Does Pelosi Have The Numbers?

Annie

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Going to be a long weekend:

Teague To Vote No; Pelosi?s Margin Now Zero

Teague To Vote No; Pelosi’s Margin Now Zero
By Ed Carson
Fri., March 19, '10 10:04 PM ET
Tags: Teague - Democrats - Health Care - ObamaCare - Abortion
Harry Teague of New Mexico will vote no.

I had hoped to have a chance to vote on a bill that provided affordable health care options to all American families, but after reviewing the final health care reform proposal, I do not believe that the bill does enough to contain costs and it definitely does not do enough to rein in the out of control insurance companies that are driving up healthcare costs in this country. In fact, I believe we are doing more for the insurance companies than we are for the people who need this coverage, and that is why, despite the positive steps it takes, I must vote against this bill.​

By some measures Teague was viewed as a lean no, by others undecided. The road to victory for Pelosi without an abortion deal is narrowing. The liberal Firedoglake.com now says Pelosi may have to run the table to win without the Stu-pack.

If you look at the numbers below, you understand why this is consequential. Teague puts the definite No votes at 210, with five leaners, four of them part of the Stupak bloc. There are only 8 undecideds left, and 208 Yes votes with leaners. So Pelosi would have to get all 8, including Stupak bloc member Kathy Dahlkemper, and hold Marcy Kaptur (who probably shouldn’t be a lean Yes). Failing that, she could try to flip Glenn Nye, or go to one of her committee chairs voting No (Ike Skelton, Collin Peterson) and ask them to walk the plank.

Update: Looks there is a deal to reinsert the Stupak language strictly banning abortion funding via an enrollment corrections bill to win over some or all of the Stupak Democrats. Don't ask me what that means, though there seem to be real questions as to whether this could actually work via House and Senate rules. Pro-choice Democrats are not happy with the idea, though.
Links at site
 

Brubricker

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Pelosi will spend Saturday trying to get the votes without the Stupak people. If she doesn't have enough of them on board by Sunday morning she will cave in to their abortion demands in order to get their votes. On way or another, this thing is going to get done.
 
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Annie

Annie

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Pelosi will spend Saturday trying to get the votes without the Stupak people. If she doesn't have enough of them on board by Sunday morning she will cave in to their abortion demands in order to get their votes. On way or another, this thing is going to get done.

Democrats Woo Abortion Foes in Push for Health Bill - NYTimes.com

March 19, 2010
Democrats Woo Abortion Foes in Push for Health Bill
By DAVID M. HERSZENHORN and ROBERT PEAR

WASHINGTON — House Democratic leaders late Friday were exploring the possibility of a deal with abortion opponents that would clinch the final votes to pass major health care legislation, but they faced stiff resistance from lawmakers who support abortion rights.

It was not immediately clear if the bill could win approval without some concessions to Democrats seeking tighter abortion restrictions.

In similar late-hour wrangling in November, Representative Bart Stupak, Democrat of Michigan, succeeded in winning approval of tight limits on insurance coverage of abortions in the House health care bill....
 
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Pelosi will spend Saturday trying to get the votes without the Stupak people. If she doesn't have enough of them on board by Sunday morning she will cave in to their abortion demands in order to get their votes. On way or another, this thing is going to get done.

Yep. That's pretty much how it will go.
 
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Annie

Annie

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Probably, but just went and looked at FDL, talk about herding cats:

Stupak Abortion Language to Be Substituted for Senate Language in Deal to Secure Health Care Votes | Firedoglake

...The deal calls for Stupak to have a vote on his amendment either before or after the House votes to confirm the Senate bill on Sunday. Stupak is confident that he has the votes to pass the measure, and is happy to have the vote after the House passes the Senate bill. He believes that by using a “tie bar” approach, his amendment would be “tied” to the health care bill — which would require just 51 votes in the Senate.

Pro-choice members of the House, however, are demanding that the vote on the Concurrent Resolution happen before the House confirms the Senate bill. If in fact it passes, they plan to vote against confirming the Senate bill. They want Rep. Diana Degette to release the names of the 41 cosigners to her letter who pledged to vote against any bill that restricts a woman’s right to choose, and they are angry that the White House has been whipping to push through the Stupak deal.

“It is outrageous that a Democratic Speaker, a Democratic Majority Leader and a Democratic President should support rolling back women’s reproductive rights,” says one member of the group.

Alan Grayson, who voted against the Stupak Amendment when it went before the House last October, now has 80 cosponsors for his public option amendment, but has not been granted a floor vote.

“I wonder why we can have a vote to please the anti-choice clique, and we can’t have a vote on the public option,” he says...
 
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Annie

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and who'd have thought that the House doesn't trust the Senate? LOL!

Senate Won’t Release Letter to Calm Nervous House Members on Reconciliation - Roll Call

Senate Won’t Release Letter to Calm Nervous House Members on Reconciliation

March 19, 2010, 5:23 p.m.
By Emily Pierce
Roll Call Staff

Senate Democratic leaders have decided they will not publicly release a health care reform letter signed by their rank and file intended to calm nervous House Democrats before their historic vote this weekend on the comprehensive Senate-passed measure and a budget reconciliation bill of fixes.
Sources said a handful of Democratic Senators asked Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to keep the letter private. The missive laid out a set of principles that Senatorial signatories would pledge to support in the health care reconciliation bill, which will need to be passed by the Senate after House action.

“The purpose is to give assurances to the House, and that can be done privately,” said one senior Senate Democratic aide.

Reid spokesman Jim Manley declined to comment except to say that Democratic leaders are “confident that the House understands the Senate is prepared to deliver.”

One senior House Democratic source said the letter had not yet been delivered to the chamber.

And one Senate Democratic source indicated that Reid had not yet been able to round up the 51 signatures he needed to provide the assurance that the Senate would be able to pass the reconciliation measure. However, the source cautioned that the inability to get 51 votes was not because Reid didn’t have personal commitments from 51 or more Senators, but because many Democratic Senators are squeamish about sticking their necks out before the House has passed the bill.

If the House passes both measures this weekend, the Senate will take up the reconciliation bill next week.
 

Zona

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Calm down. Dont worry. Pelosi will be fine and this will pass. No problem. Woohoo.
 

Avatar4321

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Calm down. Dont worry. Pelosi will be fine and this will pass. No problem. Woohoo.

If no problem were the case, this vote would have been done last year.
 
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Annie

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I'm not surprised that the CBO would show that, but timing would surprise me.

OTOH right now there seems to be at least the 216 votes needed. Would this change any of them?
 

Sarah G

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I just heard 207 but if you want to be optimistic, 212.
 
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If it goes to the wire, Pelosi will amend the abortion language to bring Stupek's votes on board.... but that might throw the hard left into a fury and cost them votes there.

"What to do?" "What to do?"

One thing is for sure.... fat lady hasn't started singing yet. If I had any heart, I would feel sorry for Pelosi but I find myself hoping the stress of it all plays hell with her health.
 

Mr.Fitnah

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Not yet , but the progressives are unrelenting they have been at this for more then 50 years . They will never stop, what they get when they win is a total collapse of the global economy.
 

Claudette

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If it goes to the wire, Pelosi will amend the abortion language to bring Stupek's votes on board.... but that might throw the hard left into a fury and cost them votes there.

"What to do?" "What to do?"

One thing is for sure.... fat lady hasn't started singing yet. If I had any heart, I would feel sorry for Pelosi but I find myself hoping the stress of it all plays hell with her health.

I don't think they can ammend it in the house.

It has to go as written now. If they pass it then it goes back to the Senate. They can ammend it there. Though from what I understand the House doesn't trust the Senate and the Senate can make changes to it and send it back to the House.

Its not a done deal by any means.

Jeeze. What a peice of shit bill this is.
 

Yurt

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it will pass, the dems will not care this harms the economy, they won, get over it and as long as it pisses off the gop, fuck the country
 

Zona

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