Vigilante
Diamond Member
- Banned
- #1
WikiLeaks confirms this, thank you, Julian!
COMPLETELY CONTRADICT state polling (AP, ABC, USA Today)
Political Ref ^ | 10/27/16
Debunking the national polls that COMPLETELY CONTRADICT state polling (AP, ABC, USA Today)
If you include enough Democrats in your sample, Hillary will always win, and why 2012 is not the new floor for Democratic turnout
AP/GFK Partisan distribution (Try not to laugh)
Democrat Sample +12
Hillary leading by 14! (yes, this is rigged poll)
ABC Partisan distribution
Democrat Sample +9
Hillary leading by 9
USA Today/Suffolk Partisan distribution
Democrat Sample +6
Hillary leading by 9
We've got some bad national polls this time around
First, it is true that the party ID question in polling is not an actual report of the real party distribution in a voting group. It represents what people currently want to associate with, not how they are registered. The reason it's a good way to analyze the credibility of a poll, however, is that exit polls use the same method to determine party distribution. I am not comparing apples to oranges by looking at the party distribution in phone/Internet polls and comparing them to exit polls.
The exit polls represent the only data of party distribution we ever receive. The exit polls are not actual hard voter data; they are just polls like the ones we are doing here except that they derive from people who actually turn out and vote, but they are, nonetheless, just polls. We want the party ID in a phone/Internet poll to match the exit polls because that means it will be more accurate.
In truth, Democrats do outnumber Republicans in this country and they will probably outnumber them in the election. Of course the real question is by how much? The AP poll assumed a +12 Democratic voter turnout. If this happened, no Republican would win any national election. So let us dispense with that absurd poll.
The ABC partisan assumption of a +9 Democrat vote is also too high. Again, if Democrats outnumber Republicans by almost ten percent, that leaves the GOP with precious little hope of winning any national election, and that's just not the makeup of our nation right now. With enthusiasm for each candidate at least being a draw and Democrats having less of a tendency to turn out in general, that +9 Democrat advantage will likely not materialize.
These kind of misleading polls really strike at their credibility as pollsters. They seem to want the big Hillary lead, probably to throw off the poll averages and suppress Republican voter turnout. I write this only because there are good methodological reasons to use different voter turnout models. It's just bad poll modeling. I believe they are actually sacrificing credibility when everyone is looking to game the system, and yes, I know this is a bold thing to assert. They are transparently embracing bad polling methods and reach an incredible result, so you tell me why.
But the real question, will it work? I have my doubts. I think this kind of thing actually can hurt Democrats because Republicans and Republican leaners get their news from alternative media. Democrats are more likely to hear it because they listen to mainstream media sources. Hearing a poll like this could actually give a voter who wants Hillary to win, but may not actually want to go vote, an excuse to go to the movies rather than vote.
Hillary Clinton: Ignore the polls "because we’ve got to turn people out”
So now for the USA Today/Suffolk distribution of 38% Democrat, 32% Republican and 24% Independent. That number looks familiar . . . oh right, it matches the 2012 partisan distribution exactly. I can see that assumption possibly making sense. If Democrats were filling arenas and minorities and young people were going to turn out in historic numbers like they have never turned out before, then I could buy it. That's what happened in 2012. Pollsters missed that in 2012 and they are making up for that mistake by assuming it almost across the board now. That is except for the pollsters that didn't miss it, namely the IBD/TIPP and LA Times polls, both of which got the distribution right in 2012. They are showing a tie race now, so perhaps we ought to take a lesson, but don't tell that to Larry Sabato who just loves the assumption that the 2012 turnout model will repeat itself.
COMPLETELY CONTRADICT state polling (AP, ABC, USA Today)
Political Ref ^ | 10/27/16
Debunking the national polls that COMPLETELY CONTRADICT state polling (AP, ABC, USA Today)
If you include enough Democrats in your sample, Hillary will always win, and why 2012 is not the new floor for Democratic turnout
AP/GFK Partisan distribution (Try not to laugh)
Democrat Sample +12
Hillary leading by 14! (yes, this is rigged poll)
ABC Partisan distribution
Democrat Sample +9
Hillary leading by 9
USA Today/Suffolk Partisan distribution
Democrat Sample +6
Hillary leading by 9
We've got some bad national polls this time around
First, it is true that the party ID question in polling is not an actual report of the real party distribution in a voting group. It represents what people currently want to associate with, not how they are registered. The reason it's a good way to analyze the credibility of a poll, however, is that exit polls use the same method to determine party distribution. I am not comparing apples to oranges by looking at the party distribution in phone/Internet polls and comparing them to exit polls.
The exit polls represent the only data of party distribution we ever receive. The exit polls are not actual hard voter data; they are just polls like the ones we are doing here except that they derive from people who actually turn out and vote, but they are, nonetheless, just polls. We want the party ID in a phone/Internet poll to match the exit polls because that means it will be more accurate.
In truth, Democrats do outnumber Republicans in this country and they will probably outnumber them in the election. Of course the real question is by how much? The AP poll assumed a +12 Democratic voter turnout. If this happened, no Republican would win any national election. So let us dispense with that absurd poll.
The ABC partisan assumption of a +9 Democrat vote is also too high. Again, if Democrats outnumber Republicans by almost ten percent, that leaves the GOP with precious little hope of winning any national election, and that's just not the makeup of our nation right now. With enthusiasm for each candidate at least being a draw and Democrats having less of a tendency to turn out in general, that +9 Democrat advantage will likely not materialize.
These kind of misleading polls really strike at their credibility as pollsters. They seem to want the big Hillary lead, probably to throw off the poll averages and suppress Republican voter turnout. I write this only because there are good methodological reasons to use different voter turnout models. It's just bad poll modeling. I believe they are actually sacrificing credibility when everyone is looking to game the system, and yes, I know this is a bold thing to assert. They are transparently embracing bad polling methods and reach an incredible result, so you tell me why.
But the real question, will it work? I have my doubts. I think this kind of thing actually can hurt Democrats because Republicans and Republican leaners get their news from alternative media. Democrats are more likely to hear it because they listen to mainstream media sources. Hearing a poll like this could actually give a voter who wants Hillary to win, but may not actually want to go vote, an excuse to go to the movies rather than vote.
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Hillary Clinton: Ignore the polls "because we’ve got to turn people out”
So now for the USA Today/Suffolk distribution of 38% Democrat, 32% Republican and 24% Independent. That number looks familiar . . . oh right, it matches the 2012 partisan distribution exactly. I can see that assumption possibly making sense. If Democrats were filling arenas and minorities and young people were going to turn out in historic numbers like they have never turned out before, then I could buy it. That's what happened in 2012. Pollsters missed that in 2012 and they are making up for that mistake by assuming it almost across the board now. That is except for the pollsters that didn't miss it, namely the IBD/TIPP and LA Times polls, both of which got the distribution right in 2012. They are showing a tie race now, so perhaps we ought to take a lesson, but don't tell that to Larry Sabato who just loves the assumption that the 2012 turnout model will repeat itself.
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Meanwhile, Wikileaks confirms Slick Willie and Crooked Hillary made millions in Pay to Play schemes in the US government. Folks the US government is supposed to be a model for the world. The Clintons and Obama made it into banana republic. Viet Nam has less corruption.
