I see you are basing this claim on Jack turban's study (always a mistake to rely on him), which uses data culled from the usts study. Multiple issues with this study, as you can see in the comments published to the study. Just a few (there are more) below:
1) Respondents to the usts did not understand what gnrh were, and over 70% claimed to have suppressed their puberty after the age of 18 (really).
Good catch!
2) No control for mental health. those more stable are more likely to be approved for gnrh per wapth. Those deemed with serious MH issues are to be denied blockers per wpath (obviously those with more MH problems are more likely to suicide.
Well there you go.
3) Suicide attempts and ideation were exceedingly high for both groups. From the study: ideation (75% vs 90%) and attempts 42% blocked vs 51% not blocked).
Another good point. I dissected this study for the
Curried Goats benefit on another thread. Since he re-ran this study, I'll re-run the dissection. I took some time off the board right before he posted it again, he may have felt he could put one over on others. Thanks to your additional observations, that won't happen.
Here is my analysis which made different observations:
There were some methodological problems with the study. Yes it had a "control group" in a layman's meaning, but it would not be an experimental study since all events studied happened prior to the study.
To have an actual experimental study with a control group, a large group of similar individuals would have to be divided into two subgroups with one subgroup getting whatever treatment is being studied and the other subgroup being provided some sort of placebo for that treatment. I'm not sure that can ever ethically be done in the case of hormones for children, so I don't know that you will ever have such evidence. All of this study was based on self reports, that is Self-reports of Desiring hormone replacement, self-reports of getting or not getting hormone replacements, and self-reports of suicidal ideation.
Since the participants are all young transgender adults, one would not expect them to be unbiased in reporting those things. Someone who may have been annoyed as an adolescent for being denied hormone replacement, or someone who looks back and wishes he had gotten hormone replacement, would have a motivation to claim suicidal ideation in such a study. Obviously when you do a study like that, the participants know exactly what kind of result you are hoping for.
Why would the researchers hope for a certain result instead of Simply seeking the truth? There is an easy answer if you look toward the end of the study at who funded the study. It was Pfizer, the very company that makes money from selling these hormones. I am tempted to give a lengthy explanation of why that could lead to bias, but instead I think I'll just say give me a break.
(here is the quote from the study:
Funding: JLT received a pilot research award for general psychiatry residents from The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry,
supported by Industry Sponsors (Arbor and Pfizer), an award from the National Institute of Mental Health (MH094612), and a fellowship from The Sorensen Foundation. ASK received a grant from Health Resources and Services Administration Bureau of Primary Health Care (U30CS22742). The sponsors of this research did not play any role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.)
Suppose they did a study of 20-year-olds who had wanted a motorcycle when they were kids (sponsored by Yamaha). Suppose they divided those 20-year-olds into those who received a motorcycle and those who did not receive a motorcycle. No doubt many of the non motorcycle recipients would say that they had suicidal ideation. "I'll kill myself if I don't get what I want" is a common immature attitude among people who are actually supposed to be immature because - and this is the point the Democrats seem to miss - they are kids.
That study would not be evidence that every kid that wants a motorcycle should be given one. Because other important data for that group of kids might be how many of them died on a motorcycle before they became old enough for the study? How would we know if they are dead? Well, that is the problem with calling a study of past events an experiment.
If they had started with a group of children who wanted motorcycles and 10 years later looked at motorcycle deaths among those who got one and among those who did not, I think it's safe to assume that the ones who got a motorcycle would be found to be more likely to have died on a motorcycle.
An important Point missed in all of this is that the human brain does not develop to the point of full maturity and making decisions like that until the mid 20s. Many decisions like going to college or joining the military or getting married can safely be made by 18-year-olds. But that's because the options are somewhat limited, and there is plenty of guidance from society as a whole including parents Educators and Friends to point them in the right direction.
It seems that the only guidance adolescents get about transgender treatment comes from highly agendaized educators and profit motivated Healthcare providers, and from social media.
The study you linked said that the results presented were "after adjusting for potential confounders." Can you explain that in your own words what were the "confounders" and why were the adjustments valid?