As the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 coronavirus continues to climb, here’s something to keep in mind: The number can only climb. It can’t go down.
Which can produce a misleading sense that the virus is more pervasive than it really is.
Here’s why.
Health authorities issue several kinds of numbers when discussing COVID-19. Confirmed cases. Deaths. Numbers of countries and regions where cases have been recorded.
Deaths are straightforward: this is the number of people who have died from the disease: 2,871 globally as of late Friday afternoon. But only a small percentage of people infected with COVID-19 die from it.
Confirmed cases by country/region is simple, too: the number of cases in a country or region (such as Hong Kong). Sixty-two countries and regions had recorded at least one case as of late Friday afternoon.
Total confirmed cases is the number of people anywhere who have tested positive for the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the specific coronavirus that causes COVID-19 — whether they have died, recovered, or are still infected or sick. This number was 84,119 as of late Friday afternoon.
Although there is a chance that further investigation could slightly affect this number at some point — a false positive test, for example — the overall trend will be a continued climb. In other words, the number of confirmed cases can never go down, only up.
Meanwhile, total recovered cases is a number not often reported. It describes people who have tested positive (and may have experienced symptoms) but who are now well.
As of late Friday afternoon, 36,688 people are listed as recovered – and most people do recover. But a person listed as recovered would still be included in the Confirmed Cases count.
Emphasis added. Article is from 28 Feb.