First, we will not have consumer price inflation. Even with all the money printing, the forces of deflation - including the pandemic - are simply too powerful. CPI may be a problem in 10-20 years, but it isn't now.
Second, we are in a deep recession / depression. For a number of reasons, this will not be a repeat of the 1930s. But it will be the biggest economic decline since then.
Third, CDOs are a 2008 thing, not a 2020 thing. What you are referring to is CLOs. CLOs are a thing. They aren't as big of a thing as the CDOs of the GFC, but they will cause economic dislocation over the next few years.
Fourth, the actions of the Federal government and the Federal Reserve have prevented a repeat of the 1930s. But it is creating massive government debt. That debt will be monetized over the decades to come. Interest rates will stay low for a very long time.
Fifth, the pension problem was a problem before COVID. This makes it worse. Expect a ton of pressure for President Biden to bail out the states, which Democrats favor and Republicans - rightly - oppose.
Sixth, MMT will become a thing. Google it.
Seventh, there will be an economic boom in 2022/23. The economy will not fully heal until a vaccine is fully available, which will not happen until the back half of 2021. When that happens, the pent-up demand will cause a boom in consumer spending, leading to the re-election of President Klobachur after President Biden resigns due to Alzheimer's. The anti-vaxxers can do everyone a favor and let COVID off them.
Eighth, the US will onshore more of it's critical production, probably through the use of tariffs. This will officially deep-six the Friedman/Reagan/Thatcher era, which was on it's deathbed after the GFC. It will lead to lower GDP growth, but higher wages and less inequality as society reorders itself to no longer prioritize economic efficiency and the primacy of shareholders' interests.
Ninth, excess supply wipes out most of the fracking industry. Excess supply will not rebalance until 2022 at the earliest. Probably 2023. Oil production in this country grew from 8 million barrels a day to 13 million barrels a day in five years. It will fall by 4 million barrels as wells shut in. Much of the oil industry capacity is lost. There could be revolutions in countries which require much higher oil prices to function. There will be a wave of bankruptcies in the oil patch that we haven't seen since the 1980s. However, the seeds of capacity destruction will sow the seeds of $80-$100 oil in the back half of the decade. ETFs include XLE, XOP and OIH. The first ETF is the safest, the latter two the riskiest.
Tenth, there has been no investment in copper mines globally for years. This is leading to a supply shortage, which will likely hit in the middle of the decade. This will happen regardless of the adoption of electronic vehicles. Oil is going to be around for a long time. But the adoption of EVs requires more copper. This will lead to a boom in copper prices, to as high as maybe $10 a pound. COPX is the ETF to play this. It's at $13 today. It was at $60 a few years ago. It will break $100.
Eleventh, natural gas is at $1.80 mBCF. The rise of EVs means more electricity generation. That will lead to an increase in nat gas demand. Expect natty to top $3 in the back half of the decade, if not higher. The destruction of the oil industry benefits nat gas because it is a byproduct of oil production. There is an ocean of gas under the earth's crust in this country, so it is unlikely to hit $17 as it did in the 00s. But it will be higher.
