Deep ocean warming responsible for surface warming respite

[Crick]

As noted here repeatedly...

From Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration

ABSTRACT
A vacillating global heat sink at intermediate ocean depths is associated with different climate regimes of surface warming under anthropogenic forcing: The latter part of the 20th century saw rapid global warming as more heat stayed near the surface. In the 21st century, surface warming slowed as more heat moved into deeper oceans. In situ and reanalyzed data are used to trace the pathways of ocean heat uptake. In addition to the shallow La Niña–like patterns in the Pacific that were the previous focus, we found that the slowdown is mainly caused by heat transported to deeper layers in the Atlantic and the Southern oceans, initiated by a recurrent salinity anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic. Cooling periods associated with the latter deeper heat-sequestration mechanism historically lasted 20 to 35 years.

 

[IanC]

is this a new paper? I wonder how long it will last in its pristine form. at least the warmers have the press releases to perpetually link to even though it will be torn to shreds in hours or days

 

[Crick]

22 August 2014. Just out of curiosity, why do you think it will be torn apart?

 

[IanC]

ad hoc excuse made from reanalyzed data. Need I say more? All these excuses would be more acceptable if your side hadn't summarily dismissed them only a few years ago.

 

[westwall]

Yup. They can "reanalyze" their data all they want. The reality is the claim that heat is "hiding" in the deep ocean is absurd on its face. They did at least claim that more than half of the warming was actually natural....
They're starting to catch on that their meme is no longer working.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

We're back to "the ocean ate the global warming" excuse

 

[CrusaderFrank]

ABSURD
A vacillating global heat sink at intermediate ocean depths is associated with different climate regimes of surface...

There, fixed

 

[flacaltenn]

Yup. They can "reanalyze" their data all they want. The reality is the claim that heat is "hiding" in the deep ocean is absurd on its face. They did at least claim that more than half of the warming was actually natural....
They're starting to catch on that their meme is no longer working.

By all means -- keep busy REANALYZING the data so that they can boost the same ole discredited premise..

It's not the DATA that needs to be reanalyzed, it's their PREMISE that needs to be reanalyzed. Every data analysis has shown that the RATE of warming into this nebulous vacillating yonder hasn't changed since the buoys were first dropped in the 1960s. Which leaves them with NO EXPLANATION for the pause. IN FACT, the charts show a recognizable SLOWING of the rate to lower layers right about the time the PAUSE happened. No mechanism for why a constant storage rate suddenly is skimming more calories off the surface of the ocean's diet..

All horse -- no cowboy.. Or something like that..
Jeepers -- it's quiet out there in ClimateChangeville..

 

[flacaltenn]

Except for the Church faithful that doesn't know the party is over... That is..
Like the socially inept party guest that doesn't understand why you are yawning and
in your pajamas....

 

[JWBooth]

Since when did hot water sink?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

You don't really believe this, do you? It's a Gullibility test.

 

[Crick]

Since when did hot water sink?

When it's pushed against a coastline by sustained winds. Do you have some other explanation for this

 

[IanC]

Hahahahaha. I love the way Trenberth put coloured bars at the volcanoes. It makes the graph look so correlated.

Too bad the UN-reanalysed data doesn't show the same correlation. Its funny how temperature records always seem to comply to the AGW doctrine after they have been 'corrected'.

I don't have the time or energy to dredge up the original data graphs again. And again.

I hope the Australians get to the bottom of their dataset corruption and set the dominoes falling. New Zealand had the chance to be first but their courts decided that science was beyond their scope. Fortunately the Aussie political situation seems more amenable to actually investigate.

 

[flacaltenn]

Hahahahaha. I love the way Trenberth put coloured bars at the volcanoes. It makes the graph look so correlated.

Too bad the UN-reanalysed data doesn't show the same correlation. Its funny how temperature records always seem to comply to the AGW doctrine after they have been 'corrected'.

I don't have the time or energy to dredge up the original data graphs again. And again.

I hope the Australians get to the bottom of their dataset corruption and set the dominoes falling. New Zealand had the chance to be first but their courts decided that science was beyond their scope. Fortunately the Aussie political situation seems more amenable to actually investigate.

I believe the BTK thriller is the only one that shows signatures of volcanoes at depth. While I was studying BTK, I ran across a couple studies debunking the expexpectation of seeeing volcanic sigs in the data. Almost certainly at this point an artifact of the over zealous modeling. The volcanic sigs were left in to impress the fans.

The NOAA data PREDATES BTK, and looks much less processed and believable.

 

[HereWeGoAgain]

Since when did hot water sink?

When it's pushed against a coastline by sustained winds. Do you have some other explanation for this

Hot water always rises to the surface. And if you've ever gone swimming after a hurricane has passed you find the water is cold as hell from the wind generated waves bringing cold water to the surface. But it takes a hell of a lot of wind for that to happen.

 

[Crick]

Since when did hot water sink?

When it's pushed against a coastline by sustained winds. Do you have some other explanation for this

Hot water always rises to the surface. And if you've ever gone swimming after a hurricane has passed you find the water is cold as hell from the wind generated waves bringing cold water to the surface. But it takes a hell of a lot of wind for that to happen.

I'm glad to see you've noted how moving warm water to the depths causes cold water to replace it at the surface. This process is responsible for a very large chunk of the reduction in surface warming witnessed since the turn of the millennium.

As to the validity of BTK 2013 - a large number of studies since BTK have come to virtually identical conclusions. They are accessible below.
*********************************************************
*********************************************************


Papers that have cited BTK 2013

A statistical analysis of sea temperature data

• Torbjørn Lorentzen

Abstract
The paper analyzes sea temperature series measured at two geographical locations along the coast of Norway. We address the question whether the series are stable over the sample period 1936–2012 and whether we can measure any signal of climate change in the regional data. We use nonstandard supF, OLS-based CUSUM, RE, and Chow tests in combination with the Bai-Perron’s structural break test to identify potential changes in the temperature. The augmented Dickey-Fuller, the KPSS, and the nonparametric Phillips-Perron tests are in addition applied in the evaluation of the stochastic properties of the series. The analysis indicates that both series undergo similar structural instabilities in the form of small shifts in the temperature level. The temperature at Lista (58° 06′ N, 06° 38′ E) shifts downward about 1962 while the Skrova series (68° 12′ N, 14° 10′ E) shifts to a lower level about 1977. Both series shift upward about 1987, and after a period of increasing temperature, both series start leveling off about the turn of the millennium. The series have no significant stochastic or deterministic trend. The analysis indicates that the mean temperature has moved upward in decadal, small steps since the 1980s. The result is in accordance with recent analyses of sea temperatures in the North Atlantic. The findings are also related to the so-called hiatus phenomenon where natural variation in climate can mask global warming processes. The paper contributes to the discussion of applying objective methods in measuring climate change.


Atmospheric science: Increasing wind sinks heat

• 
  
  
  • Yu Kosaka

Nature Climate Change

172–173

(2014)

26 February 2014
Abstract
Surface global warming has stalled since around 2000 despite increasing atmospheric CO2. A study finds that recent strengthening of Pacific trade winds has enhanced heat transport from the surface to ocean depths, explaining most of the slowed surface warming.


Attributing the increase in Northern Hemisphere hot summers since the late 20th century

1. 
   
   
   • Youichi Kamae1,*,
   • Hideo Shiogama1,
   • Masahiro Watanabe2 and
   • Masahide Kimoto2

Article first published online: 25 JUL 2014

DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061062

©2014.

Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 41, Issue 14, pages 5192–5199, 28 July 2014

Abstract
Anomalously high summertime temperatures have occurred with increasing frequency since the late 20th century. It is not clear why hot summers are becoming more frequent despite the recent slowdown in the rise in global surface air temperature. To examine factors affecting the historical variation in the frequency of hot summers over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), we conducted three sets of ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model. The model accurately reproduced interannual variation and long-term increase in the occurrence of hot summers. Decadal variabilities in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans accounted for 43 ± 27% of the recent increase over the NH middle latitudes. In addition, direct influence of anthropogenic forcing also contributes to increasing the frequency since the late 20th century. The results suggest that the heat extremes can become more frequent in the coming decade even with the persistent slowdown in the global-mean surface warming.

Ocean Dynamics
June 2014, Volume 64, Issue 6, pp 823-832
Date: 04 May 2014
Basin patterns of upper ocean warming for 1993–2009

• You-Soon Chang

Abstract
A previous study (Lyman et al., Nature 465:334–337, 2010) showed a robust warming signal of the global upper ocean (0–700 m). They examined several sources of uncertainty that contribute to differences among heat content estimations. However, their focus was limited to globally averaged estimation. This study presents the spatial pattern of the global heat content change based on observed gridded datasets (Levitus et al., Geophys Res Lett 36:L07608, 2009). The western Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans showed significant warming trends, whereas eastern Pacific and some areas of the Gulf Stream experienced negative trends during 1993–2009. Steady warming trend was obtained from the first EOF mode when El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related signals were removed. This result implies that the rapid increase in heat content of the upper ocean around 2000–2005 is not related to a sampling transition from XBT to Argo observations but is associated with a natural variability dominated by strong ENSO-related signals.

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[flacaltenn]

Since when did hot water sink?

When it's pushed against a coastline by sustained winds. Do you have some other explanation for this

Hot water always rises to the surface. And if you've ever gone swimming after a hurricane has passed you find the water is cold as hell from the wind generated waves bringing cold water to the surface. But it takes a hell of a lot of wind for that to happen.

They are not showing temperature Iin these studies. They avoid it because the magnitudes would be ridiculed. But in any heatsink, there will be thermal flow from hot to cold. So its possible to see increases in heat flux at depths. You can easily get hot and cold layers at depths due to currents. Submariners rely on this for sonar stealth. Folks also need to remember that they are looking at yet another of these braindead Global Averages for propaganda value. It tells you nothing about the mechanics of the warming which could be due primarily to the temp of ANY of the hot or cold conveyors and or limited to localized areas.

 

[Crick]

Since when did hot water sink?

When it's pushed against a coastline by sustained winds. Do you have some other explanation for this

Hot water always rises to the surface. And if you've ever gone swimming after a hurricane has passed you find the water is cold as hell from the wind generated waves bringing cold water to the surface. But it takes a hell of a lot of wind for that to happen.

They are not showing temperature Iin these studies.

They are showing heat content

They avoid it because the magnitudes would be ridiculed.

Always a mistake to claim you know people's motives. Models can easily work directly with heat content as it is a direct property of the full ocean mass. It would not require the amount of calculation - and present the opportunity for error - that working with local temperatures at varying depths would require.

But in any heatsink, there will be thermal flow from hot to cold.

A heatsink is an abstract construct used in thermodynamics capable of absorbing infinite amounts of heat without changing temperature. So... your comment just does not make much sense.

So its possible to see increases in heat flux at depths.

I do not see a connection between your comments about heat sinks and thermal fluxes. You've said nothing about any proposed mechanism that could have caused this increase flux from shallow to deep. You seem to want to say its some sort of natural, arbitrary process that takes place without the provision of heat from an external soure (ex: the sun, the atmosphere). But you've yet to give us the slightest hint how it has taken place.

You can easily get hot and cold layers at depths due to currents.

Obviously thermoclines exist, but You have yet to describe any mechanism involved or given the slightest suggestion as to why heat at depth has increased since 2000.

Submariners rely on this for sonar stealth.

Really? Wow. Are you suggesting that there have been no changes since the Hunley?

Folks also need to remember that they are looking at yet another of these braindead Global Averages for propaganda value. It tells you nothing about the mechanics of the warming which could be due primarily to the temp of ANY of the hot or cold conveyors and or limited to localized areas.

Total heat content of the world ocean is NOT an average. Try to keep up with the basic physics.

 

[flacaltenn]

All gibberish.. The ORIGINAL DATA was in temperatures.
A heatsink IS NOT "an abstraction" -- yadda yadda.. don't bug me.

BUT THIS ------->>>>>>>> Just might make my sigline for it's uniquely Crickham stupidity..

Total heat content of the world ocean is NOT an average. Try to keep up with the basic physics.

Yet that GLOBAL NUMBER tells us NOTHING about how the heat is distributed or related to the mechanics of ocean thermal transfer does it? Doesn't even forecast the heat content increase for ANY square meter of ocean does it?

It's EXACTLY the type of metric you would use if you had a preconceived thesis for the cause of the phenomenon and had NO INTEREST whatsoever in exploring what the data set as a whole tells you about the physics..


We need better warmers..

 

[Crick]

Then perhaps I will quote your "Yet that global number...", telling us that you now realize it is NOT an average as you just claimed.