Debunking the politically motivated Chrysler dealer closings

[DavidS]

Thank you, once again, Nate Silver for finding a way to the REST of the story.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: News Flash: Car Dealers are Republicans (It's Called a Control Group, People)

by Nate Silver @ 6:50 PM

A meme that is currently picking up traction in the conservative blogosphere is that the list of dealerships to be shuttered as a result of Chrysler's bankruptcy contains a disproportionate number donors to Republican candidates. There have been furious efforts to prove this contention by looking up campaign contributor lists at the Huffington Post, Open Secrets, and other places.

There is just one problem with this theory. Nobody has bothered to look up data for the control group: the list of dealerships which aren't being closed. It turns out that all car dealers are, in fact, overwhelmingly more likely to donate to Republicans than to Democrats -- not just those who are having their doors closed.

Here, for instance, is what Huffington Post's Fundrace site turns up for those who list their occupation as "auto dealer":



Republican donations outstrip Democratic ones by about 8.6:1. Next, let's try "car dealer":



For some reason, those persons who describe themselves as "car dealers" are just slightly more likely to donate to Democrats than those who call themselves "auto dealers". Nevertheless, the list of contributions tilts Republican by better than a 3:1 margin.

Next up, "automobile dealer":



Roughly a 10:1 advantage for Republicans. Finally, we'll look at the slightly more obscure formation of "automotive dealer":



Big Republican edge here too.

Combining the data:



Overall, 88 percent of the contributions from car dealers went to Republican candidates and just 12 percent to Democratic candidates. By comparison, the list of dealers on Doug Ross's list (which I haven't vetted, but I assume is fine) gave 92 percent of their money to Republicans -- not really a significant difference.

There's no conspiracy here, folks -- just some bad math.

It shouldn't be any surprise, by the way, that car dealers tend to vote -- and donate -- Republican. They are usually male, they are usually older (you don't own an auto dealership in your 20s), and they have obvious reasons to be pro-business, pro-tax cut, anti-green energy and anti-labor. Car dealerships need quite a bit of space and will tend to be located in suburban or rural areas. I can't think of too many other occupations that are more natural fits for the Republican Party. Unfortunately, while we are still a nation of drivers, we are not a nation of dealers.

 

[DiveCon]

Question, david, have any of the dem dealers had their contracts broken?

 

[DavidS]

Question, david, have any of the dem dealers had their contracts broken?

Yes. If you read the list, you'll see that while the dealership list was heavily Republican, it wasn't all Republican. Again, a vast majority of auto dealerships donate to the Republican Party.

If you say "Close 100 Chrysler dealerships" and 88% of them donate to the Republican party, then of course you're going to have 88% of the dealerships that donate to the Republican party closed.

 

[DiveCon]

Question, david, have any of the dem dealers had their contracts broken?

Yes. If you read the list, you'll see that while the dealership list was heavily Republican, it wasn't all Republican. Again, a vast majority of auto dealerships donate to the Republican Party.

If you say "Close 100 Chrysler dealerships" and 88% of them donate to the Republican party, then of course you're going to have 88% of the dealerships that donate to the Republican party closed.

sorry, but your "list" doesnt show political leanings

 

[Chris]

Obama saved those Republicans from losing their dealerships when all the Republicans in Congress voted not to help them.

How ironic is it that they are now trying to make this an issue?

 

[DavidS]

Question, david, have any of the dem dealers had their contracts broken?

Yes. If you read the list, you'll see that while the dealership list was heavily Republican, it wasn't all Republican. Again, a vast majority of auto dealerships donate to the Republican Party.

If you say "Close 100 Chrysler dealerships" and 88% of them donate to the Republican party, then of course you're going to have 88% of the dealerships that donate to the Republican party closed.

sorry, but your "list" doesnt show political leanings

Huh? Are you even reading this? Do you see the red elephants? Those are Republicans. The blue donkeys are Democrats. Sorry that no one has a cartoon of a dude snorkeling as the symbol of their political party - but hey, you should write to Ralph Nader - I hear he's going to run again in 2012 - he could use a new branding tool!

 

[DavidS]

Obama saved those Republicans from losing their dealerships when all the Republicans in Congress voted not to help them.

How ironic is it that they are now trying to make this an issue?

What?

 

[garyd]

You haven't shown that 88% of those closed were Republican or that 12% of those closed were Democrst supporters. Try isolating it to battle ground states and see what you get. It could well be that in states that are closely contested between Dems and Reps that Dem closings are non existant. and Reps exaggerated not by the way that the amount of money in any case is exactly enormous by todays standards. What I would expect to see is evidence that the company is closing dealerships that haven't been real profitable regardless of their political leanings.

That's where I think people are really missing the boat on this one.

 

[Article 15]

You haven't shown that 88% of those closed were Republican or that 12% of those closed were Democrst supporters. Try isolating it to battle ground states and see what you get. It could well be that in states that are closely contested between Dems and Reps that Dem closings are non existant. and Reps exaggerated not by the way that the amount of money in any case is exactly enormous by todays standards. What I would expect to see is evidence that the company is closing dealerships that haven't been real profitable regardless of their political leanings.
That's where I think people are really missing the boat on this one.

That's what I thinking too.

This seems like it's just a really whacked out, conjured up way to try to attack the administration.

 

[DavidS]

You haven't shown that 88% of those closed were Republican or that 12% of those closed were Democrst supporters. Try isolating it to battle ground states and see what you get. It could well be that in states that are closely contested between Dems and Reps that Dem closings are non existant. and Reps exaggerated not by the way that the amount of money in any case is exactly enormous by todays standards. What I would expect to see is evidence that the company is closing dealerships that haven't been real profitable regardless of their political leanings.

That's where I think people are really missing the boat on this one.

Go here:

Campaign Donors : Fundrace 2008 - Huffington Post

Then go here to cross reference:

List of Chrysler Dealers to be Closed

According to Doug Ross, 92% of the dealerships that were closed were Republican.

RED ALERT: Did anti-Obama campaign contributions dictate which Chrysler dealers were shuttered?

Well, if you look at every single dealership that has donated to campaigns during 2008, you'll see a vast majority of them are Republican. 88% according to Nate Silver. That means every 12 out of 100 dealerships that donated to campaigns last year was Democrat and every 8 out of 100 dealerships that were closed were Democrats. I highly doubt whoever was in charge of gathering the list of dealerships that were closed had anything to do with politics and everything to do with how profitable or non-profitable they were.

This is research, folks. It's time consuming, but it's educational and it's lets you do the thinking instead of letting someone else do the thinking for you.

 

[Chris]

Obama saved those Republicans from losing their dealerships when all the Republicans in Congress voted not to help them.

How ironic is it that they are now trying to make this an issue?

What?

Obama voted to give Chrysler money in the bailout.

All the Republicans in Congress voted against it.

85% of the Chrysler dealers are Republicans.

How ironic is that?

 

[garyd]

Thanks david. You just show silver is an idiot. See that 88% of dealerships are republican owned but 94% of closing are Republican. And wonder about the differences within battle ground states. Right now the closing aren't proportionate by a 6% margin.

 

[Chris]

Thanks david. You just show silver is an idiot. See that 88% of dealerships are republican owned but 94% of closing are Republican. And wonder about the differences within battle ground states. Right now the closing aren't proportionate by a 6% margin.

Silver is not an idiot....

Conservative Bloggers Charge Obama's Auto Task Force With Playing Politics on Chrysler Dealer Closings - Political News - FOXNews.com

A preliminary study by FOXNews.com found that the data do not support the charges. Among the dealerships set to close, 12 percent of a random 50 selected for review donated to Republicans and 8 percent to Democrats. Of the dealerships remaining open, 14 percent of a random 50 selected donated to Republicans and 10 percent to Democrats. In both samples, the average size of donations was similar for both parties.

According to the sample, one major factor in determining whether a dealership was closed or not was the size of the dealership, measured by the number of product lines carried (the four lines are Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge and Dodge Truck). The average store that will be closed in the FOXNews.com sample carries 2.5 of those product lines whereas the average store that will stay open carries 3.64.

A Chrysler representative said part of the decision on consolidating dealerships was to reduce overlap and have the remaining dealers sell all three company brands.

"It makes sense to have all three brands under one roof," Chrysler spokeswoman Kathy Graham told FOXNews.com.

Conservative blogger Michelle Malkin suggested that more Republican-leaning businessmen gravitate toward the car dealership business. She added that many dealerships deserved to be closed down.

 

[DavidS]

Thanks david. You just show silver is an idiot. See that 88% of dealerships are republican owned but 94% of closing are Republican. And wonder about the differences within battle ground states. Right now the closing aren't proportionate by a 6% margin.

What are you talking about? Are you able to use your brain or not - because I'm worried about you here.

Let me repeat: None of the dealerships that were closed had anything at all to do with their donations to x party. The reason why a vast majority of car dealerships that were closed donated to the Republican Party is because a vast majority of car dealerships DONATED TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. Again, look at the demographics. Suburbian older white men who are well to do. Perfect demographic for the Republican party. You can't expect 88% of the dealerships that were closed to be Republican donators just because 88% of the dealerships that were closed were Republican donators.

789 dealerships were closed out of about 3100. If out of 3100 dealers that are Chrysler dealers, 2,728 of them donate to the Republican Party, and 726 of them were closed it's only by coincidence due to the vast majority of them being Republican donators.

 

[Article 15]

Thanks david. You just show silver is an idiot. See that 88% of dealerships are republican owned but 94% of closing are Republican. And wonder about the differences within battle ground states. Right now the closing aren't proportionate by a 6% margin.

What are you talking about? Are you able to use your brain or not - because I'm worried about you here.

Let me repeat: None of the dealerships that were closed had anything at all to do with their donations to x party. The reason why a vast majority of car dealerships that were closed donated to the Republican Party is because a vast majority of car dealerships DONATED TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. Again, look at the demographics. Suburbian older white men who are well to do. Perfect demographic for the Republican party. You can't expect 88% of the dealerships that were closed to be Republican donators just because 88% of the dealerships that were closed were Republican donators.

789 dealerships were closed out of about 3100. If out of 3100 dealers that are Chrysler dealers, 2,728 of them donate to the Republican Party, and 726 of them were closed it's only by coincidence due to the vast majority of them being Republican donators.

726 out of 789 that were closed donated to the GOP?

If that's a fact then it's 92% of the closing dealer ships donated to the GOP.

88% ----> 92%



Nothing to see here ... seriously.

 

[Chris]

Lying, theiving car dealers are 85% Republican.

What a surprise!

 

[DavidS]

Thanks david. You just show silver is an idiot. See that 88% of dealerships are republican owned but 94% of closing are Republican. And wonder about the differences within battle ground states. Right now the closing aren't proportionate by a 6% margin.

What are you talking about? Are you able to use your brain or not - because I'm worried about you here.

Let me repeat: None of the dealerships that were closed had anything at all to do with their donations to x party. The reason why a vast majority of car dealerships that were closed donated to the Republican Party is because a vast majority of car dealerships DONATED TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. Again, look at the demographics. Suburbian older white men who are well to do. Perfect demographic for the Republican party. You can't expect 88% of the dealerships that were closed to be Republican donators just because 88% of the dealerships that were closed were Republican donators.

789 dealerships were closed out of about 3100. If out of 3100 dealers that are Chrysler dealers, 2,728 of them donate to the Republican Party, and 726 of them were closed it's only by coincidence due to the vast majority of them being Republican donators.

726 out of 789 that were closed donated to the GOP?

If that's a fact then it's 92% of the closing dealer ships donated to the GOP.

88% ----> 92%



Nothing to see here ... seriously.

Honestly - I'm trying to explain this to you here.

Let's take a hypothetical situation that the Obama administration had no idea who donated to what campaign last year and decided to close 789 dealerships and somehow, by someway, 92% of the 789 donated to the GOP last year.

 

[Article 15]

What are you talking about? Are you able to use your brain or not - because I'm worried about you here.

Let me repeat: None of the dealerships that were closed had anything at all to do with their donations to x party. The reason why a vast majority of car dealerships that were closed donated to the Republican Party is because a vast majority of car dealerships DONATED TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. Again, look at the demographics. Suburbian older white men who are well to do. Perfect demographic for the Republican party. You can't expect 88% of the dealerships that were closed to be Republican donators just because 88% of the dealerships that were closed were Republican donators.

789 dealerships were closed out of about 3100. If out of 3100 dealers that are Chrysler dealers, 2,728 of them donate to the Republican Party, and 726 of them were closed it's only by coincidence due to the vast majority of them being Republican donators.

726 out of 789 that were closed donated to the GOP?

If that's a fact then it's 92% of the closing dealer ships donated to the GOP.

88% ----> 92%



Nothing to see here ... seriously.

Honestly - I'm trying to explain this to you here.

Let's take a hypothetical situation that the Obama administration had no idea who donated to what campaign last year and decided to close 789 dealerships and somehow, by someway, 92% of the 789 donated to the GOP last year.

I know.

I was being serious.

 

[Sinatra]

Lying, theiving car dealers are 85% Republican.

What a surprise!

Aren't you a real estate agent?

C'mon now........

 

[Fraulein Hilda]

Lying, theiving car dealers are 85% Republican.

What a surprise!

Aren't you a real estate agent?

C'mon now........

You'd be surprised at the left wing leanings of real estate agents. Their lobbying arms are always going to government to increase their pool of potential buyers. They were all in favor of no downpayment loans, liar loans, larger limits on FHA financiing, lower buyer qualifications.

The dirty little secret is that they were big fans of the lending practices that lead to the mortgage meltdown. I belong to a trade organization and I get their PAC propaganda all the time.