Did the stimulus work? A review of the nine best studies on the subject

[Oldstyle]

By its own stated objectives (unemployment peaking at 8%), the stimulus was an epic fail.

It's also quite representative of why most government programs fail - they don't meet a measurable objective. In the private sector, such programs would be cancelled due to being Bad Investments.

Prove that first sentence.

And while you are failing to do that, maybe you can compile the total amount of state government workers who have been laid off by wingnut governors, and see if that accounts for the other 1-2% of unemployment.

From Wikipedia:

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
Acronym ARRA
Colloquial name(s) The Recovery Act, Stimulus
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, abbreviated ARRA (Pub.L. 111-5) and commonly referred to as the Stimulus or The Recovery Act, is an economic stimulus package enacted by the 111th United States Congress in February 2009 and signed into law on February 17, 2009 by President Barack Obama.

To respond to the late-2000s recession, the primary objective for ARRA was to save and create jobs almost immediately. Secondary objectives were to provide temporary relief programs for those most impacted by the recession and invest in infrastructure, education, health, and ‘green’ energy. The approximate cost of the economic stimulus package was estimated to be $787 Billion at the time of passage. The Act included direct spending in infrastructure, education, health, and energy, federal tax incentives, and expansion of unemployment benefits and other social welfare provisions. The Act also included many items not directly related to economic recovery such as long-term spending projects (e.g. a study of the effectiveness of medical treatments) and other items specifically included by Congress (e.g. a limitation on executive compensation in federally aided banks added by Senator Dodd and Rep. Frank).


Me:
President Obama, speaker Pelosi, Leader Harry Reid, and every other democrat within shouting distance of a microphone told us the stimulus bill would lower unemployment to below 8%. That was the supposed to be the primary objective as stated above. One can argue that many jobs were saved or created, but as you no doubt know the fact is that we have some 2 million fewer people employed now than we did then. Most people would label that as a failure.

Gotta ask, we were supposed to spend money on infrastructure out of this bill, where'd that money go? Why do we need more money on infrastructure?

I think that number is actually 3 million more unemployed.

As for the infrastructure jobs? The reason Democrats want "more" money for infrastructure is that they panicked last time when the process started taking too long on the supposed "shovel ready" jobs and ordered stimulus money spent on whatever could be done quickly. So instead of getting bridges and schools repaired...we got lots of road paving done...even where road paving wasn't really needed. So my question is...if those infrastructure jobs weren't shovel ready last time? What makes anyone think they'll be anymore shovel ready THIS TIME? They say one definition of insanity is someone who keeps repeating the same thing over and over while expecting a different result.

In regards to the claims that the stimulus worked? If you'll recall, Obama called on Germany to do a huge stimulus like the one he was asking for. Chancellor Merkel declined, saying she didn't think it was fiscally prudent. So we went out and spent a trillion dollars and Germany didn't. Fast forward two years later and who's economy is in better shape, the US or Germany?

 

[Oddball]

You don't understand the concept of falsifiability, do you?

I understand that you believe that the Constitution is a license to steal.

I understand that you're quite well versed in hyperbole.

 

[Truthmatters]

they will just lie and say it didnt work.

Just like they still lie about WNDs in Iraq.

Just like they still lie about Bush taking us to war on lies.

Just like they still lie about outing a CIA agent.

Just like they lie about ACORN

Just like they still lie about the republican party cheating in elections for decades



Lies are just fine with the right

 

[Oddball]

I understand the concept of wingnuts.

I'll score that a big "NO, I DON'T".

I'm sure you also don't understand that a famously politically biased op-ed writer just might cherry pick which studies he determined to be the "nine best".

Ah, messenger attacking.

The last desperate grasp of the defeated.

I can also separate fact from opinion, which is what Klein's writing is.


Apparently, this observation has escaped you, in favor of party man pop-pom waving.

 

[Wiseacre]

You don't understand the concept of falsifiability, do you?

I understand that you believe that the Constitution is a license to steal.

Oddball is a liberal? Damn, I pos repped him a short while ago.

 

[Wiseacre]

Gotta ask, we were supposed to spend money on infrastructure out of this bill, where'd that money go? Why do we need more money on infrastructure?

If you are TRULY interested, then watch this. Or you can be an 'Oddball' and just attack the messenger, like a WingBot.



Rachel Maddow Show

I listened to it for about 4-5 minutes and had to quit, it's just too biased. Are Hannity and Limbaugh just as biased the other way? Sure, I don't listen to them either.

Let's be clear here, repubs are hypocritical sometimes too. One can argue about who is worse, and never settle the question. Same deal for the stimulus, you can argue about where we would have been without it, I can argue about where we are now after the fact. But here's the question, what if we had done better? What if we had taken our time, made sure the money went to the most effective uses, instead of political paybacks? What if it had been managed better, with reports back to us about where the money went? I believe the stimulus was poorly designed, poorly managed, poorly coordinated, and poorly reported back to us. After all, it was a lot of money and we were promised more transparency, no?

 

[Flopper]

Prove that first sentence.

And while you are failing to do that, maybe you can compile the total amount of state government workers who have been laid off by wingnut governors, and see if that accounts for the other 1-2% of unemployment.

From Wikipedia:

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
Acronym ARRA
Colloquial name(s) The Recovery Act, Stimulus
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, abbreviated ARRA (Pub.L. 111-5) and commonly referred to as the Stimulus or The Recovery Act, is an economic stimulus package enacted by the 111th United States Congress in February 2009 and signed into law on February 17, 2009 by President Barack Obama.

To respond to the late-2000s recession, the primary objective for ARRA was to save and create jobs almost immediately. Secondary objectives were to provide temporary relief programs for those most impacted by the recession and invest in infrastructure, education, health, and ‘green’ energy. The approximate cost of the economic stimulus package was estimated to be $787 Billion at the time of passage. The Act included direct spending in infrastructure, education, health, and energy, federal tax incentives, and expansion of unemployment benefits and other social welfare provisions. The Act also included many items not directly related to economic recovery such as long-term spending projects (e.g. a study of the effectiveness of medical treatments) and other items specifically included by Congress (e.g. a limitation on executive compensation in federally aided banks added by Senator Dodd and Rep. Frank).


Me:
President Obama, speaker Pelosi, Leader Harry Reid, and every other democrat within shouting distance of a microphone told us the stimulus bill would lower unemployment to below 8%. That was the supposed to be the primary objective as stated above. One can argue that many jobs were saved or created, but as you no doubt know the fact is that we have some 2 million fewer people employed now than we did then. Most people would label that as a failure.

Gotta ask, we were supposed to spend money on infrastructure out of this bill, where'd that money go? Why do we need more money on infrastructure?

Is this your admission that Obama never claimed that it would decrease unemployment to under 8%?

I can not find anywhere where Obama ever said the stimulus bill would bring unemployment below 8%. I don't believe Obama ever said this.

I believe he's credited with this because of a Jan. 9, 2009, report called "The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan" from Christina Romer, chairwoman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, and Jared Bernstein, the vice president's top economic adviser. The report includes a graphic predicting unemployment rates with and without the stimulus. Without the stimulus (the baseline), unemployment was projected to hit about 8.5 percent in 2009 and then continue rising to a peak of about 9 percent in 2010. With the stimulus, they predicted the unemployment rate would peak at just under 8 percent in 2009. As I recall Biden made some comment about the 8% but not Obama.

If you have an actually quote from Obama, not a right wing talk show blurb, I would like to see it.

 

[Oldstyle]

they will just lie and say it didnt work.

Just like they still lie about WNDs in Iraq.

Just like they still lie about Bush taking us to war on lies.

Just like they still lie about outing a CIA agent.

Just like they lie about ACORN

Just like they still lie about the republican party cheating in elections for decades



Lies are just fine with the right

Ah, all those things you just listed are the lies people like you have repeated so many times that you now accept them as "fact" when they are nothing more than opinion.

What is a fact, is that WMD's did exist in Iraq. What is also a fact is that we could not find them when we invaded. Liberals like yourself took 1 plus 1 and came up with 5 on that issue.

Bush took us to war on faulty intel. The same faulty intel that had our allies going to war and the same intel that even had liberals like Hilary Clinton voting for that war.

Valerie Plame was never "outed". Valerie Plame and her husband decided to play political hardball by writing an op-ed in the New York Times in which Joe Wilson lied about his intelligence gathering in Africa.

ACORN was a sleazy organization that broke laws, got caught, and paid the price.

People on the Left have accused Republicans of "cheating" in elections for years now which is rather ironic since the single biggest example of election fraud in our country's history was pulled off by the Democrats back in 1960 when Chicago Mayor Richard Daley "delivered" for JFK.

 

[Flopper]

By its own stated objectives (unemployment peaking at 8%), the stimulus was an epic fail.

It's also quite representative of why most government programs fail - they don't meet a measurable objective. In the private sector, such programs would be cancelled due to being Bad Investments.

Where did you get 8% as an unemployment goal? I think it was an economic projection.

 

[SFC Ollie]

New Unemployment claims this week at 417,000.............




FAIL

 

[Avorysuds]

Yes, the stimulus is working, that's why we have not stopped the decent and were downgraded... because things are going so well...

I’m so happy reality is people are rejecting your guys bullshit rather than believing it. It’s like all you Obama-bots are just jerking each other off, it’s kinda funny to watch, you don’t actually change anyone’s mind to agree with you, if anything people are embarrassed to even slightly agree with you.

Obama’s approval rating 38%... I don’t see why with only expanding upon Bush era policies he should be any better than Bush. 28% here we come!

 

[Truthmatters]

The stimulus needed to be bigger

 

[Truthmatters]

they will just lie and say it didnt work.

Just like they still lie about WNDs in Iraq.

Just like they still lie about Bush taking us to war on lies.

Just like they still lie about outing a CIA agent.

Just like they lie about ACORN

Just like they still lie about the republican party cheating in elections for decades



Lies are just fine with the right

Ah, all those things you just listed are the lies people like you have repeated so many times that you now accept them as "fact" when they are nothing more than opinion.

What is a fact, is that WMD's did exist in Iraq. What is also a fact is that we could not find them when we invaded. Liberals like yourself took 1 plus 1 and came up with 5 on that issue.

Bush took us to war on faulty intel. The same faulty intel that had our allies going to war and the same intel that even had liberals like Hilary Clinton voting for that war.

Valerie Plame was never "outed". Valerie Plame and her husband decided to play political hardball by writing an op-ed in the New York Times in which Joe Wilson lied about his intelligence gathering in Africa.

ACORN was a sleazy organization that broke laws, got caught, and paid the price.

People on the Left have accused Republicans of "cheating" in elections for years now which is rather ironic since the single biggest example of election fraud in our country's history was pulled off by the Democrats back in 1960 when Chicago Mayor Richard Daley "delivered" for JFK.

And there you have an example of the insanity.

they live on a steady diet of Fox lies

 

[SFC Ollie]

The stimulus needed to be bigger

Do you ever pay your bills? Ever heard of anyone getting more credit after maxing out all their credit cards and being downgraded? We are spending ourselves into the poorhouse already and you want to spend more? This is not the stock market or any type of business where you have to spend money to make money. Face it Uncle Sam's pocket has a hole in it and there is nothing left to spend..........

 

[Truthmatters]

Do you ever engauge your brain?

 

[SFC Ollie]

Do you ever engauge your brain?

Translation: "I don't know what you're talking about."

 

[Oldstyle]

they will just lie and say it didnt work.

Just like they still lie about WNDs in Iraq.

Just like they still lie about Bush taking us to war on lies.

Just like they still lie about outing a CIA agent.

Just like they lie about ACORN

Just like they still lie about the republican party cheating in elections for decades



Lies are just fine with the right

Ah, all those things you just listed are the lies people like you have repeated so many times that you now accept them as "fact" when they are nothing more than opinion.

What is a fact, is that WMD's did exist in Iraq. What is also a fact is that we could not find them when we invaded. Liberals like yourself took 1 plus 1 and came up with 5 on that issue.

Bush took us to war on faulty intel. The same faulty intel that had our allies going to war and the same intel that even had liberals like Hilary Clinton voting for that war.

Valerie Plame was never "outed". Valerie Plame and her husband decided to play political hardball by writing an op-ed in the New York Times in which Joe Wilson lied about his intelligence gathering in Africa.

ACORN was a sleazy organization that broke laws, got caught, and paid the price.

People on the Left have accused Republicans of "cheating" in elections for years now which is rather ironic since the single biggest example of election fraud in our country's history was pulled off by the Democrats back in 1960 when Chicago Mayor Richard Daley "delivered" for JFK.

And there you have an example of the insanity.

they live on a steady diet of Fox lies

If you'd like to dispute any of the points I made feel free. I don't think you've got the smarts to actually argue your view, TM. I think you'll fall back on "non-arguments" like what you've provided above.

 

[California Girl]

So, being a tad obsessive about fact over opinion, I read the article - mainly to answer my first question, which was:

How did the writer determine "the best". What methodology did he apply in order to establish the baseline of "the best". This is what I noticed:

Of the nine studies I’ve found....

So are they or are they not "the best" or are they just "the found"?

Find some others.

I've read others.

Fact is, he made the claim that it was nine of the best. Define the methodology of 'best'. You can't, because he didn't. It is not factually accurate. Therefore, it is bullshit.

It's not my problem if I spotted the gaping flaw in this blog and you didn't. I guess I'm just smarter than you.

 

[Avorysuds]

The stimulus needed to be bigger

Austrian economics told you before the stimulus passed it would fail and the people that passed it or supported it would in fact claim it needed to be bigger… That prediction has held true. Grats TM, you’re predictable.

Oh.. Tm, why do you hate poor people and waht to see their children starve to death?

 

[Oddball]

By its own stated objectives (unemployment peaking at 8%), the stimulus was an epic fail.

It's also quite representative of why most government programs fail - they don't meet a measurable objective. In the private sector, such programs would be cancelled due to being Bad Investments.

Where did you get 8% as an unemployment goal? I think it was an economic projection.

So, economic projections that didn't come to pass is supposed to be evidence of success?