Did the stimulus work? A review of the nine best studies on the subject

[code1211]

The bill performed as promised, to stop the job lost. Nowhere did the president promise 8% unemployment. The council of economic advisers estimated it would go below 8% and qualified their estimate pointing out the margin of error and the many assumptions the estimate was based. The stimulus reduced the monthly job loss from 600,000 a month to 114,000 a month job gain. It performed exactly as Obama said and yes it was a success. The only flaw in the stimulus was it was not large enough.

How do you figure? Since the Obama stimulus was passed the US has lost two and a half million jobs. The stimulus was an abject failure. Germany refused to do a huge stimulus like we did, calling it fiscally unsound. So we spent a trillion on stimulus and they didn't. So guess who's economy recovered quicker...theirs or ours? Sorry, Flopper but this Administrations Keynesian "experiment" was a flop.

Effects of passing the stimulus were not immediate. The tax cuts, which were about 1/3 of the bill and the job fund allocation took some months to implement and several more months for the economy to respond. If you look at seasonally adjusted US non-farm labor from the BLS, it shows beginning in the end of 2009 a slow down in job loss followed by a gradual increase in employment resulting in about a 1.6 million job growth.

Browse US Employment Data

Just a second. We have a call coming in from reality: About $770,000,000,000 produces 1,600,000 jobs? That's about $481,250 per job.

Must be public sector union jobs.

Did they have health care?

 

[Brutus]

I’m inclined to believe that the preponderance of evidence indicates the stimulus worked.
[/B]

of course if taxing and spending money worked we 'd never have to worry about recessions, depressions, and unemployment again.

of course it doesn't work; how could it? Why would government spending be stimulative and taxing away the money for it not be counter stimulative.

It amounts to nothing more than pandering to the pure ignorance of liberals

 

[Sundial]

It's amazing how poor people's memories are. A year and a half ago - this would be the end of Bush's term - stocks were falling a thousand points a day, Wall Street banks were going down like dominos, people were afraid to keep money in a bank unless it was FDIC insured, banks were afraid to lend money to each other, and corporations were like GM and AIG were going belly-up. People - particularly the same ones who now claim the stimulus "didn't work" - were warning about the end of the world, and the collapse of the entire financial system.

Now, a year and a half later, with the crisis itself averted, and the economy slowly on the mend, those same people say it didn't work because we're not back to full employment yet.

And, to add injury to insult, those same people, yet again, are the ones who've deprived us of the one tool necessary and sufficient to speed the recovery along - the ability to deficit spend.

They have no plan themselves - other than to raise taxes on the middle-class and to cut spending, which is like feeding poison to sick patient.

We could have full employment, right now, were we committed to a deficit sufficient to reach that goal. It's the Republicans who've stopped us from achieving it.

 

[SFC Ollie]

It's amazing how poor people's memories are. A year and a half ago - this would be the end of Bush's term - stocks were falling a thousand points a day, Wall Street banks were going down like dominos, people were afraid to keep money in a bank unless it was FDIC insured, banks were afraid to lend money to each other, and corporations were like GM and AIG were going belly-up. People - particularly the same ones who now claim the stimulus "didn't work" - were warning about the end of the world, and the collapse of the entire financial system.

Now, a year and a half later, with the crisis itself averted, and the economy slowly on the mend, those same people say it didn't work because we're not back to full employment yet.

And, to add injury to insult, those same people, yet again, are the ones who've deprived us of the one tool necessary and sufficient to speed the recovery along - the ability to deficit spend.

They have no plan themselves - other than to raise taxes on the middle-class and to cut spending, which is like feeding poison to sick patient.

We could have full employment, right now, were we committed to a deficit sufficient to reach that goal. It's the Republicans who've stopped us from achieving it.

Just when is enough enough for you folks? We are so far in debt already that none of us alive today will see the country in the black. I doubt our children ever will. And what answer do we get from the left? SPEND MORE! You're all fucking crazy........

 

[Oddball]

Effects of passing the stimulus were not immediate......

Indeed...They're nonexistent.

 

[Oddball]

An economic projection is not a goal. It's an estimate of what is likely to happen. Obama didn't actually project anything other than unemployment would reach ten percent and it would come down. He was right on both counts.

The stimulus was certainly a success since it stopped the massive job losses. Job losses went from 600,000 the month before it was passed to a net job gain today. You can certainly argue that it was a failure because unemployment rates did not reach 8% but had they reached 8% you would contend it was a failure because it didn't reach 7%. However, I think the 600,000/mo that were losing their jobs would certainly consider it a success.

Obama is now planning to introduce a second job stimulus bill which will drive the right off the deep end. It certainly won't pass, but it will provide the ammunition he needs to paint the Republicans as the real job killers.

What utter tripe.

The projection was 8% and unemployment topped 10%...It remains well above that level if you count those who have run out of unemployment benefits and those who have quit looking for work.

There is absolutely no way you can back up the fantasy of "jobs saved"....That one is the biggest heaps of unfalsifiable, post-hoc-ergo-propter-hoc horseshit of all time.

By any metric used by people who keep their feet planted in Realityville, the succubus was a towering failure...And the only thing that bullshitters like you can do is claim that failure is evidence that even more failure is called for.

The bill performed as promised, to stop the job lost. Nowhere did the president promise 8% unemployment. The council of economic advisers estimated it would go below 8% and qualified their estimate pointing out the margin of error and the many assumptions the estimate was based. The stimulus reduced the monthly job loss from 600,000 a month to 114,000 a month job gain. It performed exactly as Obama said and yes it was a success. The only flaw in the stimulus was it was not large enough.

The bill and the spending didn't perform for shit...And I didn't claim that anyone promised only 8%...It was, however, the number bandied out by Boiking and his toadies as a gimmick to sell the disaster.

Your claim that the succubus reduced job loss is more post hoc ergo propter hoc crapola.

Likewise, as I've pointed out numerous times, your bogus claim that it wasn't large enough is entirely unfalsifiable or objectively provable in any way....Saying that enough vestal virgins weren't thrown into the volcano is more credible.

 

[Sundial]

What utter tripe.

The projection was 8% and unemployment topped 10%...It remains well above that level if you count those who have run out of unemployment benefits and those who have quit looking for work.

There is absolutely no way you can back up the fantasy of "jobs saved"....That one is the biggest heaps of unfalsifiable, post-hoc-ergo-propter-hoc horseshit of all time.

By any metric used by people who keep their feet planted in Realityville, the succubus was a towering failure...And the only thing that bullshitters like you can do is claim that failure is evidence that even more failure is called for.

The bill performed as promised, to stop the job lost. Nowhere did the president promise 8% unemployment. The council of economic advisers estimated it would go below 8% and qualified their estimate pointing out the margin of error and the many assumptions the estimate was based. The stimulus reduced the monthly job loss from 600,000 a month to 114,000 a month job gain. It performed exactly as Obama said and yes it was a success. The only flaw in the stimulus was it was not large enough.

The bill and the spending didn't perform for shit...And I didn't claim that anyone promised only 8%...It was, however, the number bandied out by Boiking and his toadies as a gimmick to sell the disaster.

Your claim that the succubus reduced job loss is more post hoc ergo propter hoc crapola.

Likewise, as I've pointed out numerous times, your bogus claim that it wasn't large enough is entirely unfalsifiable or objectively provable in any way....Saying that enough vestal virgins weren't thrown into the volcano is more credible.

And yet you can't find one quote where Obama "bandied" 8% - or any other number?

 

[Oddball]

Back in early January, when Barack Obama was still President-elect, two of his chief economic advisers — leading proponents of a stimulus bill — predicted that the passage of a large economic-aid package would boost the economy and keep the unemployment rate below 8%.

Read more: Barack Obama's Stimulus Plan: Failing by Its Own Measure - TIME

Let me guess...The editors at Time are part of the VRWC.

 

[Sundial]

Back in early January, when Barack Obama was still President-elect, two of his chief economic advisers — leading proponents of a stimulus bill — predicted that the passage of a large economic-aid package would boost the economy and keep the unemployment rate below 8%.

Read more: Barack Obama's Stimulus Plan: Failing by Its Own Measure - TIME

Let me guess...The editors at Time are part of the VRWC.

Where is the quote?

 

[SFC Ollie]

Back in early January, when Barack Obama was still President-elect, two of his chief economic advisers — leading proponents of a stimulus bill — predicted that the passage of a large economic-aid package would boost the economy and keep the unemployment rate below 8%.

Read more: Barack Obama's Stimulus Plan: Failing by Its Own Measure - TIME

Let me guess...The editors at Time are part of the VRWC.

Where is the quote?

So since he may not have said it but his economic team said it then that means he didn't believe it?

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Back in early January, when Barack Obama was still President-elect, two of his chief economic advisers — leading proponents of a stimulus bill — predicted that the passage of a large economic-aid package would boost the economy and keep the unemployment rate below 8%.

Read more: Barack Obama's Stimulus Plan: Failing by Its Own Measure - TIME

Let me guess...The editors at Time are part of the VRWC.

Where is the quote?

Aw...geez not another one.
It's like this kid...your right...Obama did not say it himself in front of a microphone. So where did it come from?
The President. But wait...what?
The President's council of economic advisers wrote this in their report that the President used to make his case to pass additional stimulus.
So - when someone says that the President promised that employment would not get above 8% - they may be technically "incorrect"...but totally accurate.
Get off the Kool Aid. We have enough Huff n Puffers around here.

 

[Rozman]

I'm sure the Libs are calling it the greatest achievement of man...
That's why they will be looking to triple the cost of the first one when the President gets back...

Can't wait to see another spending package from these guys....Wait,yes I can.

 

[Oldstyle]

It's amazing how poor people's memories are. A year and a half ago - this would be the end of Bush's term - stocks were falling a thousand points a day, Wall Street banks were going down like dominos, people were afraid to keep money in a bank unless it was FDIC insured, banks were afraid to lend money to each other, and corporations were like GM and AIG were going belly-up. People - particularly the same ones who now claim the stimulus "didn't work" - were warning about the end of the world, and the collapse of the entire financial system.

Now, a year and a half later, with the crisis itself averted, and the economy slowly on the mend, those same people say it didn't work because we're not back to full employment yet.

And, to add injury to insult, those same people, yet again, are the ones who've deprived us of the one tool necessary and sufficient to speed the recovery along - the ability to deficit spend.

They have no plan themselves - other than to raise taxes on the middle-class and to cut spending, which is like feeding poison to sick patient.

We could have full employment, right now, were we committed to a deficit sufficient to reach that goal. It's the Republicans who've stopped us from achieving it.

All I can say is wow...You really think that we could have full employment if we just borrowed enough money to pay for it? Did you just sleep through the whole credit downgrade thing? We could all live in mansions, drive exotic cars and date super models if we'd just commit to a deficit sufficient to reach THOSE goals as well. Are you really this stupid? You progressives live in an alternate universe where credit cards never have to be paid off and the bank never cuts off your line of credit. It would be laughable except some of you clowns are actually running our freakin' country right now. 2012 can't get here soon enough...

 

[Sundial]

Read more: Barack Obama's Stimulus Plan: Failing by Its Own Measure - TIME

Let me guess...The editors at Time are part of the VRWC.

Where is the quote?

Aw...geez not another one.
It's like this kid...your right...Obama did not say it himself in front of a microphone. So where did it come from?
The President. But wait...what?
The President's council of economic advisers wrote this in their report that the President used to make his case to pass additional stimulus.
So - when someone says that the President promised that employment would not get above 8% - they may be technically "incorrect"...but totally accurate.
Get off the Kool Aid. We have enough Huff n Puffers around here.

So Obama didn't promise anyone anything, but one of his advisers made an estimate in a report. And two things are the same to you. OK.

By the way, unless you just like being obnoxious, you can cut with the condescension from now on.

 

[Oddball]

Where is the quote?

Aw...geez not another one.
It's like this kid...your right...Obama did not say it himself in front of a microphone. So where did it come from?
The President. But wait...what?
The President's council of economic advisers wrote this in their report that the President used to make his case to pass additional stimulus.
So - when someone says that the President promised that employment would not get above 8% - they may be technically "incorrect"...but totally accurate.
Get off the Kool Aid. We have enough Huff n Puffers around here.

So Obama didn't promise anyone anything, but one of his advisers made an estimate in a report. And two things are the same to you. OK.

By the way, unless you just like being obnoxious, you can cut with the condescension from now on.

Nobody is saying that he promised anything...In fact, we're all admitting that there was no "promise" per se.

Nonetheless, that was the projection given by his economic witch doctors and the number he used to pimp the spending.

If you're going to be this willingly obtuse, then you're going to get a lot of mockery and derision, pal.

 

[Sundial]

Aw...geez not another one.
It's like this kid...your right...Obama did not say it himself in front of a microphone. So where did it come from?
The President. But wait...what?
The President's council of economic advisers wrote this in their report that the President used to make his case to pass additional stimulus.
So - when someone says that the President promised that employment would not get above 8% - they may be technically "incorrect"...but totally accurate.
Get off the Kool Aid. We have enough Huff n Puffers around here.

So Obama didn't promise anyone anything, but one of his advisers made an estimate in a report. And two things are the same to you. OK.

By the way, unless you just like being obnoxious, you can cut with the condescension from now on.

Nobody is saying that he promised anything...In fact, we're all admitting that there was no "promise" per se.

Nonetheless, that was the projection given by his economic witch doctors and the number he used to pimp the spending.

If you're going to be this willingly obtuse, then you're going to get a lot of mockery and derision, pal.

Not only are they saying it... over and over and over again... They've said it in this thread. But don't let that keep you from being smug. Pal.

 

[Sundial]

It's amazing how poor people's memories are. A year and a half ago - this would be the end of Bush's term - stocks were falling a thousand points a day, Wall Street banks were going down like dominos, people were afraid to keep money in a bank unless it was FDIC insured, banks were afraid to lend money to each other, and corporations were like GM and AIG were going belly-up. People - particularly the same ones who now claim the stimulus "didn't work" - were warning about the end of the world, and the collapse of the entire financial system.

Now, a year and a half later, with the crisis itself averted, and the economy slowly on the mend, those same people say it didn't work because we're not back to full employment yet.

And, to add injury to insult, those same people, yet again, are the ones who've deprived us of the one tool necessary and sufficient to speed the recovery along - the ability to deficit spend.

They have no plan themselves - other than to raise taxes on the middle-class and to cut spending, which is like feeding poison to sick patient.

We could have full employment, right now, were we committed to a deficit sufficient to reach that goal. It's the Republicans who've stopped us from achieving it.

All I can say is wow...You really think that we could have full employment if we just borrowed enough money to pay for it? Did you just sleep through the whole credit downgrade thing? We could all live in mansions, drive exotic cars and date super models if we'd just commit to a deficit sufficient to reach THOSE goals as well. Are you really this stupid? You progressives live in an alternate universe where credit cards never have to be paid off and the bank never cuts off your line of credit. It would be laughable except some of you clowns are actually running our freakin' country right now. 2012 can't get here soon enough...

I assume those are all rhetorical questions. If not, let me know.

This is not a rhetorical question, though: How much did US Treasuries decline, as a result of the downgrade?

 

[Wiseacre]

It's amazing how poor people's memories are. A year and a half ago - this would be the end of Bush's term - stocks were falling a thousand points a day, Wall Street banks were going down like dominos, people were afraid to keep money in a bank unless it was FDIC insured, banks were afraid to lend money to each other, and corporations were like GM and AIG were going belly-up. People - particularly the same ones who now claim the stimulus "didn't work" - were warning about the end of the world, and the collapse of the entire financial system.

Now, a year and a half later, with the crisis itself averted, and the economy slowly on the mend, those same people say it didn't work because we're not back to full employment yet.

And, to add injury to insult, those same people, yet again, are the ones who've deprived us of the one tool necessary and sufficient to speed the recovery along - the ability to deficit spend.

They have no plan themselves - other than to raise taxes on the middle-class and to cut spending, which is like feeding poison to sick patient.

We could have full employment, right now, were we committed to a deficit sufficient to reach that goal. It's the Republicans who've stopped us from achieving it.

All I can say is wow...You really think that we could have full employment if we just borrowed enough money to pay for it? Did you just sleep through the whole credit downgrade thing? We could all live in mansions, drive exotic cars and date super models if we'd just commit to a deficit sufficient to reach THOSE goals as well. Are you really this stupid? You progressives live in an alternate universe where credit cards never have to be paid off and the bank never cuts off your line of credit. It would be laughable except some of you clowns are actually running our freakin' country right now. 2012 can't get here soon enough...

I assume those are all rhetorical questions. If not, let me know.

This is not a rhetorical question, though: How much did US Treasuries decline, as a result of the downgrade?

If I'm not mistaken, interest rates on US Treasuries have dropped to around 2%, at one point below that. Which actually underlines the fact that the stimulus did not work, because it shows investors both foreign and domestic are flocking to the safe haven of low interest US bonds that will actually be worth less at maturity than they are now if you take inflation into account. They are doing this because they have no faith in the US economy, nobody believes we're going to get anywhere close to reasonable economic growth for quite awhile. Most analysts are downgrading their forecasts for GDP the rest of this year and next year, even the CBO's overly optimistic economic projections say we're looking at low economic growth.

So you can believe what you read or you can believe what you see. Tell the truth, do you really think the stimulus worked?

 

[Oddball]

So Obama didn't promise anyone anything, but one of his advisers made an estimate in a report. And two things are the same to you. OK.

By the way, unless you just like being obnoxious, you can cut with the condescension from now on.

Nobody is saying that he promised anything...In fact, we're all admitting that there was no "promise" per se.

Nonetheless, that was the projection given by his economic witch doctors and the number he used to pimp the spending.

If you're going to be this willingly obtuse, then you're going to get a lot of mockery and derision, pal.

Not only are they saying it... over and over and over again... They've said it in this thread. But don't let that keep you from being smug. Pal.

Piss off and grow a skin, noob.

I can scroll back through this thread and see people admitting that there was no promise that the 8% number wouldn't be surpassed.

Fact remains that the 8% figure was used, over and over again, as a talking point to sell the succubus spending,"promise" or not.

Therefore, by the yardstick of Barry Obungler's own economic tarot card dealers, the nearly $1 trillion thrown at the recession is a towering failure.

 

[Flopper]

This is my last post in this thread, it's all getting very repetitive. For the last time, when the bill was passed, we were losing 600,000 jobs a month. Last month we had a net job gain of 114,000.

In January 2009, economists were predicting monthly job losses to reach nearly million a month and unemployment to reach 10 to 11 percent. Many states were on the verge of massive cuts in health, safety, and education. Had the president done nothing and just waited for the economy to bottom out as many of you have suggested, you would have been demanding action.

As a number of economist have said, the stimulus was not large enough to fuel a robust recovery but large enough to keep the country from going into the 2nd great depression.