Remember when that was one of the WH talking points in the early stages of the pandemic? No reason to panic. COVID will go away when the weather gets warm. It's all under control.
Turns out, they were wrong..........in too many ways to discuss. One of the more demonstrably provable things they were wrong about was the comparison to the flu.
We wiped out the flu this year. Could we do it again?
That's what happens to influenza type viruses when people wear masks and practice social distancing. Unfortunately, COVID is a highly transmissible virus. More so than the regular flu.
The point being the COVID protocols dismissed as ineffective, infringements on freedom, a waste of time by conservatives.........they work. And if we had not implemented them, if we had not locked down the economy for a while, the infection rate and death toll would be far worse than it is.
It turns out everyone was wrong about Covid. We heard something every day. The only consistent thing was be very afraid. A 99.7% survival rate is not a killer disease.
In the early stages of the epidemic in January and February, people were making educated and uneducated guesses because there was not enough good data. By April medical science had a good idea of what we were facing and how reduce the spread. It was the White House that was making claims that the virus would just go away by summer, by fall, and by election day. There was an election to be won and Covid-19 was a threat so it was downplayed which made preventing the spread more difficult.
Except slowing the infection spread rate is what prevents the epidemic from ending, and that eventually accumulated a much LARGER total death amount.
Herd immunity is what ends all epidemics normally, but herd immunity can't end any epidemic if you are "flattening the curve", and in effect conserving hosts for the virus to it can't die out.
Herd immunity was the way epidemics ended before modern medicine but that does not mean it is desirable today.
There two ways to end an epidemic.
1. Allow nature to run it's course with no need for masks, social distancing, or vaccines. Once enough people develop an immunity by becoming infected, we will achieve herd immunity and the virus dies out.
2. Vaccinate to reach herd immunity and use preventive measure to lessen infection and death.
Reaching herd immunity naturally as opposed to vaccinations is bad for the health of the nation as well as the economy. It is estimated that Covid-19 herd immunity will be reached when 70% of the population is immune. After 1 year of covid-19 we have 500,000 dead, 30 million cases. If we relied on natural immunity, we would not reach herd immunity for about 7 years, possibly at lot longer as new strains occur. The number of dead could reach 3 million or more. Under those conditions, it would be impossible to get the country back to normal, and we have a sluggish economy at best for many years.
Wrong.
First of all, there are 2 main ways to end an epidemic.
One is herd immunity, but that has 3 was to happen. Vaccine is one, natural is another, but the third is variolation, or deliberate infection.
But when there is too high of a lethality rate with an epidemic, the second way to end an epidemic is quarantine, with contact tracing. That is how they deal with Ebola.
When you suggest vaccines are safer, of course that is correct, but not once has any epidemic in progress been stopped by vaccines before covid-19. That is because vaccine normally take about 6 years to make and test. For example, the polio epidemic that started in 1948, was pretty much over before the Salk vaccine became available in 1958.
So then no, vaccines are almost irrelevant to ending epidemics in progress.
What they usually are for, it to prevent future epidemics.
Like smallpox vaccine was not to end one, but to wipe it out and prevent another in the future.
And while you are right that covid-19 was estimated to need 70% of the population to be immune in order to end the epidemic with herd immunity, you are wrong about everything else.
The reason covid-19 lasted a year and killed so many people is because we deliberately forced that to happen.
Normally what ends epidemics is the initial spike uses up all the easy available hosts, so then it dies out.
By "flattening the curve", we conserved hosts and ensured the epidemic could not possibly die out.
We artificially stretched the epidemic out much longer than it would have lasted normally, which would have been a couple of months at most.
But we could have accelerated herd immunity even more by deliberately infecting young volunteers who essentially would not have been at any real risk.
We could easily have ended it in less than a month if we have accelerated it as fast as possible.
And the death total then would have been much lower. Since young people are all inherently immune, and half the population is already immune, from the high asymptomatic rate, then only 30 million would have had to get infected and recover, for the 70% herd immunity to be reached. And since the death rate for healthy young people is 40 times less than that of the elderly or compromised, we could have reduced the death rate by a factor of about 200.
So forget about vaccinations as a strategy.
It was just an accident that the 2009 SARs vaccine research was able to be applied to covid-19.
Normally that is not possible, and normally vaccine are NOT the way to end any epidemic in progress.
It simply takes too long.
Never have vaccines ever ended any epidemic in progress, before.