Zincwarrior
Diamond Member
I don’t see this as being anything but a good thing. Diversifying oil shipments mitigates risk as a basic premise.
The Hormuz Squeeze Is Redrawing the Oil Map for Good
Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Iraq are pouring money into pipelines, rail and storage to keep oil flowing even when the strait isn’t
For decades, the Persian Gulf’s energy map converged on a single chokepoint: the Strait of Hormuz. Now, spurred by the Iran war, the region’s petrostates are rushing to draw new lines to circumvent it.
Across the Gulf, governments are pouring billions into new oil pipelines, rail corridors and energy storage hubs to bypass the waterway in what is set to become one of the most durable outcomes of the conflict. The new energy links are part of a broader redrawing of the region’s logistics map, shifting trade toward trucking, rail and new ports.
“The legacy of the crisis will result in the construction of infrastructure to bypass the Strait of Hormuz,” said Hamad Hussain, commodities economist at London-based research firm Capital Economics. “The genie is out of the bottle given that the longstanding threat of Iran effectively closing the strait has now materialized.”
Even if Washington and Tehran reach a deal to reopen the strait and maritime exports resume, the shift toward an export network with multiple exits will endure because the conflict has proved that robust contingency plans are essential, officials and analysts say. Saudi Arabia’s ability to export oil via a previously underused fallback pipeline demonstrated the strategic value of a backup, while in recent weeks the United Arab Emirates and Iraq have launched plans to expand pipelines of their own.
The stakes extend far beyond the Gulf. Bypassing a waterway that once moved a fifth of the world’s oil will reshape how securely energy reaches all corners of the globe.
The conflict showed “too much of the world’s energy still moves through too few chokepoints,” said Sultan Al Jaber, the U.A.E.’s minister of industry and advanced technology, at a recent Atlantic Council forum. That was now driving Abu Dhabi’s accelerated plans to sidestep Hormuz, he added.
“Energy security is no longer just about your ability to continue to produce,” said Al Jaber, who is also the head of state-owned oil giant Adnoc. “It is about routes, access, storage and redundancy.”
The strait remains the most economical export route and will likely see renewed use once it reopens, analysts say. Bypassing it takes time, money and delicate cross-border diplomacy. Iraq’s proposed new routes, for example, would require not just new pipelines, but agreements with Jordan, Syria or Turkey over security, transit and export rights.
