I'm not certain, either, but I am certain he won't need nearly as much as Hillary will; she will have trouble with turnout, despite all the breast beating by the desperate. She isn't going to be getting any landslides.
Reality is rather the opposite.
Hillary's turnout machine is killer. Her team is operating as if she's 10 points behind, clawing to get every last Democratic voter registered and to the polls.
Trump? He's doing nothing in that regard. His team has no ground game at all.
Motivation? Republicans are staying home rather than vote for their nominee. That's not the case with Democrats. For example, Hillary is running ahead in Arizona, supposedly a safe red state, largely because so many Mormons are staying home.