Mac1958
Diamond Member
Fed drops 25bps as expected.
No big surprises from Powell. Hiring is soft, economy slowing a bit, spending still doing okay, real estate dropping. Expected GDP 1.7% this year, 2.5% next year, which would be good. Inflation elevated, but I think they'll end up increasing the target rate to 2.50% or 3.00%.
The AI buildout is responsible for about 1.00% to 1.25% of GDP for the year, so the rest of the economy has to catch up. Maybe the interest rate drop will goose it a bit. The AI buildout is now hamstrung by energy demand, but it's still going pretty strong, with chip demand far exceeding supply.
"Risks are to the upside for unemployment, and risks are to the upside for inflation". So that's the conundrum the Fed is dealing with right now.
Mixed data, as always. Fingers crossed, as always.
No big surprises from Powell. Hiring is soft, economy slowing a bit, spending still doing okay, real estate dropping. Expected GDP 1.7% this year, 2.5% next year, which would be good. Inflation elevated, but I think they'll end up increasing the target rate to 2.50% or 3.00%.
The AI buildout is responsible for about 1.00% to 1.25% of GDP for the year, so the rest of the economy has to catch up. Maybe the interest rate drop will goose it a bit. The AI buildout is now hamstrung by energy demand, but it's still going pretty strong, with chip demand far exceeding supply.
"Risks are to the upside for unemployment, and risks are to the upside for inflation". So that's the conundrum the Fed is dealing with right now.
Mixed data, as always. Fingers crossed, as always.
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