening either way... Could you have IA, NH, CO, or MI going either way?? Yeah.. I just don't see a place with an 6+ point lead for either candidate going the other way unless it is a state like WI where you have a direct candidate influence

The last presidential poll I have seen for Arizona has Obama up by 2, but that was done by the Behavior Research Center and their numbers seem to have been very skewed toward the president in every poll they have conducted since last year. What stands out in their polling numbers is that they show a very big undecided vote. In this last poll, they are showing 18% undecided. The other issue with AZ is that there haven't been any major polls conducted in nearly a month. At the same time, Carmona has closed the gap with Flake with one reliable poll actually showing him ahead. Again, there really isn't enough polling to say either way if it is that close or not, but the point is that with greater Hispanic turnout for Carmona, Obama could benefit. The reason AZ could be a shocker is that nobody has done any polling.

 

[DiamondDave]

Interesting that Colorado and Iowa are now more tightly contested and could go Romney. I am still not at all confident that Wisconsin would go Romney.

I think a possible long shot is Arizona flipping for Obama

I dunno about AZ.. that, to me, seems like just as much of a pipe dream as the Romney supporters calling for a MN victory... I just don't see it happening either way... Could you have IA, NH, CO, or MI going either way?? Yeah.. I just don't see a place with an 6+ point lead for either candidate going the other way unless it is a state like WI where you have a direct candidate influence

The last presidential poll I have seen for Arizona has Obama up by 2, but that was done by the Behavior Research Center and their numbers seem to have been very skewed toward the president in every poll they have conducted since last year. What stands out in their polling numbers is that they show a very big undecided vote. In this last poll, they are showing 18% undecided. The other issue with AZ is that there haven't been any major polls conducted in nearly a month. At the same time, Carmona has closed the gap with Flake with one reliable poll actually showing him ahead. Again, there really isn't enough polling to say either way if it is that close or not, but the point is that with greater Hispanic turnout for Carmona, Obama could benefit. The reason AZ could be a shocker is that nobody has done any polling.

Single poll... whatever.. I am not getting in to the bullshit of that again.... I was referring to the RCP average.. not some biased Silver analysis or some one off 700 person poll or whatever...

With the situations in AZ, I just don't see it swinging to Obama.. The employment rate worse than the national rate, the federal govt pissing them off about their own election laws, their immigration enforcement laws, etc... While anything is possible, I would sooner bet on Cleveland winning the AFC Championship

 

[Liability]

Romney 300+.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Shocking, the number of people predicting in the 300's for either candidate...

279-259 in favor of Romney.. Romney wins without carrying OH or PA, but sneaking a win in WI

What else are you giving Romney? My 275-263 for Obama number is based on Obama winning Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, and New Hampshire and losing the rest of the swing states but keeping the leans. I'm not seeing how to get from my number to yours.

It will be close. I'm starting to suspect that it will be Wisconsin, not Ohio, that decides this after all.

I'm actually surprised anyone, Left or Right, is predicting a 300+ count for either candidates. Something must have gone massively wrong with the polls for that to happen, and I'm not talking this "oversampling" bs.

 

[DiamondDave]

Shocking, the number of people predicting in the 300's for either candidate...

279-259 in favor of Romney.. Romney wins without carrying OH or PA, but sneaking a win in WI

What else are you giving Romney? My 275-263 for Obama number is based on Obama winning Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, and New Hampshire and losing the rest of the swing states but keeping the leans. I'm not seeing how to get from my number to yours.

It will be close. I'm starting to suspect that it will be Wisconsin, not Ohio, that decides this after all.

I'm actually surprised anyone, Left or Right, is predicting a 300+ count for either candidates. Something must have gone massively wrong with the polls for that to happen, and I'm not talking this "oversampling" bs.

Romney
NV, CO, FLA, NC, VA, WI, IA
Obama
PA, OH, NH, MI

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Nevada going Romney would be a surprise. He hasn't seemed to gain any ground there all year.

 

[DiamondDave]

Nevada going Romney would be a surprise. He hasn't seemed to gain any ground there all year.

Even a NV victory for Obama would keep Romney winning in this scenario... I just think with the unemployment situation the way it is there, it would be a tough one to carry for Obama

 

[AceRothstein]

Obama has led every Nevada poll but one this year and that was in April. Nevada is a lock for Obama.

 

[Old Rocks]

Iowa President Obama 2.0 5 polls, 3 Obama, 2 Romney

Wisconsin President Obama 5.0 4 polls, 3 Obama, one tie

Virginina Governor Romney 0.5 7 polls, 3 Romney, 2 Obama, 2 tie

North Carolina Governor Romney 3.8 5 polls, 3 Romney, 2 tie

Florida Governor Romney 1.2 8 polls 5 Romney, 2 Obama, one tie

Colorado President Obama 0.9 7 polls, 4 Obama, 2 Romney, one tie

Nevada President Obama 2.7 6 polls, all Obama

Iowa, Wisconsin, and Neveda for Romney, not a chance.

Colorado, a little shaky for Obama, but not as shaky as Virginia for Romney.

The numbers are against Romney.

 

[Liability]

LOL.

These polls do not determine who wins.

Hell; they don't even accurately gauge who is presently "leading."

 

[Cheddarmelon]

LOL.

These polls do not determine who wins.

Hell; they don't even accurately gauge who is presently "leading."

LOL facts don't matter. Romney will win because I want him to. LOL

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Nevada going Romney would be a surprise. He hasn't seemed to gain any ground there all year.

Even a NV victory for Obama would keep Romney winning in this scenario... I just think with the unemployment situation the way it is there, it would be a tough one to carry for Obama

I agree. His best path to victory is and remains WI, NV, OH and holding all the leaning states, which he will.

I'll give you credit for being more reasonable than a lot of the loons on here. It's possible Romney will win, but neither he nor Obama are going to crack 300.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

LOL.

These polls do not determine who wins.

Hell; they don't even accurately gauge who is presently "leading."

If your plan is to toss out all of the data or declare everything wrong, then you're no better than the bleeding heart libs that are all emotion, no brains. Worse actually, because typically Cons are pretty emotionless.

 

[rightwinger]

Nevada going Romney would be a surprise. He hasn't seemed to gain any ground there all year.

Even a NV victory for Obama would keep Romney winning in this scenario... I just think with the unemployment situation the way it is there, it would be a tough one to carry for Obama

I agree. His best path to victory is and remains WI, NV, OH and holding all the leaning states, which he will.

I'll give you credit for being more reasonable than a lot of the loons on here. It's possible Romney will win, but neither he nor Obama are going to crack 300.

If Obama takes Ohio and Virginia he will crack 300

 

[Liability]

LOL.

These polls do not determine who wins.

Hell; they don't even accurately gauge who is presently "leading."

If your plan is to toss out all of the data or declare everything wrong, then you're no better than the bleeding heart libs that are all emotion, no brains. Worse actually, because typically Cons are pretty emotionless.

I don't toss everything out. I do recommend that even a derp like you SHOULD, however, take all the shit with a grain of salt.

If that's too much for you, you have permission to go take a Midol.

The FACT is, whether you like it or not or admit it or not, the polls are generally flawed. This is why they don't even agree amongst themselves.

Has this never dawned on you?

 

[AceRothstein]

LOL.

These polls do not determine who wins.

Hell; they don't even accurately gauge who is presently "leading."

You are correct, actual votes do. However, the polls leading up to presidential elections have been fairly accurate in predicting the final outcomes. In 2004 & 2008 the RCP average predicated 48 of 50 states correctly.

 

[Liability]

LOL.

These polls do not determine who wins.

Hell; they don't even accurately gauge who is presently "leading."

LOL facts don't matter. Romney will win because I want him to. LOL

Cheesedickfruit:

You can't articulate your own position coherently. You certainly cannot state mine.

Facts, contrary to your posting history, DO matter.

And Mitt is going to win precisely because facts do matter.

I don't feel your pain. I just mock it.

 

[Liability]

LOL.

These polls do not determine who wins.

Hell; they don't even accurately gauge who is presently "leading."

You are correct, actual votes do. However, the polls leading up to presidential elections have been fairly accurate in predicting the final outcomes. In 2004 & 2008 the RCP average predicated 48 of 50 states correctly.

Go ahead. State the conditions under which polls have been accurate (more or less) in the end.

We'll wait.

 

[AceRothstein]

LOL.

These polls do not determine who wins.

Hell; they don't even accurately gauge who is presently "leading."

You are correct, actual votes do. However, the polls leading up to presidential elections have been fairly accurate in predicting the final outcomes. In 2004 & 2008 the RCP average predicated 48 of 50 states correctly.

Go ahead. State the conditions under which polls have been accurate (more or less) in the end.

We'll wait.

It is the polling average that has been accurate more often than not. What conditions would you like to see?