Electoral Tracker

[Czernobog]

By way of explanation, every elections cycle, there ends up being discussion ad nasueum about polls, and raw popular votes. I realized some time ago that the popular vote is, in many ways, irrelevant. Let us say, for instance, that Trump wins the popular vote in, say the entire North East corridor, but loses California, Texas, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Theoretically, while he may have won the popular vote in a plurality of states, if they are the wrong states, he will still lose the election, because of the electoral college. So, while everyone else debates the daily, and weekly polls, and who is ahead, I spend my time looking at the states, and watching who has what electoral votes. I track it daily, and will post any changes to the electoral map, as they come.

July 26th - Looks like Trump picked up Nevada, and Ohio coming off the convention:

We'll have to see if he can hold on to those. Current count:>

Clinton: 288
Trump: 221
Tied: 29

Florida remains a consistent dead heat.

 

[longknife]

Gee, this certainly reminds me of projections last Summer when the "experts" predicted that Trump had a zero chance of being the GOP nominee.

 

[Czernobog]

Gee, this certainly reminds me of projections last Summer when the "experts" predicted that Trump had a zero chance of being the GOP nominee.

Well, we'll see. I track the map daily, and will post changes as they come.

And, actually it doesn't. What happened last summer was that Trump was ahead the whole time, and everyone kept insisting he would lose his lead.

Here, he's. Not. Ahead.

Sent from my 5054N using Tapatalk

 

[jwoodie]

Hillary better have a lock on 270 electoral votes going in. Late deciders will break for Trump.

 

[Czernobog]

Hillary better have a lock on 270 electoral votes going in. Late deciders will break for Trump.

Currently at 288. I think that's more than 270.

Sent from my 5054N using Tapatalk

 

[Czernobog]

Alight. Time for an electoral update:

After swinging Trump for a couple of day, Ohio is back in play, at a statistical tie:

Putting us at:

Clinton: 288
Trump: 203
Tied: 47

Seems if Trump wants a chance, he's gonna need to steal PA, VA, MI, or MA away from Hillary. Those are the 4 states she's weakest.

By the way, if anyone is curious where I get my data, and graphics, they come from these guys, and you can read about their algorithms, and data metrics here.

 

[Czernobog]

Clinton loses her grip on NH.

Current Count:

Clinton: 284
Trump: 207
Tied: 47

 

[Skylar]

Alight. Time for an electoral update:

After swinging Trump for a couple of day, Ohio is back in play, at a statistical tie:

Putting us at:

Clinton: 288
Trump: 203
Tied: 47

Seems if Trump wants a chance, he's gonna need to steal PA, VA, MI, or MA away from Hillary. Those are the 4 states she's weakest.

By the way, if anyone is curious where I get my data, and graphics, they come from these guys, and you can read about their algorithms, and data metrics here.

Pence will likely help Hillary lock up Virginia. And she's opening up a substantial lead in Pennsylvania.

There needs to be a game changer for Trump. Without it, things don't look good for him.

 

[longknife]

quite what this site predicts:

Who will win the presidency? @ http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

[pwjohn]

Gee, this certainly reminds me of projections last Summer when the "experts" predicted that Trump had a zero chance of being the GOP nominee.

Trump ran against a bunch losers & nobodys ! Any reality tv show star could have done the same thing.

 

[Czernobog]

quite what this site predicts:

Who will win the presidency? @ http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

The problem with Nate's site is that it also says this. And this. It depends on what factors you want to include in the "prediction". I'm not making any "predictions". I am reporting on how the states are shaking out, in real time. This is where the states sit, now, and where the states sit now is Trump trailing by 77 electoral votes. I'm sorry if that offends you, but it is what it is. Reality is not subject to desires. Numbers are just numbers, and you cannot force them to be something other than what they are.

 

[longknife]

quite what this site predicts:

Who will win the presidency? @ http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

The problem with Nate's site is that it also says this. And this. It depends on what factors you want to include in the "prediction". I'm not making any "predictions". I am reporting on how the states are shaking out, in real time. This is where the states sit, now, and where the states sit now is Trump trailing by 77 electoral votes. I'm sorry if that offends you, but it is what it is. Reality is not subject to desires. Numbers are just numbers, and you cannot force them to be something other than what they are.

I was not attacking your information - only providing alternatives.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

By way of explanation, every elections cycle, there ends up being discussion ad nasueum about polls, and raw popular votes. I realized some time ago that the popular vote is, in many ways, irrelevant. Let us say, for instance, that Trump wins the popular vote in, say the entire North East corridor, but loses California, Texas, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Theoretically, while he may have won the popular vote in a plurality of states, if they are the wrong states, he will still lose the election, because of the electoral college. So, while everyone else debates the daily, and weekly polls, and who is ahead, I spend my time looking at the states, and watching who has what electoral votes. I track it daily, and will post any changes to the electoral map, as they come.

July 26th - Looks like Trump picked up Nevada, and Ohio coming off the convention:

We'll have to see if he can hold on to those. Current count:>

Clinton: 288
Trump: 221
Tied: 29

Florida remains a consistent dead heat.

Give Trump both Florida and Ohio, along with Nevada, Iowa, and North Carolina (where Clinton is ahead in that state) – Clinton is elected president with 273 EC votes.

No such worst case scenario exists for Trump, he has no realistic EC path to victory.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Alight. Time for an electoral update:

After swinging Trump for a couple of day, Ohio is back in play, at a statistical tie:

Putting us at:

Clinton: 288
Trump: 203
Tied: 47

Seems if Trump wants a chance, he's gonna need to steal PA, VA, MI, or MA away from Hillary. Those are the 4 states she's weakest.

By the way, if anyone is curious where I get my data, and graphics, they come from these guys, and you can read about their algorithms, and data metrics here.

Pence will likely help Hillary lock up Virginia. And she's opening up a substantial lead in Pennsylvania.

There needs to be a game changer for Trump. Without it, things don't look good for him.

Correct.

Another reason why Kaine was a wise choice.

Clinton understands that Virginia is the lynchpin for an EC victory.

Even if she loses Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, a win in Virginia and Florida will secure her the WH.

 

[Czernobog]

Alight. Time for an electoral update:

After swinging Trump for a couple of day, Ohio is back in play, at a statistical tie:

Putting us at:

Clinton: 288
Trump: 203
Tied: 47

Seems if Trump wants a chance, he's gonna need to steal PA, VA, MI, or MA away from Hillary. Those are the 4 states she's weakest.

By the way, if anyone is curious where I get my data, and graphics, they come from these guys, and you can read about their algorithms, and data metrics here.

Pence will likely help Hillary lock up Virginia. And she's opening up a substantial lead in Pennsylvania.

There needs to be a game changer for Trump. Without it, things don't look good for him.

Correct.

Another reason why Kaine was a wise choice.

Clinton understands that Virginia is the lynchpin for an EC victory.

Even if she loses Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, a win in Virginia and Florida will secure her the WH.

I don't think that Colorado is going to be a problem. Now Pennsylvania? I'm surprised she is doing as well there as she is, for the same reason she is going to lose West Virginia. Pennsylvania depends on coal as much for its manufacturing, as West Virginia does for its mining. I'll be surprised if Clinton holds onto Pennsylvania. Ohio, on the other hand, could be a problem for Trump because of the double whammy of Kasich. Between Kasich doing everything short of publicly saying "Trump sucks, vote for anyone but him," almost guaranteeing that practically no Ohio conservative, who adore Kasich, will vote for Trump, and the progressive Ohio voters, who hate all things Kasich, and Republican, and were guaranteed to vote for Hillary, anyway, I think Trump is gonna have trouble in Ohio.

 

[Skylar]

Alight. Time for an electoral update:

After swinging Trump for a couple of day, Ohio is back in play, at a statistical tie:

Putting us at:

Clinton: 288
Trump: 203
Tied: 47

Seems if Trump wants a chance, he's gonna need to steal PA, VA, MI, or MA away from Hillary. Those are the 4 states she's weakest.

By the way, if anyone is curious where I get my data, and graphics, they come from these guys, and you can read about their algorithms, and data metrics here.

Pence will likely help Hillary lock up Virginia. And she's opening up a substantial lead in Pennsylvania.

There needs to be a game changer for Trump. Without it, things don't look good for him.

Correct.

Another reason why Kaine was a wise choice.

Clinton understands that Virginia is the lynchpin for an EC victory.

Even if she loses Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, a win in Virginia and Florida will secure her the WH.

I don't think that Colorado is going to be a problem. Now Pennsylvania? I'm surprised she is doing as well there as she is, for the same reason she is going to lose West Virginia. Pennsylvania depends on coal as much for its manufacturing, as West Virginia does for its mining. I'll be surprised if Clinton holds onto Pennsylvania. Ohio, on the other hand, could be a problem for Trump because of the double whammy of Kasich. Between Kasich doing everything short of publicly saying "Trump sucks, vote for anyone but him," almost guaranteeing that practically no Ohio conservative, who adore Kasich, will vote for Trump, and the progressive Ohio voters, who hate all things Kasich, and Republican, and were guaranteed to vote for Hillary, anyway, I think Trump is gonna have trouble in Ohio.

Clinton was leadiung by like 9 points before the co

Alight. Time for an electoral update:

After swinging Trump for a couple of day, Ohio is back in play, at a statistical tie:

Putting us at:

Clinton: 288
Trump: 203
Tied: 47

Seems if Trump wants a chance, he's gonna need to steal PA, VA, MI, or MA away from Hillary. Those are the 4 states she's weakest.

By the way, if anyone is curious where I get my data, and graphics, they come from these guys, and you can read about their algorithms, and data metrics here.

Pence will likely help Hillary lock up Virginia. And she's opening up a substantial lead in Pennsylvania.

There needs to be a game changer for Trump. Without it, things don't look good for him.

Correct.

Another reason why Kaine was a wise choice.

Clinton understands that Virginia is the lynchpin for an EC victory.

Even if she loses Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, a win in Virginia and Florida will secure her the WH.

I don't think that Colorado is going to be a problem. Now Pennsylvania? I'm surprised she is doing as well there as she is, for the same reason she is going to lose West Virginia. Pennsylvania depends on coal as much for its manufacturing, as West Virginia does for its mining. I'll be surprised if Clinton holds onto Pennsylvania. Ohio, on the other hand, could be a problem for Trump because of the double whammy of Kasich. Between Kasich doing everything short of publicly saying "Trump sucks, vote for anyone but him," almost guaranteeing that practically no Ohio conservative, who adore Kasich, will vote for Trump, and the progressive Ohio voters, who hate all things Kasich, and Republican, and were guaranteed to vote for Hillary, anyway, I think Trump is gonna have trouble in Ohio.

Clinton was leading by like 9 points in Pennsylvania before the convention. I'd be surprised if she's lost any ground there since it.

 

[Czernobog]

Alight. Time for an electoral update:

After swinging Trump for a couple of day, Ohio is back in play, at a statistical tie:

Putting us at:

Clinton: 288
Trump: 203
Tied: 47

Seems if Trump wants a chance, he's gonna need to steal PA, VA, MI, or MA away from Hillary. Those are the 4 states she's weakest.

By the way, if anyone is curious where I get my data, and graphics, they come from these guys, and you can read about their algorithms, and data metrics here.

Pence will likely help Hillary lock up Virginia. And she's opening up a substantial lead in Pennsylvania.

There needs to be a game changer for Trump. Without it, things don't look good for him.

Correct.

Another reason why Kaine was a wise choice.

Clinton understands that Virginia is the lynchpin for an EC victory.

Even if she loses Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, a win in Virginia and Florida will secure her the WH.

I don't think that Colorado is going to be a problem. Now Pennsylvania? I'm surprised she is doing as well there as she is, for the same reason she is going to lose West Virginia. Pennsylvania depends on coal as much for its manufacturing, as West Virginia does for its mining. I'll be surprised if Clinton holds onto Pennsylvania. Ohio, on the other hand, could be a problem for Trump because of the double whammy of Kasich. Between Kasich doing everything short of publicly saying "Trump sucks, vote for anyone but him," almost guaranteeing that practically no Ohio conservative, who adore Kasich, will vote for Trump, and the progressive Ohio voters, who hate all things Kasich, and Republican, and were guaranteed to vote for Hillary, anyway, I think Trump is gonna have trouble in Ohio.

Clinton was leadiung by like 9 points before the co

Alight. Time for an electoral update:

After swinging Trump for a couple of day, Ohio is back in play, at a statistical tie:

Putting us at:

Clinton: 288
Trump: 203
Tied: 47

Seems if Trump wants a chance, he's gonna need to steal PA, VA, MI, or MA away from Hillary. Those are the 4 states she's weakest.

By the way, if anyone is curious where I get my data, and graphics, they come from these guys, and you can read about their algorithms, and data metrics here.

Pence will likely help Hillary lock up Virginia. And she's opening up a substantial lead in Pennsylvania.

There needs to be a game changer for Trump. Without it, things don't look good for him.

Correct.

Another reason why Kaine was a wise choice.

Clinton understands that Virginia is the lynchpin for an EC victory.

Even if she loses Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, a win in Virginia and Florida will secure her the WH.

I don't think that Colorado is going to be a problem. Now Pennsylvania? I'm surprised she is doing as well there as she is, for the same reason she is going to lose West Virginia. Pennsylvania depends on coal as much for its manufacturing, as West Virginia does for its mining. I'll be surprised if Clinton holds onto Pennsylvania. Ohio, on the other hand, could be a problem for Trump because of the double whammy of Kasich. Between Kasich doing everything short of publicly saying "Trump sucks, vote for anyone but him," almost guaranteeing that practically no Ohio conservative, who adore Kasich, will vote for Trump, and the progressive Ohio voters, who hate all things Kasich, and Republican, and were guaranteed to vote for Hillary, anyway, I think Trump is gonna have trouble in Ohio.

Clinton was leading by like 9 points in Pennsylvania before the convention. I'd be surprised if she's lost any ground there since it.

Maybe. I would just keep an eye on that one, were I you. I think she might have a harder fight there than you think.

Sent from my 5054N using Tapatalk

 

[Skylar]

Alight. Time for an electoral update:

After swinging Trump for a couple of day, Ohio is back in play, at a statistical tie:

Putting us at:

Clinton: 288
Trump: 203
Tied: 47

Seems if Trump wants a chance, he's gonna need to steal PA, VA, MI, or MA away from Hillary. Those are the 4 states she's weakest.

By the way, if anyone is curious where I get my data, and graphics, they come from these guys, and you can read about their algorithms, and data metrics here.

Pence will likely help Hillary lock up Virginia. And she's opening up a substantial lead in Pennsylvania.

There needs to be a game changer for Trump. Without it, things don't look good for him.

Correct.

Another reason why Kaine was a wise choice.

Clinton understands that Virginia is the lynchpin for an EC victory.

Even if she loses Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, a win in Virginia and Florida will secure her the WH.

I don't think that Colorado is going to be a problem. Now Pennsylvania? I'm surprised she is doing as well there as she is, for the same reason she is going to lose West Virginia. Pennsylvania depends on coal as much for its manufacturing, as West Virginia does for its mining. I'll be surprised if Clinton holds onto Pennsylvania. Ohio, on the other hand, could be a problem for Trump because of the double whammy of Kasich. Between Kasich doing everything short of publicly saying "Trump sucks, vote for anyone but him," almost guaranteeing that practically no Ohio conservative, who adore Kasich, will vote for Trump, and the progressive Ohio voters, who hate all things Kasich, and Republican, and were guaranteed to vote for Hillary, anyway, I think Trump is gonna have trouble in Ohio.

Clinton was leadiung by like 9 points before the co

Alight. Time for an electoral update:

After swinging Trump for a couple of day, Ohio is back in play, at a statistical tie:

Putting us at:

Clinton: 288
Trump: 203
Tied: 47

Seems if Trump wants a chance, he's gonna need to steal PA, VA, MI, or MA away from Hillary. Those are the 4 states she's weakest.

By the way, if anyone is curious where I get my data, and graphics, they come from these guys, and you can read about their algorithms, and data metrics here.

Pence will likely help Hillary lock up Virginia. And she's opening up a substantial lead in Pennsylvania.

There needs to be a game changer for Trump. Without it, things don't look good for him.

Correct.

Another reason why Kaine was a wise choice.

Clinton understands that Virginia is the lynchpin for an EC victory.

Even if she loses Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, a win in Virginia and Florida will secure her the WH.

I don't think that Colorado is going to be a problem. Now Pennsylvania? I'm surprised she is doing as well there as she is, for the same reason she is going to lose West Virginia. Pennsylvania depends on coal as much for its manufacturing, as West Virginia does for its mining. I'll be surprised if Clinton holds onto Pennsylvania. Ohio, on the other hand, could be a problem for Trump because of the double whammy of Kasich. Between Kasich doing everything short of publicly saying "Trump sucks, vote for anyone but him," almost guaranteeing that practically no Ohio conservative, who adore Kasich, will vote for Trump, and the progressive Ohio voters, who hate all things Kasich, and Republican, and were guaranteed to vote for Hillary, anyway, I think Trump is gonna have trouble in Ohio.

Clinton was leading by like 9 points in Pennsylvania before the convention. I'd be surprised if she's lost any ground there since it.

Maybe. I would just keep an eye on that one, were I you. I think she might have a harder fight there than you think.

Sent from my 5054N using Tapatalk

Industry fueled by coal and the coal industry are two very different things. The degree of separation will likely produce a profound difference between Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

With Pennsylvania by far the bigger prize.

 

[Czernobog]

Pence will likely help Hillary lock up Virginia. And she's opening up a substantial lead in Pennsylvania.

There needs to be a game changer for Trump. Without it, things don't look good for him.

Correct.

Another reason why Kaine was a wise choice.

Clinton understands that Virginia is the lynchpin for an EC victory.

Even if she loses Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, a win in Virginia and Florida will secure her the WH.

I don't think that Colorado is going to be a problem. Now Pennsylvania? I'm surprised she is doing as well there as she is, for the same reason she is going to lose West Virginia. Pennsylvania depends on coal as much for its manufacturing, as West Virginia does for its mining. I'll be surprised if Clinton holds onto Pennsylvania. Ohio, on the other hand, could be a problem for Trump because of the double whammy of Kasich. Between Kasich doing everything short of publicly saying "Trump sucks, vote for anyone but him," almost guaranteeing that practically no Ohio conservative, who adore Kasich, will vote for Trump, and the progressive Ohio voters, who hate all things Kasich, and Republican, and were guaranteed to vote for Hillary, anyway, I think Trump is gonna have trouble in Ohio.

Clinton was leadiung by like 9 points before the co

Pence will likely help Hillary lock up Virginia. And she's opening up a substantial lead in Pennsylvania.

There needs to be a game changer for Trump. Without it, things don't look good for him.

Correct.

Another reason why Kaine was a wise choice.

Clinton understands that Virginia is the lynchpin for an EC victory.

Even if she loses Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, a win in Virginia and Florida will secure her the WH.

I don't think that Colorado is going to be a problem. Now Pennsylvania? I'm surprised she is doing as well there as she is, for the same reason she is going to lose West Virginia. Pennsylvania depends on coal as much for its manufacturing, as West Virginia does for its mining. I'll be surprised if Clinton holds onto Pennsylvania. Ohio, on the other hand, could be a problem for Trump because of the double whammy of Kasich. Between Kasich doing everything short of publicly saying "Trump sucks, vote for anyone but him," almost guaranteeing that practically no Ohio conservative, who adore Kasich, will vote for Trump, and the progressive Ohio voters, who hate all things Kasich, and Republican, and were guaranteed to vote for Hillary, anyway, I think Trump is gonna have trouble in Ohio.

Clinton was leading by like 9 points in Pennsylvania before the convention. I'd be surprised if she's lost any ground there since it.

Maybe. I would just keep an eye on that one, were I you. I think she might have a harder fight there than you think.

Sent from my 5054N using Tapatalk

Industry fueled by coal and the coal industry are two very different things. The degree of separation will likely produce a profound difference between Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

With Pennsylvania by far the bigger prize.

You may have a point there...

Sent from my 5054N using Tapatalk

 

[jwoodie]

Professional Political Prognosticators have been wrong all along regarding the 2016 election...